Talk of The Villages Florida

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-   -   Morgan Stanley predicts housing prices may fall by 5% by end of 2024 (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/investment-talk-158/morgan-stanley-predicts-housing-prices-may-fall-5-end-2024-a-344878/)

TeresaE 10-22-2023 08:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rainger99 (Post 2267071)
If you think Morgan Stanley is correct, and you are thinking about buying a house next year, do you still buy or hold off?

Morgan Stanley predicts house prices could fall 5% by the end of 2024 if mortgage rates stay at record highs | Daily Mail Online

Location, location, location. This is a national prediction. Real estate is local. With 10,000 boomers retiring daily, we’re not too worried.

Normal 10-22-2023 09:05 AM

Do your homework
 
23 new build houses were “discounted”over a 2 week period, numerous homes have been added to inventory as it still climbs, pre owned homes are getting hammered on resale and The Villages has gone a step further to adjust new area lot sales by closing some off for spec builds. Look for rental prices to decrease as new units of pre owned homes feel the pressure from no sale and portfolios are readjusted.

Remember costs are also increasing with homeowner’s insurance and bonds have risen to 50k on new builds. There is A LOT of writing on the wall warning new buyers. Be cautious.

Stu from NYC 10-22-2023 09:28 AM

If I was looking to buy 5% reduction in price would be secondary to increasing costs of mortgage, bond, and insurance

nick demis 10-22-2023 09:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rainger99 (Post 2267071)
If you think Morgan Stanley is correct, and you are thinking about buying a house next year, do you still buy or hold off?

Morgan Stanley predicts house prices could fall 5% by the end of 2024 if mortgage rates stay at record highs | Daily Mail Online

When has the Villages ever had a downturn in prices?

manaboutown 10-22-2023 10:55 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nick demis (Post 2267433)
When has the Villages ever had a downturn in prices?

All-Transactions House Price Index for the Villages, FL (MSA) (ATNHPIUS45540Q) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

Caymus 10-22-2023 11:17 AM

At least for most of the country:icon_wink:

Just a moment...

Normal 10-22-2023 11:58 AM

Last Month
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by nick demis (Post 2267433)
When has the Villages ever had a downturn in prices?

Last month. Down 3.7% according to Redfin.
The Villages Housing Market: House Prices & Trends | Redfin

No opinions, just facts from sales data.

Retiredsteve 10-22-2023 03:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DrMack (Post 2267301)
Rates are crazy high. 8.25% on a 30. I don’t get that from my other investments.

So would you lend me $400,000 for 30 years at 4%?

dewilson58 10-22-2023 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nick demis (Post 2267433)
when has the villages ever had a downturn in prices?

2008

Stu from NYC 10-22-2023 03:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Retiredsteve (Post 2267484)
So would you lend me $400,000 for 30 years at 4%?

Thought about it for about a second the answer is no. Sorry

asianthree 10-23-2023 05:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dewilson58 (Post 2267488)
2008

So true in 2007 you were on a list knee deep to buy any house, when we were here. Starting with 2008 to April 2010, had discounted homes on the website.

Green banners showing discount with original price. If you closed one day late that discount went away. ( yes that is a true fact, we were in that close one day late factor)

There were 23 houses discounted at the time we bought, 4/10/2010. All designers, and still building 80 plus houses across the street.

Without GoldWing drone flying we had no idea there were hundreds of homes being built south. One could see some smoke, (probably dirt) but you couldn’t get to that area. So we bought in 2010 a new house for $40,000 (no discount included) less than the exact house in 2007.

Bought house #2 in 2012, looked at all new neighborhoods bought in Fernandina. (Area of dirt seen in 2010) some discounts in villages closing out.

Third house looked at Pine Hills, and beyond, but didn’t want Lake county, so found a pre- owned, in Sumter.

Our VLS knew we wanted to build in Richmond, Flashback to 2007, 30 plus names for every Build lot available (with meeting at street of disappointment).
Then Spec house were released in Richmond, same issue 20 plus names per house. All the while multiple home in Deluna were available.

Today reminds me of the after effects of buying frenzy in 2007. But then interest rates of 4.5%ish.

Still not seeing the Slashing of prices, just some minor discounts, but developer, needs to move on to New Eastport, Moltry Creek (one lot on site) and beyond, so reducing prices to close them out, is the norm.

Just not seeing as big of difference than in 2008. So nothing new for those who have been watching this development for 20 years or more.

No I don’t work for the Developer, because we got shut out of 15 lots in Richmond.

charlieo1126@gmail.com 10-23-2023 06:57 AM

We put my mother and fathers home for sale in Boston , 2 of my cousins , were living in it the last 11 years ,but they are moving to independent living . The home was built in 1894 , its 3 floors , no yard , parking for one car only, the rest on the street , it sold for over a million dollars in 11 days , no inspection . Homes that come up for sale go fast , the problem is that people have to go somewhere else at a higher price so that’s holding the market back

Stu from NYC 10-23-2023 07:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by charlieo1126@gmail.com (Post 2267560)
We put my mother and fathers home for sale in Boston , 2 of my cousins , were living in it the last 11 years ,but they are moving to independent living . The home was built in 1894 , its 3 floors , no yard , parking for one car only, the rest on the street , it sold for over a million dollars in 11 days , no inspection . Homes that come up for sale go fast , the problem is that people have to go somewhere else at a higher price so that’s holding the market back

How does anyone pay a million dollars for an older home without an inspection? Scratching my head about this.

charlieo1126@gmail.com 10-23-2023 08:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC (Post 2267570)
How does anyone pay a million dollars for an older home without an inspection? Scratching my head about this.

hi Stu I was as shocked as you when realtor told me that ,I guess if you were desperate you would give one but buyers don’t seem to care they only want to buy ,worry later , FYI a tip for those who don’t know . I had all new kitchen appliances delivered today , there is a plastic hose in back for water for fridge , the delivery people won’t disconnect and you have to call a plumber to come and change to metal , I paid for the removal of appliances and for the hookup for the microwave and dishwasher but this is separate , so I would advise looking at back of fridge ,if it’s plastic lowes won’t connect .

manaboutown 10-23-2023 09:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by charlieo1126@gmail.com (Post 2267560)
We put my mother and fathers home for sale in Boston , 2 of my cousins , were living in it the last 11 years ,but they are moving to independent living . The home was built in 1894 , its 3 floors , no yard , parking for one car only, the rest on the street , it sold for over a million dollars in 11 days , no inspection . Homes that come up for sale go fast , the problem is that people have to go somewhere else at a higher price so that’s holding the market back

High cost homes in primo areas go fast. I do not know the Boston market but have seen that happen in other areas at times.


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