[CoachKandSportsguy]

There are two types of inflationary forces, supply constrained and demand increase. There are two types of inflationary measures, products and labor services. Currently the US is experiencing both forces in the product measure, and much less in the labor or services. in the last 40 years, there has been a large reduction and low persistence in the product measure, mostly due to manufacturing quality and efficiency increases. the labor measure has been subdued but steady growth until the 2008 GFC due to the deflationary effects of technology, which is really devastating and the principle source of wealth inequality, where knowledge and capital owners' wealth is increasing much faster than the labor class wealth.

So, first, trader? short as much as you can of TLT, over the next three months only. Why? Because there will be a HUGE transitory increase in the inflation measure to almost double, from here due to the pandemic basis denominator. For the three months last year Apr -> Jun, the CPI fell, now the cpi is rising at about a 2% annual rate, and the year over year calculation will show inflation at nearly 4%, but it is transitory as that dip goes away over time. So sell bonds, buy TLT puts for a hedge and buy back between May and Jun when inflation peaks out. Now, J Powell knows this is coming and calls it transitory, correct, and won't do anything special, and the markets will go crazy negative, especially in bonds.

So house prices are up due to
* materials increase for new construction
* increase demand for suburban/rural from rural due to pandemic AND remote working combination
* reduction in retirement age for knowledge workers with substantial IRA/401K wealth
* record to near record low interest rates for mortgages
* corporate relocations for lower state taxes and services, requiring employee relocations
* from studies, over 65 fear of the virus entering their house won't sell house to downsize or relocate

FInally, below is a forecast graph of how financial inflation is modeled and calculated for the next three months or so with a constant 2% annualized increase month over month. . .

finance guy