Everyone has to evaluate their own particular retirement situation. If you don't have the smarts or desire to do it yourself then you have to find professional help. The crash in 2020 was ugly with market loss of 30%. With our financial company we are with we only went down 11%. So thankful for them.
Social security alone will not put you in a good place. If your fortunate enough to have a pension too then your blessed. We are riding the wave as we have great health and just turned 70 with parents that lived into their 90's. We have a nice nest egg saved and real-estate rental property that could be sold if need be.
I remember back in 1987 when I was dumb/stupid I cashed in my 401K as I got scared.
OUCH!!!!!!

More and more thinking that the stock market is now price with full expectation of a recession and might well be at the bottom. Than again it might not.

Once went to a financial seminar and the guy selling his services said he had a computer program that will almost always predict the highs and lows of the market so you will know exactly what to do. So the only thing we got out of the evening was a very nice dinner and knowing stay well away from this guy.

Are all attempts at market timing bad?
During our accumulation phase (working years), we were 90/10. Now that we have entered our distribution phase, we are 25/75. Yes, a very conservative portfolio. The 75% and SS easily covers our expenses while the 25% is to counter inflation. We diligently saved all we could for 30+ years in low-cost index funds. We split our qualified contributions between ROTH and traditional accounts (IRA, 401k and 403b). There came a time when we were no longer eligible for a ROTH. I never sold and kept on buying when the markets cratered and have been rewarded due to the wonders of compounded interest. At the time, I had no idea how powerful a ROTH IRA would become.
However, now with less time ahead than behind me, I have reconsidered the topic of market timing. I’m not talking about attempts to profit on arbitrage-type actions. I spent a lot of time last year thinking about what our future state of the economy might look like after 3 consecutive years of double-digit stock returns. Run-away inflation, chip shortages, cargo issues, Ukraine war (only a possibility at the time which came to fruition), etc. Some of our elected officials wanted to inject trillions more into the economy. I shudder to think where we would be had they been successful. I just couldn’t find any positives to support a buy-hold strategy.
As such, I sold my S&P 500 ETF and went to cash in November, 2021. I had deduced we were in for a major correction and potentially a recession. It turned out to be a prescient move based on, what I believe, was due diligence and not emotions. If I buy back the ETF shares now, I will have far more shares and realize a six-figure return when the market recovers. Obviously, the question is: When do I make this decision? Personally, I believe we have more pain ahead and will postpone the repurchase. However, I will not hesitate to pull the trigger, fully realizing there is no way to know when the bottom will hit.
So, was it luck or a well thought out plan? Is market timing all bad?

What you did worked for you and that is what is important. Timing is good if you get it right but nobody gets it right all or most of the time.

I’m one of the unlucky ones that had GWG bonds and lost half my investments when they filed Chapter 11. My CFP said he got taken too. Not sure I believe that, but I plan to enter a class action lawsuit to see if I can recover anything.

It's always interesting to read/hear about anonymous people who timed the market perfectly, or just happened to buy a stock like BRK-A - decades ago.

it’s seems everyone on this site is just way ahead of the average investor , I wish I was as smart as most on here today

I bought Berkshire, but I also bought Enron and WorldCom :doh:

Yes mostly old toothless lions rewriting their glory days. As sure as the sun rises in the east there will be hot air and bragging in retirement communities.

Not to brag, but I bought a boatload of Enron.......

All these bright individuals on this topic!

I feel like such a fool by buying low cost indexed funds and dollar cost averaging. Sure, it made me a millionaire but if I was as brilliant as the market timers here I would have more!

But probably vastly less and I'd still be working...

Technical analysis is not perfect but works well. Its emotionless. The market works on algos now. the bulk of trading is done by programs. Must adapt to new environment. My portfolio speaks for itself. No one cares how or why you made money. Its binary

Yep. The Quants - Wikipedia

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I sold a large part of my portfolio in Dec 2021. So, that was a little too early, but it seemed like the market was overdue for a big correction. You can't buy at the PERFECT low or sell at the PERFECT HIGH. I am satisfied to sell at a CLOSE to a high. And in the future, I will be satisfied if I can buy back close to a low.

The only people that always make $$$ are the advisors!
I’ve never used an advisor and the last 3 years before 2022, my lowest average year gains were over 30%. Vanguard index funds are the best along with Apple and energy funds.
I’ve never sold a share during the last 2 recessions/covid in 2020, but this year, I sold everything because this time, things are much different. You can’t time the market, but I got out when my funds were at their highest. We are far from rock bottom in the market, more pain to come.

My financial advisor has helped me achieve my goals through the working years and into retirement. No regrets.

What goes up comes down. It is all Monopoly Money, just paper, unless you sell, and monetize the loss. Interest rates are still cheap. If you need cash, borrow. Otherwise, hang on, this roller coaster is a long way from bottom.

Not so sure about that. Much of what is likely to happen is already factored into pricing. Till will tell.

"For example, 85.1 percent of actively-managed large-cap funds underperformed the S&P 500 last year, according to SPIVA data from S&P, which measures the performance gap between actively-managed and index funds. In 2021, some 79.6 percent of all domestic U.S. funds underperformed the S&P Composite 1500, the S&P equivalent of a total market index."

From: 'The democratization of investing': Index funds officially overtake active managers

As long as one has enough dollars to get them thru to their final breath it really doesn’t matter. I don’t honestly get the hand wringing over the market’s ups and downs. If you have structured your retirement correctly, your investments are largely insensitive to market volatility, your unsecured debt is zero, house paid for with no mortgage, you have sufficient cash flow to support yourself and your kids are educated living their life with a solid career.

For those yapping and fretting about leaving inheritances to family, you did something wrong somewhere. My kids are educated and working in solid careers supporting themselves. The last thing they need from me is an after death hand out. What is left after estate taxes and final expenses will all go to charity.

Agree with you except for last paragraph.

Nothing wrong with enjoying your retirement to the fullest and leaving some dollars to kids and grandkids to make their life better and easier.

Some of us are in the same situation. If you do not mind sharing your ideas to which charity or charities are you leaving your estate?

Your financial planner is not a market timer. I would not expect them to tell you to sell your investments, pay capital gain taxes and then invest what is left some time in the future.

I would expect then to help you not panic and sell.

Reality, we are all uncomfortable, some need an advisor to perhaps, hold their hand. Perhaps, for some someone besides themselves to blame.
Things are far from what they used to be. Pensions are far more rare than they used to be. That forces people to fund their own retirement. At one time, not that long ago you could build a treasury bond ladder. Treasuries would pay the rate of inflation plus 2%.
That 2% would cover the taxes. On treasuries you pay fed tax but not state or local tax. Today the ten year treasury is paying less than 3%.

Our current economic reality. The CPI is now roughly 8%. You pay that with after tax money. On top of that the stock market has lost roughly 14% in the past six months.
This year year to date is the first year the market has been down in roughly 15.

Hindsight is always 20/20. Woulda, shoulda, coulda, mighta. With the CPI at 8% and you need to pay that with after tax money, in CASH you are losing roughly 12%.

Where to hide-BEATS ME. Some may wish to look at TIPS. They dare not say so but they are a clear indication that our government plans on continuing to fuel inflation.

In terms of leaving money to charity, which charity to leave it to, should be YOUR CHOICE not a choice made by others.

There is no shortage of worthy causes. We regularly see well done ads on TV. We all need to realize those ads cost money. That money comes from donations to the charity.

People who send donations often do not realize how much of each dollar you give goes to expenses including often obscene income packages for staff.

The information is public.

Direct charity. I used to work in New York City. The panhandlers are crawling all over the place. I only gave once. I guy said I'm not gonna lie. I need money for a drink.
Honest and I knew 100% was going where he said it was going.

That is how it should be but possibly not how it is. Some financial advisors are paid by the hour so their compensation is the same no matter what you do. Others work on commission. Annuities pay a high rate of commission so you will find them pushing annuities and other high commission products.

A financial advisor tied to a bank or a brokerage will of course not advise you of better choices with another bank or another brokerage.

Very true, how they get paid will have a direct bearing on what they push you into.

Seems to me a fee only planner would have the most reason to guide you according to what you need and want.

There is no shortage of unworthy causes also.

I would disagree that the information is public. Have you ever read a Form 990 that charities are required to file annually with the IRS? I have read a lot of them, and they rarely contain clear and accurate information about the charity. There are thousands, if not millions, of charities. And a lot of IRS approved charities (501c3) are nothing more than scams.

And for a lot of them once you make a contribution you get mail from them every couple of weeks asking for more. And lots of them thank you for your contribution by sending address labels more money that does not go to the cause they are soliciting for.

One of my aunts died in 1994 and I handled her estate. 28 years later I am still getting mail addressed to her from charities claiming to aid American Indians.

I have never had one so not paying anything. Spent a good chunk of my 401k when I went out on disability. Figured my wife could sell my toys and get my life insurance when I die but wanted to do as much as I could before the end.

Amazingly our son gets mail here from charities over and over. Never lived here and went off to college 25 years ago.

Villages Investment Education Club (villagesie.weebly.com) meeting, Thursday, June 9, @3:00 ‘til 4:30 PM, at Sea Breeze

Meeting Topic:

“The Financial Landscape in the Villages Area” (How to tell the difference in the large number of companies and their different offerings.)

Should be interesting.

On June 23, the club will have a dividend discussion.

Boomer

Markets will go up and will go down it is the long run that you are paying your advisor to help you manage.

I have more address labels than I'll ever use and they came from charities that I never donated to.

We started using them for sealing the back of envelopes so supply is more reasonable these days.

Charity begins at home.
I have college funds for all 5 grandkids.
My children are educated and successful, but I still give them money while I am above ground, and can see what kind of money managers they are.,
I doubt that Social Security will be there for them, so they will inherit whatever I have leftover.
I tithe to Charities now.
I like seeing where my $$ are going.

Financial adviser?

Never had one, never will. Do your own dd.