Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2422863)

Recession impact

Odds of recession = 50 : 50 right now, not zero, and i would estimate much higher than that, but lets start with even.

Recession means negative earnings growth . .
Recession means lower earnings multiplier.

Take the lower earnings numbers and put a lower earnings growth multiple and you can easily get an SnP500 index number which starts with a 4, and at the extreme, which would be 100% all in time to buy, an index number which starts with a 3.

The kick when down would be if the foreign buyers don't buy the US treasuries as they have in the past with the current low interest rates we have right now. . The treasury may have to increase interest rates to sell the bonds to foreigners. .

That is the risk right now for the US economy. . . growth can't be financed cheaply any more. MMT might just be an academic theory which doesn't scale in the real world.

Which means that the bond market, with interest rates which have been in a down trend for 40 years, can't continue to have interest rates in a down trend any longer, after it reached near zero during the pandemic.

So a balanced portfolio with stocks and bonds may not have an increasing value. . that is the current risk. . . doesn't mean it will happen, just means that the odds/probability of it happening are higher. .

good luck to us. .

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 2423333)

Investors are running away FROM US treasuries because the rest of the world VIEWS the US as becoming UNSTABLE.

Originally Posted by mikempp (Post 2423485)

New jobs report is spectacular, trillions of investments coming back to America, better trade laws, quit watching the lamestream news, the odds of a recession are zero.

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 2423671)

Japan sold all of its US Treasury Bonds. That is a fact.

Originally Posted by Whatnext (Post 2423699)

Some.

Originally Posted by tophcfa (Post 2423717)

This whole tariff thing is proving to be the fuse that is lighting the bomb, which is our country’s real problem that nobody seems to want to address. That problem is our country’s unsustainable level of ever growing debt (over $36 trillion and rapidly growing). Without foreign countries willingness to fund our country’s out of control debt levels, we are basically screwed. Anything we do that causes foreigners to loose confidence in the financial stability of the good old US of A spells disaster. Not to mention the fact that the interest payments alone on the debt are crippling to the nation’s budget. Stay tuned and buckle up, this has the potential to get very ugly.

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 2423721)

There is an old financial theory that says when a country's debt EXCEEDS the money spent on it's military, then that country risks having big problems. And right now the US debt EXCEEDS the military spend by a small amount.

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 2423710)

That's true. My mistake. But, the fact that Japan is selling ANY US Treasury Bonds shows that they are worrying about US unpredictability. For the same reason OTHER counties are also selling US Bonds.