RedFin 8/K filing this week, highlights for those interested in housing sales

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Old 04-30-2020, 12:54 PM
CoachKandSportsguy CoachKandSportsguy is offline
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Default RedFin 8/K filing this week, highlights for those interested in housing sales

Just the Facts: Four Key Housing Market Takeaways For This Week




Home-buying demand is making a speedy recovery, down only 15% from pre-pandemic levels



Buyers are nervous, but continue to pay up. Prices are up 1% compared to last year and affordable homes are selling like hotcakes



New listings are up from their low-point on April 13, but can’t keep up with home-buying demand. There are fewer than 700,000 homes for sale in Redfin markets; a five-year low



Mortgages rates are low, but credit is still tight. Lenders are demanding big down payments, especially for high-end homes, forcing some buyers to put their purchases on hold

Home-buying demand continues to climb

Home-buying demand took another step towards recovery, gaining strength for the third week in a row. After plummeting as much as 34% in March, home-buying demand is now down only 15% from pre-coronavirus levels on a seasonally-adjusted basis for the seven days ended on Sunday, April 26.

Will the housing recovery survive re-starting the economy?

While the recovery in home-buying demand is starting to look more and more v-shaped, the question buyers and sellers are asking our agents is what will happen as states begin to lift stay-at-home orders? Will a burst of new inventory from sellers who have been trying to outlast the pandemic lead to lower prices? Or will sellers stay on the sidelines while buyers, hopped up on ultra-low interest rates, bid up the limited number of homes on the market?

So far, the reality is a modest increase in new listings and pending sales. In the seven days ended April 24, almost 53,000 new homes hit the market compared to just over 48,000 for the seven days ended April 13; the date new listings hit their lowest level over the past two months. More new listings have been accompanied by more sales, with pending sales up from fewer than 31,000 in the seven days ended April 13 to more than 32,500 for the seven days ended April 24.

Despite the increase in new listings over the past two weeks, there were fewer than 700,000 homes for sale in Redfin markets across the U.S., which is the lowest inventory level we’ve seen anytime in the past five years.

Some of the new inventory hitting the market may be coming from buy-and-hold investors. Since the beginning of the pandemic, we’ve heard stories of Airbnb landlords with sudden unexpected vacancy putting their homes up for sale. This week, we started to hear of more long-term rentals hitting the market. Marshall Carey, a Redfin agent in Washington D.C., said several clients decided to list because the college students who normally lease their units have headed home early. Across the country in Tacoma, Washington, Redfin agent Amber Allin has clients who are selling several long-term rental properties to free up cash for investments outside of real estate.

Overall prices are up just a touch, affordable homes are still selling like hotcakes

Even though some investors may be headed for the exits, prices have held steady. For the seven days ended April 24, the median listing price was $308,000, up 1% compared to the same period the prior year. Octavia Valencia, a Redfin agent in Atlanta says, “Buyers and sellers are in a deadlock. Buyers are asking ‘is now the right time,’ and making more conservative offers, but sellers are not willing to come down on price.” Graham Rogers, a Redfin agent in South Carolina added, “In the end, buyers are paying up to hit the seller’s bottom-line number.”

Redfin - SEC Filing
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Old 04-30-2020, 01:08 PM
retiredguy123 retiredguy123 is online now
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Interesting, but mark me down as very skeptical. "Affordable homes are selling like hotcakes?" Maybe, but nobody is selling hotcakes.
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Old 04-30-2020, 02:38 PM
davem4616 davem4616 is offline
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there's a designer home down the street from us that just went on the market...the investor that bought it new in 2017 is looking to get out. Plenty of traffic looking at it
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Old 04-30-2020, 05:25 PM
justjim justjim is offline
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The only reason a house won’t sell right now is price. Price it right if you want it to sell.
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Old 05-14-2020, 04:45 PM
CoachKandSportsguy CoachKandSportsguy is offline
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Update for the skeptics: suburban houses entering a bidding war as urbanites want to have a yard versus a park:

Quote:
Now bidding wars are coming back with a vengeance. Seattle @Redfin agent David Hokenson reports, “My client was in a 24-offer bidding war for a 1960s home that grandma had never updated. It was listed for $360k, we bid $400k, and didn’t even come close.”
So for the skeptics, TV is not the same as the general country. Urban dwellers may be changing their minds about what the best place is to live, especially with more working from home, which favors suburbia with more individual space than the cities.

TV will most likely lag, but with enough early forced job seekers in their early 60s, there may be a small wave who gives up on re-entering the job market just to get a larger social security payment. I know several peers, who have given up and moved into retirement phase, just not in FL, prior to the pandemic. I will be joining their ranks in July, but we still have a year or two from moving down, although I keep the hope alive with coachk

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Old 05-14-2020, 05:06 PM
retiredguy123 retiredguy123 is online now
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Why would anyone trust market information compiled by a real estate organization whose sole purpose is to promote and sell real estate?
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Old 05-14-2020, 06:23 PM
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I just checked the "Zestimates" on a few homes I know the price history on in three separate markets. I was amazed at how high they are!
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Old 05-14-2020, 08:45 PM
Stu from NYC Stu from NYC is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by retiredguy123 View Post
Why would anyone trust market information compiled by a real estate organization whose sole purpose is to promote and sell real estate?
Wondering about that myself. In our neighborhood a number of houses still sitting on the market but do not know the asking price.
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Old 05-14-2020, 08:59 PM
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Have looked at 3 houses with no improvements, that are $150,000. More than original purchase price. Nice profit, but capital gains will take a toll.
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Old 05-14-2020, 10:16 PM
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Redfin derives it's market analysis from unbiased national MLS data. It is a reliable source.
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Old 05-15-2020, 06:00 PM
CoachKandSportsguy CoachKandSportsguy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by retiredguy123 View Post
Why would anyone trust market information compiled by a real estate organization whose sole purpose is to promote and sell real estate?
First, as a public company, the real estate organization does have a responsibility to shareholders to represent the company fairly. There are also class action lawsuits against companies for misleading the public, so I tend to "trust" public company statements a bit more than say an individual sales rep.

I did go into a Myrtle Beach golfing condo area, The Legends, after a co-worker bought a condo in 2010 after the sale agent told him the worst was past. This was in 2015. The sales agent used the exact same speech on me. The co worker sold the condo for about $100K, 50% loss on his investment.

Sales reps, never listen to them. Public company statements subject to independent scrutiny with lawsuit potential. . . yes, I listen to them, but also realize that they are at a national or regional level, which may make it moot for my transaction. But there are so many variables to a sale, some of which can't be quantified, that most people's buying and selling experience doesn't pass the statistical significance test, including all the individual stories on TOTV, including those of buying at $20K bid after a list price of $60K.

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Old 05-15-2020, 06:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by retiredguy123 View Post
Why would anyone trust market information compiled by a real estate organization whose sole purpose is to promote and sell real estate?
exactly
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Old 05-15-2020, 06:13 PM
davem4616 davem4616 is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justjim View Post
The only reason a house won’t sell right now is price. Price it right if you want it to sell.
exactly...priced 4 houses correctly and sold all of them in a day....

never looked back or questioned 'how much may we have left on the table'
but we never needed to hit a 'grand slam' to go into the home that we were going in to
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