Yes! Stock markets have only been around since the 1600s but soon someone will discover it's a ponzi scheme. Our poor grandchildren.

I retired in 1999. The fantasy on the job was take your lump sum retirement package and you’ll make more money in retirement than working. I did that and than along came...tech bubble. rising interest rates...falling interest rates..Great Recession...Pandemic. Usually if I made no withdrawals and waited a few years the IRA value was restored. Same with the Pandemic losses. If you live long enough your IRA value will be restored in time for your heirs to enjoy the money.
What I’ve learned after four Advisors. Some honest, some not. Some on Barrons top 100. On market downturns they will do nothing. “Stay fully invested”. IMO. Roth vs conventional IRA. No mandatory withdrawals after age 701/2 on Roth. Back in 1999 I got free financial advice from a local “expert” in the city newspaper. Asking would 6% bonds be a good investment? He said no. 6% bonds would have given me more than enough cash flow with money aside to invest in equities. Ah, the good old days.

Ponzi scheme
 

R If you are old enough you may remember that the only person who had “investments” was your old uncle Ed who had shares in Northern Pacific and AT&T and used that for the dividends. A real investor was Mr.Davis down the street who owned a “double” rental property.
The feeding frenzy started in about the late 90s when major companies by regulation (I think) could give you your pension money in a lump sum.
This resulted in an invitation to you and your wife for free dinner and seminar at an upscale steakhouse. At the seminar they showed how they would take your $100,000 pension lump and in ten years grow that to $1,000,000.
Results did not exceed expectations.

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I always kept quite a bit of cash (by my standards anyway) in Synchrony, an online bank. For ease of movement if needed - to keep very liquid. It was paying 2% a year ago, then 1% mid year, now .75%.

So about 4 months ago I decided to take a few Grand out and invest in the Market thru eTrade. Decided that auto stocks would be a good bet, esp since many are investing in elec/batt vehicles. And auto sales should take off once the COVID slows. So that investment was wise +++. Then researched some sole-elec vehicle stocks (not Tesla) - bought 3, and BAM! One is up 150% the others 50% (should have invested more, you know...).

Then a month ago bought 2 EFTs - one for Infrustructure stocks, other for elec vehicle mfrs. And they are slow growers for now - but should be a great long-term investment. So my play-money - rather than a measly .75% is now at 20%+, and should continue to grow nicely - no matter the politics.
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Source of your misinformation, please?
https://www.cnbc.miscom/2020/10/02/j...mber-2020.html
Jobs report October 2020: Unemployment rate slides, growth stronger than expected

If these guys are such genius's they would be retired on a tropical island,' We have gone to several of these dinner when at good restaurants and on occasion do get some good info which is used for my own investments.

Much better to develop a balanced portfolio of well run mutual funds with a good track record

I asked the original poster back in june what was his / her point about their declarative statement of the stock market being off the rails. The S+P 500 closed at 3230.78 on 12/31/2019. The month of March brought in the COVID panic, and on March 23, the S+P closed at 2237.40. On 6/5/2020, the day of the original post, the S+P 500 closed at 3193.93, retracing most, but not all of its "COVID" losses. The original post mentioned nothing of the nearly 50% decline. So did that qualify as the market being off the rails ? Yesterday, the market closed at 3585.15, making a YTD gain of nearly 11%. Very good, but off the rails ? More to the point.. did you keep with your investment strategy through the year, or buy high and panic sell low ? Did you buy the dip ? If you thought the market was off the rails on 6/5, then you must think it is bat $H*t crazy today. So then why not sell into the rally, and build yourself another year of retirement cash ? That will protect you from the next major dip. Last point, please do not canonize Alan Greenspan, who is best known for his irrational exuberance comment. A closer look to his tenure will lead you to the conclusion that his ignorance as Fed chairman was one of the major causes of the Financial / mortgage crises of the early 2000's. In today's terms, he would be duly categorized as a RINO, or worse.. a topic beyond this post's scope

The house next to our friends in Duval has 3 young women from NYC
that came here to WFH.

Why are markets so high today? Yes, as previously mentioned, it's in part due to the very low cost of borrowing (and buying back stocks), that small business failing means big business profits.

But, the markets were high before COVID. I think it's largely because there's no where else to go. With bond rates very low (and a risk if interest rates rise of losing money on bond holdings), and with fixed interest rates so low (that you're actually losing money after inflation and taxes) -- where else do you go? Gold, property, art? Those are tangible assets that can do well to offset inflation but not vehicles for the masses to save for retirement. So everyone goes for stocks and mutual funds. That drives up the price and the market and P/E ratios keep going up due to optimism that it's never going to end and perception that there's nowhere else to go.

What's wrong with that? What happens when interest rates rise? Yes, the government wants to keep rates low to fund the debt, but at some point the theory of unlimited demand for treasury bonds will be tested and rates may rise anyway. Then things will get very interesting. Bond returns will start rising and fixed rates as well. As people gradually start to move away from stocks to bonds/fixed returns the market may start falling. And it may fall (or remain flat) for a LONG time - perhaps the amount of time we saw the rise - decades.

But nobody knows when. I know many who got out of the market 3 years ago to miss out on great returns since. Trying to time the market is a scary thing. Divesting of asset types is likely a good idea. There are more strategies than just stocks/bonds/fixed.

wfh?

work from home

Where is the original poster? He can provide an update to his current thoughts.

The point? It’s Ponzi scheme where only insiders make ANd control the paper money. Where 27 trillion plus on debt and going higher. It’s all paper money on monopoly scheme.

wfh = work from home

You really believe your first sentence>??

It is obvious that the election brought great confidence back to the country.

No. What has brought great confidence back to the country was a news story you might have missed. Pfizer/BioNTech reported very good results from the Phase 3 trial of their coronavirus vaccine.

The economy disintegrated because of Covid-19. It is much easier to make huge gains when we're at the bottom of a recession. The better the economy gets, the more difficult it is to improve.

if you play golf, it's pretty easy to take some lesson and learn to break 100. It's a bit more difficult to learn to break ninety and it becomes even more difficult to shoot in 70s. Being able to shoot under par is almost impossible for most people that don't have a lot of natural talent and are not willing or able to spend hours and hours practicing the right way.

The stock market, the job market, the overall economy and the gross domestic product are the same. The better they get the more difficult it is to improve. We can expect the most growth when we are recovering from a bad patch. Unemployment hitting a new low of 13.3% would have been laughable a year ago when it was 3.5%.

With the jobless rates recalculated using different criteria I do not think it has meaning anymore. The news needs to report more for people to fear.
The markets seem to be up and some false rises partly due to the elections is not uncommon, also the low interest rates (some at least governmental policy). If you can not go to interest rates for a return some are in for the market for the returns.

It is the vaccine driving the markets as the apparent election results are obviously an economic drag.

Asian markets are also going up due to vaccine developments. Vaccine focus drives Asian stocks to record highs | Fox Business

We were told during the October 22 presidential debate that the current "apparent" election results would result in a stock market crash. I'm surprised there wasn't a big sell-off. It's almost as if nobody believed him.

Fact check: Will the stock market '''crash''' if Biden wins?

I think anyone with financial acumen knows he was speaking the truth. People must realize that the stock market numbers are where they are due to maneuvering of savings rates to push investments into the way overvalued stock market. This country’s debt is massive.

Sadly, I suspect the chickens will come home to roost shortly.:pray:

I'm going to stay with my opinions from about 2-1/2 months ago, as I think they are even more germane now. I have seen nothing, not even the great news of potentially two vaccines, that makes me change my mind on the underlying fundamentals of stocks, which I believe were significantly overheated even before the pandemic. Given that about 70% of our "economy" (not a stock price) is dependent on consumer spending, I find it hard to believe that we've even come close to finding out what the last horrible 6 months has done to the average American family's finances - re: ability to purchase future goods and services.

...

He was banned I think

30,000 Dow
3,600 S&P
12,000 Nas


Thank God it fell of it's rails.


Now we need to make these numbers into floors, not ceilings.


:coolsmiley:

Wonderful. Lots to be thankful for like not having to sit in 5 hour plus lines for food pantry handouts so we can celebrate on Thursday our record breaking economy.

Kinda puts the fear to rest for now about a new administration. Janet Yellen as the new Treasury Secretary is a plus factor for the market.

I was thinking that the news of the first Covid-19 vaccinations arriving as early as December influenced the stock market.

I never once thought it was anything else.

sell now before the insider traders sell off causing drop as it been done 100s of times.

The vaccine is a big boost but not the only one.

Stocks soar as Biden zeros in on Yellen as Treasury secretary | Fox Business

One would hope that once the virus is under control and the economy back to normal the govt will stop running huge deficits by getting the budget under control and while they are at it bring social security back to a firm footing.

Of course I also believe in the tooth fairy and Santa.

My view. The virus-we all tend to focus on one issue. If, the virus is brought under control by sold as miracles with no side effects vaccines, we will find other issues, see other issues.
Back to normal? That is a language a communication problem. Things never go back to normal. Normal itself, what is normal? We will, we always do create a new normal.
Deficits? Deficits have become the new normal. Our economy, interest rates are controlled by our government. It was not that long ago that a ten year treasury would pay 2% above the rate of inflation oh and not important in Florida, it was it is free of state and local taxes. Interesting and amusing to me the Fed which issues the bonds still take their full bite out of returns. I read a while ago that social security holds 40% of the national debt. As far as the rate of inflation the CPI consumer price index recently was calculated at 3.7%.
What to do? As I am not a professional or an advisor, I can state the truth-beats me.

Thanks for mentioning the deficits, which have simply skyrocketed.

I have beat that drum for a few years now, and it has gotten me lots of rude comments.

It will be with a few generations, and we can say we witnessed the explosion and never even cared

it's not the same network anymore. they've done their best & are now included in the msm

agreed. this was tried in Ct., & all it did was kill jobs & severely restrict whichever ones were left. it SOUNDS good, but doesn't work

Just look at all the money we are giving to foreign countries in the relief bill. This is all money that we are borrowing. It is like someone wants to destroy our economy.

very good thread. so many opinions & ideas, lots of good info. :icon_wink:

Not nessarily the problem. Do not listen to the loudest voices. This is not the problem. ONE PERCENT !

"Foreign aid is money, technical assistance, and commodities that the United States provides to other countries in support of a common interest of the U.S. and that country. Opinion polls consistently report that Americans believe foreign aid is about 25% of the federal budget, when it is actually less than 1%. As the world’s wealthiest nation, the U.S. provides more assistance than any other country, but a smaller proportion of its gross national product (GNP) than other wealthy nations. Historically, support for foreign aid has been bipartisan."

What every American should know about US foreign aid

Not really. The SS trust fund is about $2.9B (funds collected in excess of benefits paid plus earnings) and the national debt is about $23B. That is about 12%.