I think the pre-crisis DJIA high was in October of 2007.

The big fall was in 2008.

This bull market is usually measured from March 2009.

As the market led up to the fiasco of 2008, I remember thinking that the housing boom was a house of cards. It got downright stupid.

(And then everybody in high places seemed so surprised. I have never understood how some old high school teacher in the Midwest could see it coming but they did not.)

I am not claiming to be some kind of savant or to have any qualifications whatsoever. But for what it is worth, I think our long bull market, post-corporate tax cuts, has been basically a bull$#*% market.

I have a long held comfort zone with making my own market decisions. But I strongly believe that unrestrained greed is not good for the economy.

Back to the thoughts on stock buybacks: I still don't like 'em.

And I sure don't see this current market offering me any buying opportunities. (euphemistically speaking)

Anybody else keeping an eye on the old bull? Thoughts?

Stock buybacks fueled by adding to the national debt sure do feel good if your investments are growing and money is rolling in. One must keep in mind that when the music stops you might not have a chair to sit in.

Paper1,

Musical chairs. What a perfect analogy.

I always talk about building and tending a moat, but I like your comparison better, even though we are saying the same thing.

:bigbow:

Too many to cover in one post, but here's a few...of my own observations/opinions.

1. I'm an 'Oracle of Omaha' disciple and believe in holding for the long haul...even though it can be tough on the ticker in the short run. After seeing an almost 2-1/2 times increase in the DJIA between the low of early 2009 and 2016...I'm glad I hung on.

2. I too am against stock buy-backs, even when they personally benefit me...as I think they are bad for our country in the long run. Particularly, since the current system rewards upper management for a short period of their company's stock price and almost compels them to do whatever is good in the short run...as then they can make their killing now if they're later replaced. The old "instant gratification/I got mine, forget you" attitude...if you will.

If laws required their remuneration/pay package to be based on say a three year average, we might see actions being taken that strengthen the economy/company...for a longer period of time.

3. Since just a little over 1/2 of Americans even own stocks, the idea that those who benefit the most from tax cuts, or loose corporate regulations, allowing companies to increase their profits for the short term will eventually allow some bread crumbs to 'trickle down'...I find ludicrous.

https://www.politifact.com/california/statements/2018/sep/18/ro-khanna/what-percentage-americans-own-stocks/

4. Recent tax cuts; Too political to address, but so far...I'm certainly not seeing what the proponents were touting. :ohdear:


Even with the recent market(s) volatility, I'll still sit tight and just keep telling myself that..."I don't lose anything, if I don't sell."


Sadly, not everyone has that luxury. :(

Yep. :thumbup:

Re: Presentations
 

Here, or perhaps, I have more time to be aware of it, you can go to a presentation such as the one you attended from Schwab almost every week. Often you get a,"free meal." Like perhaps, real estate partnerships that were the rage for vacation resorts a few years ago. Remind yourself, you get nothin for nothin. If, anyone says you must act now, don't walk but RUN away. Today it is so easy. Take the time to read and explore competing ideas to what the SALESMAN-speaker is saying. Do not be intimidated if you do not understand what the speaker is saying. At any of these presentations, there a many people that done't understand what is being said. Step back and see first of all what is being said may not be TRUE. The speaker may not even understand what he is saying. Surely others attending
may not even know that they do not know what is being said and even worse some think they know but do not know that they do not know.

SIMPLE MATH THAT FEW SEE-COMPOUNDING WORKS UP AND DOWN. Example if you have 10,000 invested and the first year you make 10%. The next year you loose 10%-you have LESS than 10,000 not even-a net loss 10,000+10%=11000 11,000-10%=9900-HUH? On top of that we forget brokerage fees and you likely paid tax on that $1,000 if it was in a fund.

Never allow yourself to forget that you are a PRAWN-bait for the SHARKS.

Wow so many thoughts
 

#1 Re: Buffet
That thought Buffet like. I don't know about you but I recall reading Buffet said he lost 45 million in ????? 2006. Hum-I don't know your situation but I doubt anyone in their right mind would
believe I have 45 million to hold, lend, spend. Buffet and holding long term. The man is if I recall 86. Long term-HUH?
#2 Re: stock buybacks
The truth is understanding stock buybacks is far too complex for most-INCLUDING ME. Usually the company bought shares are not destroyed they show as a company asset. A bit of, my term, slight of hand. Those shares can and are used for dividend payments, management incentives,when stock is used to purchase another company etc. A stock buyback is widely published. Spending those shares is not.
#3 Re: only half of Americans own stocks
Not nearly that simple. First of all assuming that some people THINK they own no stocks. If, they have a pension, there pension is surely invested in stocks. If, they give money to support a school a charity it is in stocks. If, they paid for insurance, it is in stocks. There have been proposals that people be allowed to invest their own social security money into the stock market. HUH? Same as our not so long ago housing collapse, people would expect the government-their fellow citizens to pay for their mistakes. To tax those who did well, took appropriate risk (whatever that is) and give to those who perhaps decided to take more or less risk than they should have.
#4 Re: politics
Unfortunately it effects everything and everybody. A simple view. I view government as a NECESSARY EVIL. My thoughts apply throughout world history. Everyone wants. Everyone comes up with what they truly believe are valid points why someone else NOT THEM, should pay. Too often I hear people say the government should pay for that. This is government of the people, for the people and by the people. In plainspeak let the government pay for it is my neighbors NOT ME, should pay for it.
#5 Don't loose anything if I don't sell
That is MIND CONTROL. Reminder all the information we have comes form people with a vested interest. Simple math that our mind does not seem to fathom. If you start with 10,000 and your statement shows you are up the first year by 10%. The next year you are down 10% YOU ARE NOT EVEN
10,000+10%=11,000. 11,000-10%=9900-HUH WHERE DID $100 VANISH TO? On top of that assuming it is in a taxable account you not only have less but you paid tax on the non-gain.

Since Buffet has already arranged to give away the majority of his vast fortune, your point is invalid...and a bit disingenuous.

Buffett's Charitable Contributions While $45M is definitely a lot of money to most of us, you totally fail to take into account what % of his total assets/net worth...this actually represents. Analogous to those who confuse, or can't understand, the difference between weather...and climate.

Not to mention, you also fail to recognize that the 'long haul' means just that...including 'short-term' losses/reductions.

Methinks the BIG picture of Buffett's EXTREMELY successful lifetime investing strategy...more than speaks for itself.




While there are numerous reason for stock repurchase, those reasons are far from being too complex for the average person of even a modicum of investing knowledge...to understand.

Here's a link that might help you understand it a little better.

Stock Repurchase (click here)


While I now realize the link I first gave didn't work unless you took the effort to put all of it into the search bar...this one should work.

Click Here

If you take the time to read the link, it fully recognizes and includes the various methods...that American's may 'indirectly' own stocks.



To protect the thread, I will pass on this one.

Please be assured though...I DO have a few political thoughts. :D




"MIND CONTROL?" :1rotfl:

Sorry, but my original statement applies. Particularly since I don't hold any accounts that are taxable...until I sell.

I don't "LOSE" anything...unless I sell.


:ho:

Alan Greenspan chimed in this morning.

Corporate America is an investor with idle cash:

Buy Low, Sell High.

I doubt they will Buy High.

It appears they did...........neither of us will know for the next couple of years. I'm betting prices will increase in the next couple of years.

My money's on your assessment, DEW.