[jedalton]

three letters, VTI

[mkjelenbaas]

Originally Posted by Babubhat

Not expecting many got people out when the should have. What excuses do they give you? Wait 10 years and it will be fine. Many don’t have that long

Curious - do you know anyone knows when to “get out”? Doubtful!!

[ithos]

For several decades now every pull back in the economy was rescued by the Fed Reserve using their bag of tricks. During this time far more advisors lost clients by being bearish rather than by being bullish because "they fought the Fed."

Interestingly this time "fighting the Fed" meant being bullish since they were quite vocal that they were going to aggressively raise rates to get inflation under control.

Add to that the governments war on oil, the embargo on Russia, mind blowing Federal deficit spending and soaring inflation, most financial professionals just kept on being bullish. Why? Well, like the Geico commercial said. "Because that is what they do"



.

[TomPerry]

Originally Posted by MrFlorida

If investment counselors knew the market ups and downs, they would all be rich, and not need your commissions to make a living.

And you think individual investors looking to TOTV for investment advise are smart investors? Everyone will tell you about their WINNERS, but NOT THEIR LOSERS!!! The road to Hell is paved with Good Intentions and the road to Financial Ruin is paved E-Trade Trade Tickets!!!

[Ptmckiou]

One great thing about a down market is BARGAINS! Especially, legacy stocks for the kids like Apple and Tesla. Trick is finding the bottom. Since my investments are for inheritance, there is plenty of time. I’m in for the long haul.

[Joe C.]

I don't have a financial advisor ..... I do have a fiduciary, and I've been doing better than expected.

[MidWestIA]

Take a big % out and probably miss the big run back up and stay down. I don't want to tempt you to play the market if you don't put in the time & effort to learn how you will probably be worse otherwise.

For a non investor get a low cost advisor and have mainly low expense ratio etfs & funds but mainly indexes it is too hard to pick stocks and time well. S&P 500 VOO and total market VTSAX dividend growth VIG SCHD maybe QQQ for tech

The more your advisor buys & sells the more they make doesn't matter if you do.

[BlackHarley]

Timing the market is a fools game. You have to be right twice. Once when to get out, the other is when to get back in....if ever.

[manaboutown]

Originally Posted by Ptmckiou

One great thing about a down market is BARGAINS! Especially, legacy stocks for the kids like Apple and Tesla. Trick is finding the bottom. Since my investments are for inheritance, there is plenty of time. I’m in for the long haul.

For many years I have been in for the long haul. It must be my nature. I was 80% solid stocks and 20% cash until a few weeks ago when a significant real estate investment property I had held for 37 years sold for a crazily high price. That brought me up to 50% cash. Last week I put my toe in the water and bought a little stock. Not much, just a few shares. I am taking my time and not in a hurry as I see buying stocks right now as trying to catch a falling knife. The Fed plans to raise the prime rate in June and again in July. Inflation is running wild. Many people have become financially stressed. A recession is on the horizon. And so on...

[Teemotay]

Originally Posted by Cranford61

If he were so astute, he would not need to sell. I’ve done unbelievably well by just hanging in there…doing nothing. Buying 10 sh of BRK in 1992 a $16,600@ was helpful. Thought I was crazy since it had been $8000 earlier that year. If this astute investor was selling prematurely, it was because he had a profit…and no one got rich paying capital gains tax. He had less to reinvest in his next adventure.
Clark Clifford, a renown Washington lawyer, once analyzed a complex deal. His summary was 2 words, “do nothing”. And enclosed a bill for $25,000.

One word......”plastics”

[mrf0151]

Everyone has to evaluate their own particular retirement situation. If you don't have the smarts or desire to do it yourself then you have to find professional help. The crash in 2020 was ugly with market loss of 30%. With our financial company we are with we only went down 11%. So thankful for them.
Social security alone will not put you in a good place. If your fortunate enough to have a pension too then your blessed. We are riding the wave as we have great health and just turned 70 with parents that lived into their 90's. We have a nice nest egg saved and real-estate rental property that could be sold if need be.
I remember back in 1987 when I was dumb/stupid I cashed in my 401K as I got scared.
OUCH!!!!!!

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

For many years I have been in for the long haul. It must be my nature. I was 80% solid stocks and 20% cash until a few weeks ago when a significant real estate investment property I had held for 37 years sold for a crazily high price. That brought me up to 50% cash. Last week I put my toe in the water and bought a little stock. Not much, just a few shares. I am taking my time and not in a hurry as I see buying stocks right now as trying to catch a falling knife. The Fed plans to raise the prime rate in June and again in July. Inflation is running wild. Many people have become financially stressed. A recession is on the horizon. And so on...

More and more thinking that the stock market is now price with full expectation of a recession and might well be at the bottom. Than again it might not.

Once went to a financial seminar and the guy selling his services said he had a computer program that will almost always predict the highs and lows of the market so you will know exactly what to do. So the only thing we got out of the evening was a very nice dinner and knowing stay well away from this guy.

[Plinker]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

For many years I have been in for the long haul. It must be my nature. I was 80% solid stocks and 20% cash until a few weeks ago when a significant real estate investment property I had held for 37 years sold for a crazily high price. That brought me up to 50% cash. Last week I put my toe in the water and bought a little stock. Not much, just a few shares. I am taking my time and not in a hurry as I see buying stocks right now as trying to catch a falling knife. The Fed plans to raise the prime rate in June and again in July. Inflation is running wild. Many people have become financially stressed. A recession is on the horizon. And so on...

Are all attempts at market timing bad?
During our accumulation phase (working years), we were 90/10. Now that we have entered our distribution phase, we are 25/75. Yes, a very conservative portfolio. The 75% and SS easily covers our expenses while the 25% is to counter inflation. We diligently saved all we could for 30+ years in low-cost index funds. We split our qualified contributions between ROTH and traditional accounts (IRA, 401k and 403b). There came a time when we were no longer eligible for a ROTH. I never sold and kept on buying when the markets cratered and have been rewarded due to the wonders of compounded interest. At the time, I had no idea how powerful a ROTH IRA would become.
However, now with less time ahead than behind me, I have reconsidered the topic of market timing. I’m not talking about attempts to profit on arbitrage-type actions. I spent a lot of time last year thinking about what our future state of the economy might look like after 3 consecutive years of double-digit stock returns. Run-away inflation, chip shortages, cargo issues, Ukraine war (only a possibility at the time which came to fruition), etc. Some of our elected officials wanted to inject trillions more into the economy. I shudder to think where we would be had they been successful. I just couldn’t find any positives to support a buy-hold strategy.
As such, I sold my S&P 500 ETF and went to cash in November, 2021. I had deduced we were in for a major correction and potentially a recession. It turned out to be a prescient move based on, what I believe, was due diligence and not emotions. If I buy back the ETF shares now, I will have far more shares and realize a six-figure return when the market recovers. Obviously, the question is: When do I make this decision? Personally, I believe we have more pain ahead and will postpone the repurchase. However, I will not hesitate to pull the trigger, fully realizing there is no way to know when the bottom will hit.
So, was it luck or a well thought out plan? Is market timing all bad?

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by Plinker

Are all attempts at market timing bad?
During our accumulation phase (working years), we were 90/10. Now that we have entered our distribution phase, we are 25/75. Yes, a very conservative portfolio. The 75% and SS easily covers our expenses while the 25% is to counter inflation. We diligently saved all we could for 30+ years in low-cost index funds. We split our qualified contributions between ROTH and traditional accounts (IRA, 401k and 403b). There came a time when we were no longer eligible for a ROTH. I never sold and kept on buying when the markets cratered and have been rewarded due to the wonders of compounded interest. At the time, I had no idea how powerful a ROTH IRA would become.
However, now with less time ahead than behind me, I have reconsidered the topic of market timing. I’m not talking about attempts to profit on arbitrage-type actions. I spent a lot of time last year thinking about what our future state of the economy might look like after 3 consecutive years of double-digit stock returns. Run-away inflation, chip shortages, cargo issues, Ukraine war (only a possibility at the time which came to fruition), etc. Some of our elected officials wanted to inject trillions more into the economy. I shudder to think where we would be had they been successful. I just couldn’t find any positives to support a buy-hold strategy.
As such, I sold my S&P 500 ETF and went to cash in November, 2021. I had deduced we were in for a major correction and potentially a recession. It turned out to be a prescient move based on, what I believe, was due diligence and not emotions. If I buy back the ETF shares now, I will have far more shares and realize a six-figure return when the market recovers. Obviously, the question is: When do I make this decision? Personally, I believe we have more pain ahead and will postpone the repurchase. However, I will not hesitate to pull the trigger, fully realizing there is no way to know when the bottom will hit.
So, was it luck or a well thought out plan? Is market timing all bad?

What you did worked for you and that is what is important. Timing is good if you get it right but nobody gets it right all or most of the time.

[kathy1516]

I’m one of the unlucky ones that had GWG bonds and lost half my investments when they filed Chapter 11. My CFP said he got taken too. Not sure I believe that, but I plan to enter a class action lawsuit to see if I can recover anything.