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-   -   Is the market going to crash? (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/investment-talk-158/market-going-crash-320487/)

J1ceasar 06-11-2021 05:54 AM

Start watching financial tv networks and go to your library . Many brokerages have free talks . Enjoy life and relax . And just because you have certain percentages does not mean your stocks are the correct ones for your lifestyle and age. Ask your brokers which stocks do you have and are they dividend stocks or growth stocks. Read read and read some more. Don't be rash and don't do anything wholeheartedly until you really understand what you're being told remember it's your money

llamanca 06-11-2021 05:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by retiredguy123 (Post 1957531)
It sounds like you already have a good balance to your portfolio. I would check to see the average duration of the bonds. They should be short term or intermediate term bonds, NOT long term. Long term bonds are too risky. The average maturity of the bonds should be less than 10 years. And, if you discuss your investments with an advisor, DO NOT let them sell you an annuity. Again, DO NOT transfer your investments into an annuity.

Just curious why you say this. My Advisor suggested transferring some of my investments to an annuity. Thank your for sharing your thoughts.

Catalina36 06-11-2021 06:02 AM

First off, Good luck in this market. If you were invested in 100% in stocks then you have done well. You did not state if you are retired or working full or part time. You just stated info about a account you have with a former employer. Now you may be getting nervous with the S&P and the Dow reaching new highs. Like someone else said you cannot time the market's ups and downs.

1st, I would recommend getting out of your 403B. Transfer your account into a low cost fund manager like Vanguard, Fidelity, or Charles Schwab. I just happened to choose Charles Schwab because they are local and I can meet face to face with a financial adviser when ever I want. Charles Schwab also has a ROBO Adviser which will maintain your % of invested portfolio. When I worked I was invested 100% in stocks because every week I was depositing dollars in my 401K. Right now I am invested 52% stocks 36% bonds and 12% cash in a money market. That's how Schwab's ROBO Adviser has me invested, a very low cost computer generated method of managing your account. Some other advisers want 1.25% annually to manage your account. To me that's highway robbery. They state, they try to outperform the S&P 500.

2nd, everyone's personal situation is different. Are you collecting a pension? Are you just collecting Social security? Are you withdrawing money our of your 403B every month to live on??
So to answer your question, No, I would not pull all of your money out of the stock market and place it in a MM account. I know someone who did just that in a panic right after the pandemic hit and the market dropped 25% or more. They missed out on the come back because they did not know when to get back in. Just remember it is extremely difficult / impossible to time the market. Stocks go up and stocks go down. Try and discuss your personal situation with a good financial advisor who will guide you based on your age and financial needs. Best of Luck, invest wisely.

msilagy 06-11-2021 06:04 AM

It almost sounds like Becca might be playing a game and the info/question not real.

bonrich 06-11-2021 06:06 AM

Becca9800,
I would look for and go with a Fee Based financial advisor. What they would do is sit down with you and go through your assets and liabilities, goals, age, all your financials and look at what you would need for your income going forward and making it last through the years. Also, they would find out your risk tolerance, what you can handle comfortably as an investment portfolio. Once that is done, then comes the mix, conservative can be 70% safe funds, 30% in the market for growth, giving you a monthly income to supplement SS and a pension if you have one. They would recommend different funds to go into based on what they have about you. Once in, tune up once a year and if all is going well, stay the course. Crash?, they call it a market correction now, eases the shock value. Will it happen, experts make a lot of money predicting.

Boffin 06-11-2021 06:07 AM

Market
 
Yes, the market will go down. No one knows when.
No, you should not change your current holdings.
FYI: The average length of a bear market is 289 days, or about 9.6 months. The average length of a bull market is 973 days or about 2.7 years.

Stu from NYC 06-11-2021 06:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by retiredguy123 (Post 1957637)
Sorry. But, I would definitely stay away from insurance companies and annuities for investing money.

Totally agree, Fidelity has an office in the villages sit down with someone there and let him start your education.

Stu from NYC 06-11-2021 06:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by llamanca (Post 1957642)
Just curious why you say this. My Advisor suggested transferring some of my investments to an annuity. Thank your for sharing your thoughts.

There is an old saying about annuities. They are sold and never bought.

Ask your advisor how much in commissions he will make selling you an annuity.

terenceanne 06-11-2021 06:16 AM

There are no experts - even Warren Buffet has lost Billions over the years. All you can do is take the advise of previous comments posted and get your ducks in a row....then keep your fingers crossed.
I believe there is another housing bubble coming though.

retiredguy123 06-11-2021 06:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by llamanca (Post 1957642)
Just curious why you say this. My Advisor suggested transferring some of my investments to an annuity. Thank your for sharing your thoughts.

I suspect that your advisor recommended an annuity because it has one of the highest commission rates of any investment that he/she can sell. Typically, someone who sells an annuity will receive a commission of about 10 percent of the money you "invest". Some people don't realize that an annuity is actually a life insurance policy issued by an insurance company. So, it is a "contract" rather than an actual investment in real assets like a mutual fund, stock, or bond. Annuities have very high built-in management fees, and they usually have high surrender charges, that require you to pay a penalty if you decide to withdraw your money within 7-10 years.

I would suggest that you ask your advisor to give you a copy of the "entire" annuity contract for you to read (not just the brochure). Chances are that he/she will refuse to do it. They know that if you read the contract in advance, you will probably refuse to sign it. So, they require you to buy the annuity before giving you the contract. Not a good way to sell a product.

Girlcopper 06-11-2021 06:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957495)
I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

Getting advice from strangers? Hire a financial advisor. Case closed

Malsua 06-11-2021 06:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by llamanca (Post 1957642)
Just curious why you say this. My Advisor suggested transferring some of my investments to an annuity. Thank your for sharing your thoughts.

Because the only people that make money on Annuities are those selling them.

It sounds great. You deposit X amount and get paid Y amount over a period of time, guaranteed! That's right, you'll never have to worry about not having money! It's perfect, free money!

Or not. Annuities are almost ALWAYS bad investments. You hand over a pile to a company that invests your money, turns a huge profit and leaves you with some scraps. They are always capped on upside gain and your return almost never includes any dividends a stock or index may produce.

They would only make sense if you need to produce income for someone incapable of even the slightest bit of management. If you had a child of limited mental capacity and needed to ensure they could live after you're gone. That kind of thing. That said, there are better options in trusts and such, much beyond the scope of this original post.

To the OP: Yes, the market will crash. You have to ask yourself will you need your funds to actively live or can you weather an 18 month downturn(including your own mortality). If you can weather a crash, then "balls to the wall". In that case, get some low cost index funds or ETFs, like Vanguard VTI or an S&P 500 fund, put 90% in there, 10% in money market and enjoy the returns. That's Warren Buffet's strategy and mine too. Although I'm young enough, I have 95% of my investments in index funds and growth funds.

Conventional wisdom is you start to get more and more conservative as you age. A family member has not done that and in the last 25 years has seen his original retirement money quadruple. He literally has 4x as much money now than he did when he retired. He's 86 now, and still mostly in index funds but has toned down to about 20% in bonds, 10% in cash.

MandoMan 06-11-2021 06:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Becca9800 (Post 1957495)
I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.

Stay where you are. There are periodic “market adjustments” where people get scared and decide to do what they call “profit taking.” Plenty of people then panic and sell. But if they hold on, chances are that in a week or two or a month the market will be higher than it was. Remember that last year there was a huge crash of a third when the Dow was nearing 30,000. A lot of people sold off everything is it dropped, a lot of that when it was near the bottom. They lost 30%. Could you survive if your funds dropped 30% and stayed there? Of course you could! But it’s not likely to drop like that again in your lifetime. Still, those who sold with the market down lost their money. Those who didn’t sell had a pretty good year, despite that drop. At this moment the Dow is at 34,466. That is a really big rise since the last election, just as there was a big one after the election before that. They worried and moaned, but they didn’t sell, and it was a smart move.

I’m invested the same way you are. If I had listened to estate planners in 2015, I would have moved more and more of my money into bonds and “less risky” funds. If I had done that, I would have about half of what I have now and I wouldn’t be able to afford to live here. If I had put the money into an annuity, I would have about half the monthly income I have now just taking some of the growth out of my fund, which keeps on growing. I assume it will fall. And then it will go up again.

Be brave. Stay the course! Don’t reinvest in risky investments with big pay-outs like the Bernie Madoff thing. Don’t reinvest in things that aim to just keep your money “safe” (relatively) by keeping it where it also won’t grow much.

TNLAKEPANDA 06-11-2021 06:38 AM

I recommend Parady Financial for a review of your financial situation. They are a zero pressure company. We divided our investments between stocks and annuities. The sun 🌞 is shining on us.

LG999 06-11-2021 06:43 AM

Since you are “ignorant” as you say, it is possible that your $ is already invested properly. Or nearly so. Maybe just needs some adjusting.

Perhaps you could try to learn about the market & economics in general. Try to educate yourself. Start reading. Look up terminology you do not understand. Then you will at least be able to ask intelligent questions of your investment company or advisor or whoever handles your $.

There are many beginner books. After you have read some, you could start reading the Wall Street Journal online or delivered.


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