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-   -   "How Tariffs Work and Why They're Shaking the Market" & "Zero Stocks" (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/investment-talk-158/how-tariffs-work-why-theyre-shaking-market-zero-stocks-358003/)

Pballer 04-13-2025 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SoCalGal (Post 2423932)
When you post a claim like this, including a link to a story about this would be helpful.

reuters.com

Get ready for massive corruption as companies grovel for tariff exemptions.

jimjamuser 04-13-2025 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Normal (Post 2423707)
I believe you are right about the cause, but the problems still exists. The cheap labor goods are crack, and we are going to go through painful withdrawals just like any addict would. It has to be done though, our deficit spending and debt need to be turned around now, otherwise the future is much shorter and we all die like the overdose victim.

yes, debt needs to be turned around, but it will be made worse by the upcoming new tax percentages. The upper 1% will pay LESS and the middle and lower classes will pay MORE. It will also be easier for them to cheat now that there are fewer IRS agents. So. less money coming into the Government.

jimjamuser 04-13-2025 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MorTech (Post 2423808)
The sole purpose of the USA tariff threat is to raise the USA tariff from a nominal 3% to 10% and force every other country to lower their tariffs to 20% maximum without penalties. They also want to stop currency manipulation but that will be difficult. From the tariff revenue (10% sales tax on USA citizens when purchasing foreign stuff) and reduced fraud/waste/government spending, they will be able to have a 15% flat income tax with a large standard deduction and get rid of tax "write-offs" that encourage political corruption.

This offshoring was forced deliberately starting 40 years (before NAFTA) to make the rest of the world wealthier and more peaceful...It worked great. Now is the time to stop the forced offshoring which is what is going on now with the tariff threats.

The way I see it - offshoring was done to get rid of US unions. This was accomplished. The unions that are left are small and weak. Mission accomplished - Make America Weak, Poor, and Without Unions. Tariff threats are causing the WORLD to view the US as UNSTABLE. Tariff threats are causing counties like Japan to take their MONEY out of US bonds and look to other counties as more RELIABLE TRADING partners. ........A Flat Income tax like flat sales taxes hurt the lowest end of the financial spectrum the MOST, as will tariffs which drive up prices for the consumer.

jimjamuser 04-13-2025 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rsmurano (Post 2423821)
I listen to the vp at Merrill for my advice! Good luck with that. So I’m guessing he has you sitting pretty with no moves while your portfolio is down 20+%, and it’s still going down. But while you are losing wealth, the vp is still making his money, right?

Unless your vp told you to sell when your holdings were high, then he is no better than a kid on the street making a statement. Does your vp have the same credentials as Buffet? If he does, you would have a lot of cash on hand to make new stock purchases in the near future. I even know this, I sold everything last December and waiting to get back in.

If the vp told you to stay the course, in a couple of years you will be back to what you had at the start of 2025 unless you have to sell shares to live on during this downturn, then it will take longer to recover.

Market risk? IMO, you are at risk if you don’t know what you are doing financially and depend on a broker and assume you will make money in the long run. I have helped so many friends that were paying somebody to handle their investments that were not making them money, or very little money.

I sell high all the time, I can’t remember ever having a loss, maybe back in 2000, but until recently I never sold a share in a downturn until the end of 2021 and last December. Take the emotions out of selling, put a trailing stop loss on your stocks. I would happily pay a couple % in taxes if I’m making hundreds of thousands in gains, better than getting a $3000 write off every year on your taxes for losing money when selling.

Another risk is being too cautious in your investments that you never make money or very little after inflation. For example, I will never buy bonds, never have, you can’t make any money on them unless they are high risk. Annuities will never make you money in the long run and with their high fees, you’ve already lost money. There are hundreds of index funds that have very low risk, high returns, with decent dividends all with around .02-.05% fees. There were many stocks in 2023 and in 2024 that had multiple 100’s % gains and history will repeat itself in the coming months.

There is some GREAT advice in this post. I agree.....I NEVER buy bonds.

jimjamuser 04-13-2025 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rsmurano (Post 2423885)
Corporations are not evil! People aren’t evil if they have 401ks or pensions. If it wasn’t for corporations, we would not have the technology we have today. We all would be using pen and paper, mailing Kodak pics to relatives, and have horses and buggies.
People with pensions and especially 401ks, these people have the brains to invest and the brains to choose jobs that provide benefits, instead of someone that has to accept any job at a low wage with no benefits because they didn’t learn anything in school.

As for tariffs, it’s about time somebody did something about it. Just like countries not paying their fair share in nato. We are tired of supporting every other country but ours.

Right now, I think that the US is effectively out of NATO because right now I doubt that we would HONOR OUR commitment to fight for a NATO country that got attacked. And Europe and the UK now know that THEY have to provide their OWN security. Also, those counties and Australia and Japan will be VERY unwilling to share sensitive spy information with the US. We are becoming the THREAT to the rest of the world.

fdpaq0580 04-13-2025 12:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 2424012)
The way I see it - offshoring was done to get rid of US unions. This was accomplished. The unions that are left are small and weak. Mission accomplished - Make America Weak, Poor, and Without Unions. Tariff threats are causing the WORLD to view the US as UNSTABLE. Tariff threats are causing counties like Japan to take their MONEY out of US bonds and look to other counties as more RELIABLE TRADING partners. ........A Flat Income tax like flat sales taxes hurt the lowest end of the financial spectrum the MOST, as will tariffs which drive up prices for the consumer.

The way you "see if" is correct.
Tariffs will make America grovel again as the world trading lines are cut with both friends and enemies.
Forget "recession". Depression? Time will tell.
Have a nice day! 🙂

jimjamuser 04-13-2025 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rsb23 (Post 2423896)
The American consumer put us in American made items. Levi Jean is a prime example… in the 80s the price of Levi’s was about 40 a pair, while imports our current position by picking the cheapest price item over were about 10. Consumer picked the cheapest price..
The US can’t compete with countries that pay their workers at 2 or 3 dollars an hour…. Americans will not work for these wages. These businesses are not coming back OR if they do the American consumer will have to pay much, much higher prices that more Americans can’t afford….
This it a World economic and to think we can just change things that is plan Stupid…. It will not happen… without pain for us and our families for many, many years….

We need to accept the World economy as it is…. The U S was and still is the strongest nation why rock the boat now…

The American consumer was tricked by large American companies that moved off shore to avoid paying Americans and to avoid UNIONS that kept wages high. We made China STRONG and now a MONSTER which competes against the US militarily. And WHY ------to make a FEW, already rich American top 1% types richer that showed no loyalty or patriotism to America. .........If America had spent money to build US factories that used AI and robotics to manufacture products that would be cheaper than off shored products -----then we would NOT be in this MESS.

fdpaq0580 04-13-2025 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 2424016)
Right now, I think that the US is effectively out of NATO because right now I doubt that we would HONOR OUR commitment to fight for a NATO country that got attacked. And Europe and the UK now know that THEY have to provide their OWN security. Also, those counties and Australia and Japan will be VERY unwilling to share sensitive spy information with the US. We are becoming the THREAT to the rest of the world.

Any similarities to Germany pre-WWII? Asking for a friend.

jimjamuser 04-13-2025 01:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by phylt (Post 2423903)
++++ Just love those folks striking out at the serious work being done to rid out federal waste, fraud, abuse of OUR TAX DOLLARS. Yes - brainwashed, and paid to protest by the folks who despise our country. And the idiotic striking out at a major company and its customers.
Same with the serious work being done to FINALLY correct the USA trade policies worldwide.

This takes GUTS and strength and willingness to take short term heat. 95% of the countries are standing in line to make DEALS, all for the betterment of the USA and a good deal for both. China will be standing alone soon, odd man out. Just where we want them. I have tremendous faith that leveling the Trade playing field and hitting China economically.

As you said, the 'denial or brainwashed' folks will not/cannot see the facts. EVERYTHING being done, for the betterment of the USA and 95% world, is constantly berated.

Sorry, but I see the world completely differently.

jimjamuser 04-13-2025 01:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Aces4 (Post 2423924)
With a slight of hand, businesses figured out how to put a large portion of the debit side of their ledgers on the backs of US citizens and then convinced us we were getting a great deal with cheaper foreign products. Few noticed how the jobless affected our budgets at home with the jobs shipped overseas. As we pay out of our pockets for all the programs that support the loss of employment, subsidized housing/rent, Medicaid, food stamps, health insurance and all the social programs for the jobless not to mention the lack of dignity and loss of self esteem for those affected. We also lost the very important ability to care for ourselves in the event of world disagreements or worse. Yeah, we sure came out ahead, ahem.:loco:

Actually, I can agree with that. I would add that it is OBVIOUS that NOT 100% of all Americans are meant to be Silicon Valley millionaires or Wall St. stock brokers. 80% of Americans would be better off working in a blue collar situation with labor UNION protections. Germany works well where management and UNION workers do NOT fight each other, but work together for the benefit of their company and COUNTRY. The US problem goes back to the elimination of high school VOCATIONAL training. That was ELIMINATED to keep property taxes LOW for the rich people with large properties.........Blue collar work SHOULD BE respected.

Pugchief 04-13-2025 01:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 2424004)
yes, debt needs to be turned around, but it will be made worse by the upcoming new tax percentages. The upper 1% will pay LESS and the middle and lower classes will pay MORE.

Do you have a source with facts to back up this fantasy?

jimjamuser 04-13-2025 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2423927)
remember when in school you were a good student, and then a subject came up which you didn't quite understand as quickly as others? homework was good, but tests didn't always get the same results? You felt confident and then the results didn't happen as expected?

Starting to happen alot these days . .

In this case in poker it's called a bluff, a large bet, and the opponent doesn't get intimidated, and you start to second guess the situation. . and then realize you miscalculated, and you have to fold. .

Folding happened with Russia, the outcome didn't match the expected test results
Folding in tariffs would appear more slowly. . and with lots more spin. .

ITs called folding after a bluff. . . because a view of the world isn't a winning view of how the world works for your position. . .

Sorry, I tried hard, twice to understand where that was going. I tried, but I could not?

Aces4 04-13-2025 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 2424019)
The American consumer was tricked by large American companies that moved off shore to avoid paying Americans and to avoid UNIONS that kept wages high. We made China STRONG and now a MONSTER which competes against the US militarily. And WHY ------to make a FEW, already rich American top 1% types richer that showed no loyalty or patriotism to America. .........If America had spent money to build US factories that used AI and robotics to manufacture products that would be cheaper than off shored products -----then we would NOT be in this MESS.

Unions were the bane of America at the point businesses started leaving. It's one thing to stand up for fair wages, safe working conditions and benefits, it's another to feed the bloated union heads and insist on ridiculous wages and trying make everyone working in a plant instant millionaires.

When you're working the line and union co-workers tell you to slow down, we don't work that fast.. that is a problem since you were dragging home healthy wages and benefits. More for less became the motto.

MorTech 04-13-2025 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rsmurano (Post 2423821)
I listen to the vp at Merrill for my advice! Good luck with that. So I’m guessing he has you sitting pretty with no moves while your portfolio is down 20+%, and it’s still going down. But while you are losing wealth, the vp is still making his money, right?

Unless your vp told you to sell when your holdings were high, then he is no better than a kid on the street making a statement. Does your vp have the same credentials as Buffet? If he does, you would have a lot of cash on hand to make new stock purchases in the near future. I even know this, I sold everything last December and waiting to get back in.

If the vp told you to stay the course, in a couple of years you will be back to what you had at the start of 2025 unless you have to sell shares to live on during this downturn, then it will take longer to recover.

Market risk? IMO, you are at risk if you don’t know what you are doing financially and depend on a broker and assume you will make money in the long run. I have helped so many friends that were paying somebody to handle their investments that were not making them money, or very little money.

I sell high all the time, I can’t remember ever having a loss, maybe back in 2000, but until recently I never sold a share in a downturn until the end of 2021 and last December. Take the emotions out of selling, put a trailing stop loss on your stocks. I would happily pay a couple % in taxes if I’m making hundreds of thousands in gains, better than getting a $3000 write off every year on your taxes for losing money when selling.

Another risk is being too cautious in your investments that you never make money or very little after inflation. For example, I will never buy bonds, never have, you can’t make any money on them unless they are high risk. Annuities will never make you money in the long run and with their high fees, you’ve already lost money. There are hundreds of index funds that have very low risk, high returns, with decent dividends all with around .02-.05% fees. There were many stocks in 2023 and in 2024 that had multiple 100’s % gains and history will repeat itself in the coming months.

Word!

It is laughable that people take financial advice from these "2 and 20" maggots who claim to be professional financial experts. Brokers make you broker in this racket. Even Buffett claims they are just fraudsters and thieves.

Aces4 04-13-2025 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 2424031)
Actually, I can agree with that. I would add that it is OBVIOUS that NOT 100% of all Americans are meant to be Silicon Valley millionaires or Wall St. stock brokers. 80% of Americans would be better off working in a blue collar situation with labor UNION protections. Germany works well where management and UNION workers do NOT fight each other, but work together for the benefit of their company and COUNTRY. The US problem goes back to the elimination of high school VOCATIONAL training. That was ELIMINATED to keep property taxes LOW for the rich people with large properties.........Blue collar work SHOULD BE respected.

I think you have a tendency to use cyclop's vision for most matters. Vocational training was eliminated due to the drop in interest because college had become the "thing" and is being restored in many school districts at this point. To proclaim it was eliminated for the benefit of the rich has no merit. It is much easier for the wealthy to pay property taxes than the middle income or poor population.


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