Is the market going to crash?

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  #1  
Old 06-10-2021, 04:52 PM
Becca9800 Becca9800 is offline
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Default Is the market going to crash?

I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.
  #2  
Old 06-10-2021, 05:02 PM
GrumpyOldMan GrumpyOldMan is offline
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You are trying to do what is called Time the Market. Don't do that. It doesn't work out well for 99.99% of investors that try to do it (just made up percentage, but it is bay far most).

You need to find a person with experience to giver you advice on conservative investment strategies - if you are concerned about losing what you have invested. And then follow that advice and leave it alone.

The market WILL crash eventually. Next week, next year, or next decade - no one can predict, but a lot of people will gladly take your money and promise they can predict it and will protect your investment, do not believe anyone that says they can promise anything.
  #3  
Old 06-10-2021, 05:11 PM
retiredguy123 retiredguy123 is online now
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You shouldn't have all your money in stocks. It should be more like 30 percent stocks, 30 percent intermediate term bonds, and 40 percent cash (money market fund). But, the way to change it is to do it over a long period, like about 2 years. So, take 70 percent of the account, divide by 24 months, and transfer that amount every month into an intermediate term bond fund (like the Vanguard total bond market index fund) and a money market fund (Vanguard MM fund). So, in 2 years, you will have a conservative, balanced portfolio. That is the way I would do it.
  #4  
Old 06-10-2021, 05:31 PM
Tom52 Tom52 is offline
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If you can't sleep well at night because you are worried about a market crash you have the wrong asset allocation. You just can't have it both ways. Just remember pigs get fat but hogs get slaughtered. Absolutely no one can accurately predict when the market will crash so you should begin adjusting your investments now if you are uncomfortable how they are allocated.
  #5  
Old 06-10-2021, 05:32 PM
Becca9800 Becca9800 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by retiredguy123 View Post
You shouldn't have all your money in stocks. It should be more like 30 percent stocks, 30 percent intermediate term bonds, and 40 percent cash (money market fund). But, the way to change it is to do it over a long period, like about 2 years. So, take 70 percent of the account, divide by 24 months, and transfer that amount every month into an intermediate term bond fund (like the Vanguard total bond market index fund) and a money market fund (Vanguard MM fund). So, in 2 years, you will have a conservative, balanced portfolio. That is the way I would do it.
See that's how ignorant I am, I don't even use the correct verbiage. I lumped it all as 'in the stock market'. I have to admit that I'm embarrassed. My aggressive retirement portfolio is 46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value. Given that new info, what say you? Am I on a stable path to preserve my savings?
  #6  
Old 06-10-2021, 05:34 PM
Becca9800 Becca9800 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrumpyOldMan View Post
You are trying to do what is called Time the Market. Don't do that. It doesn't work out well for 99.99% of investors that try to do it (just made up percentage, but it is bay far most).

You need to find a person with experience to giver you advice on conservative investment strategies - if you are concerned about losing what you have invested. And then follow that advice and leave it alone.

The market WILL crash eventually. Next week, next year, or next decade - no one can predict, but a lot of people will gladly take your money and promise they can predict it and will protect your investment, do not believe anyone that says they can promise anything.
I sought out 2 "experts", one said pull, the other said hold.
  #7  
Old 06-10-2021, 05:38 PM
Becca9800 Becca9800 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom52 View Post
If you can't sleep well at night because you are worried about a market crash you have the wrong asset allocation. You just can't have it both ways. Just remember pigs get fat but hogs get slaughtered. Absolutely no one can accurately predict when the market will crash so you should begin adjusting your investments now if you are uncomfortable how they are allocated.
I love ya, Tom but asset allocation and asset adjustment ain't my strong suits. That's why I sought expert advice, which was conflicting. I'm as dumb as they come when it comes to finance. I mean, I have a credit score in the 800s bc I have debt and pay my bills on time but beyond that.....
  #8  
Old 06-10-2021, 05:45 PM
Stu from NYC Stu from NYC is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Becca9800 View Post
I love ya, Tom but asset allocation and asset adjustment ain't my strong suits. That's why I sought expert advice, which was conflicting. I'm as dumb as they come when it comes to finance. I mean, I have a credit score in the 800s bc I have debt and pay my bills on time but beyond that.....
Without knowing your net worth and your age hard to give advise.

Also no idea if you have a pension.

BTW your net worth is none of our business.

What you should do is stop being ignorant. Read some books and/or take a class in personal finance. A financial advisor would be a good thing for you but you need to have some knowledge of finances.

IMHO thinking that with interest rates being this low you are too conservative but that is me. Remember you need your assets to enjoy retirement.
  #9  
Old 06-10-2021, 05:54 PM
Becca9800 Becca9800 is offline
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Originally Posted by Stu from NYC View Post
Without knowing your net worth and your age hard to give advise.

Also no idea if you have a pension.

BTW your net worth is none of our business.

What you should do is stop being ignorant. Read some books and/or take a class in personal finance. A financial advisor would be a good thing for you but you need to have some knowledge of finances.

IMHO thinking that with interest rates being this low you are too conservative but that is me. Remember you need your assets to enjoy retirement.
Can you recommend a book, please?
  #10  
Old 06-10-2021, 05:58 PM
Tom52 Tom52 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Becca9800 View Post
See that's how ignorant I am, I don't even use the correct verbiage. I lumped it all as 'in the stock market'. I have to admit that I'm embarrassed. My aggressive retirement portfolio is 46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value. Given that new info, what say you? Am I on a stable path to preserve my savings?
I believe by any definition you already have a conservative asset allocation. Long term you need enough in equities to stay ahead of inflation. Everyone's risk tolerance is different. My suggestion would be to ignore the financial talking heads.
  #11  
Old 06-10-2021, 06:03 PM
Becca9800 Becca9800 is offline
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Originally Posted by Tom52 View Post
I believe by any definition you already have a conservative asset allocation. Long term you need enough in equities to stay ahead of inflation. Everyone's risk tolerance is different. My suggestion would be to ignore the financial talking heads.
Really??? Thank you so much! I very much appreciate your opinion.
  #12  
Old 06-10-2021, 06:06 PM
tuccillo tuccillo is offline
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A basic book about asset allocation is:

"All About Asset Allocation" by Richard Ferri.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Becca9800 View Post
I'm absolutely ignorant when it comes to the stock market yet that's where all the money I have is nesting. It's in a 403b, encouraged and supported by my former employer. I'm w Lincoln Financial, with an Aggressive Retirement portfolio. I've not a clue. Please be kind now, I know I've been not too bright but I'm here now asking for your advice. So please be nice. I watch my value go up, and go down, YTD I'm up. It's all I have and it ain't much, I cannot afford to lose it in a crash. But I don't want to miss any gains either (greed, I know. It's a matter of knowing I'll need gain to be comfortable 10 years from now). I keep reading the market will crash soon and it frightens me. I need a financial guru to guide me. I've been to two advisors and received conflicting advice. Do I pull out or do I stay and run the gambit? What's an 'ol girl to do? Thanks so much in advance.
  #13  
Old 06-10-2021, 06:20 PM
retiredguy123 retiredguy123 is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Becca9800 View Post
See that's how ignorant I am, I don't even use the correct verbiage. I lumped it all as 'in the stock market'. I have to admit that I'm embarrassed. My aggressive retirement portfolio is 46.77% bonds, 27.47% stocks and 25.76% cash/stable value. Given that new info, what say you? Am I on a stable path to preserve my savings?
It sounds like you already have a good balance to your portfolio. I would check to see the average duration of the bonds. They should be short term or intermediate term bonds, NOT long term. Long term bonds are too risky. The average maturity of the bonds should be less than 10 years. And, if you discuss your investments with an advisor, DO NOT let them sell you an annuity. Again, DO NOT transfer your investments into an annuity.
  #14  
Old 06-10-2021, 06:38 PM
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dewilson58 dewilson58 is offline
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Interesting advice without know an age.


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  #15  
Old 06-10-2021, 06:47 PM
GrumpyOldMan GrumpyOldMan is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Becca9800 View Post
I sought out 2 "experts", one said pull, the other said hold.
Did you vet the "experts". And that is not a surprise, ask 5 more and you will get 5 more types of advice.

And the absolute worst place to get advice on almost anything is online in a forum.
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