[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

Well, I have now mostly "invested" the sales proceeds I finally received in April. I took my time putting about 25% of it into blue chip stocks and ETFs. Most I kept for a while in old fashioned saving and brokerage bank accounts but since they pay so little I have been moving it into T-bills. Most are 6 month and will reward me with about 3% if I keep them until early 2023. I will definitely keep what I need for income taxes April 15, 2023 in T-bills.

My conundrum now is are we in a bear market rally?

I believe all info is factored into current market pricing. As a result I think that the odds of a recession are in current pricing.

From my economic and grad school days always taught that 2 negative GNP quarters in a row indicate we are in a recession and believe we are in one now.

Having said this and with market increase in July thinking that I will shortly invest additional funds into the mutual funds I favor

[coralway]

Been in AAPL since June 1986, and added more recently. Expecting it to go to about $200 before they do another 3;1 split. Market is doing ok, but we have to stop doing these unpaid for multi trillion dollar tax cuts for the top 1%.

We are on the right path now.

[MrFlorida]

Wall Street Roulette

[RPDaly]

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[RPDaly]

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[Plinker]

Originally Posted by RPDaly

Absolutely in a bear market rally. Not uncommon. Happened during the Tech Bubble and 2008 Financial Collapse bear markets multiple times. Might even be labeled a dead cat bounce

I agree with those that suggest we are in a bear-market rally.
Our government has flooded our economy with trillions of dollars and has just added another $700+ billion. To label the most recent helicopter money as the “Inflation Reduction Act “ is pure folly.
Households in the lower income quartile and those on a fixed income (some retirees) are always the hardest hit when inflation spikes. Especially, if it runs red-hot at 8-9%. The next quartile of lower middle class to middle class households have or are on the verge of depleting any savings they may have been able to accumulate during the pandemic. At some point, the upper middle class will follow suit. Many potential homebuyers are finding it difficult, if not impossible, to purchase a new home as the interest portion of their new proposed mortgage has doubled. The housing industry has recently declared that they are in a recession. Walmart disclosed that their wealthier clientele are now price-shopping.
Ultimately, inflation will become the tail that is wagging the dog (equities) as more and more income will be devoted to essentials. Yes, incomes are up but it can’t keep up with inflation running at at 40-year high. I don’t believe we have tested the lows as the Fed has no choice but to continue to raise rates substantially to tame the inflation beast. Unfortunately, this often leads to a recession and a hard landing.
IMO, defense is the game to play as opposed to chasing a bear-market rally.
One caveat: I could be way off base and completely wrong. Time will tell.

[Stu from NYC]

Ask 10 experts their opinion and you will get 11 opinions.

[CoachKandSportsguy]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

Ask 10 experts their opinion and you will get 11 opinions.

The market is torn between slowly declining product inflation and continuing to incline service inflation. Product declining inflation is due to over deliveries of pandemic related goods to retailers. Service inflation is stickier due to rent equivalent / rent increases as a result of house price increases and slum lords not getting rent payments for about a year, yet utilities and taxes still payable, so they aren't going to let tenants get away with that again. . along with labor shortages pushing up wages.

From that tug of war, the risk is for continued increase in interest rates uncertainty from the FED. Only the very optimistic think that the FED is completely done. Remember that as interest rates rise government debt interest payments starts to crowd out investment and govt operating needs.

Secondarily, the geo political environment is very uncertain, with China practicing war games with Russia, Putin waiting to squeeze europe by shutting off gas during the winter, if he remains alive that long, and China wanting to subjugate Taiwan by one thousand cuts, which could cause the semi conductor goods delivery to collapse

I am still long XLU, utilities, long bonds with occasional hedging using TLT puts, long some hospital reits in the retirement account, as well as short some ****cos in the taxable account, Short MTCH, RUN, and AN.

most all positions are up except my long term TSLA puts, waiting on the outcome of the delaware chancery court, and the NTSA investigations to all the deaths. SpaceX lost its starlink govt funding, so doubtful that continues. my shorts are slightly underwater in this rally.

So no, not all information is currently priced into the market, from the uncertainties listed above. That's a theory which can't be proven true or false, so it remains along with efficient market hypothesis which depends upon that theory in the preeminent U of Chicago dogma.

but YMMV

everyone should have bought bbby in late june at below $5. . . .
better than a lottery ticket in an IRA

finance troglodyte

[Viperguy]

Use the same advisor your Congressman uses.

[Caymus]

Glad I don't own Bed Bath and Beyond. They recently took a beating, and I don't see how they can compete against Target and Amazon. The CFO probably couldn't handle the stress and recently committed suicide.

Bed Bath & Beyond exec Gustavo Arnal ID'd as NYC 'Jenga Building' jumper: source

[CoachKandSportsguy]

BBBY has has a negative return on equity for over 10 years, poor business model and management failure with share buybacks, etc. . poor allocation of financial resources.

The aren't the only ones, there is class of financial zombies, such that operating cash flow is negative and therefore requires continual additional equity funding. . . CVNA is a picture perfect example, and I started shorting it in the high 300's and continued in and out and stopped when it hit $20, look at stocks with >100 P/Es in the past year or two and very high P/R ratios or start with negative cash flows, and you will see lots of spectacular short opportunities. I personally am short a zombie with questionable accounting (RUN), a very high multiple stock (MTCH), and a consumer interest rate sensitive company, inventory constrained company, (AN).

BYND is another I tried to short but there was no float available. They are all around, and one can make more money per investment with shorts, than with longs. . unless you go with some chinese manipulated pick. . .

These companies are where balance sheet and cash flow statement analysis is very important, but not a focus of media headlines, because there is not one number involved. Also important is a fundamental forecast to see when companies will have to change or to go back into the market for additional funding, as there are several different ways of doing so, and each has its own hills to die upon

good luck

[tophcfa]

Originally Posted by RPDaly

Might even be labeled a dead cat bounce

Been a long time since I heard that one : )

[manaboutown]

September is historically the worst month for stocks. That and given The Fed is likely to continue to pump up interest rates I do not expect the market to rise soon. We will see more bear market bounces I imagine.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

September is historically the worst month for stocks. That and given The Fed is likely to continue to pump up interest rates I do not expect the market to rise soon. We will see more bear market bounces I imagine.

Since everyone expects the fed to continue to raise interest rates have to figure that is already factored into the market.

[melpetezrinski]

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC

Since everyone expects the fed to continue to raise interest rates have to figure that is already factored into the market.

You are probably correct in that "everyone expects the fed to continue to raise interest rates" but I'm 100% certain that "everyone" doesn't agree on how much to raise, how fast you get there, how long you keep them there and what to do next. Many were thinking that we would actually see rate cuts in 2023, which I think is now off the table. In my opinion, the Fed needs to get rates close to 4% as fast as possible, so 2 more 75 bps and pause.