Nah not even close. Some day when everything we would like to do opens up again my post count will drop off substantially.

Does the word “Ponzi” ring a bell?

You would call the stock market a ponzi scheme? Sorry no way.

Now if you wanted to call the beginning of social security a ponzi scheme would not argue with you.

Yes I do believe today’s stock market is a “ legal” Ponzi scheme but we share the same opinion of SS. The winners in today’s market are being funded by tomorrow’s losers or future investors if you prefer. That said for the sake of my grandchildren I hope I’m wrong.

Stocks aren't anything like a Ponzi scheme.

Stocks Aren’t a Ponzi Scheme — Oblivious Investor

"In the last two years, one assertion I’ve heard over and over is that the stock market a giant Ponzi scheme — it only works if everybody continues to feed it money, and it collapses when people take their money out. A similar assertion is that the stock market is just a “greater fool game,” in which stocks’ only value lies in the hope that you can sell them at a higher price to a greater fool at some point in the future.

Both claims are nonsense.


Stocks Have Inherent Value

If the public at large decided that they wanted nothing to do with stocks, and they all pulled out (and this is, to a lesser extent, what goes on in severe bear markets), stocks wouldn’t become worthless. Yes, they’d be "worth less," but not "worthless."

Yes! Stock markets have only been around since the 1600s but soon someone will discover it's a ponzi scheme. Our poor grandchildren.

I retired in 1999. The fantasy on the job was take your lump sum retirement package and you’ll make more money in retirement than working. I did that and than along came...tech bubble. rising interest rates...falling interest rates..Great Recession...Pandemic. Usually if I made no withdrawals and waited a few years the IRA value was restored. Same with the Pandemic losses. If you live long enough your IRA value will be restored in time for your heirs to enjoy the money.
What I’ve learned after four Advisors. Some honest, some not. Some on Barrons top 100. On market downturns they will do nothing. “Stay fully invested”. IMO. Roth vs conventional IRA. No mandatory withdrawals after age 701/2 on Roth. Back in 1999 I got free financial advice from a local “expert” in the city newspaper. Asking would 6% bonds be a good investment? He said no. 6% bonds would have given me more than enough cash flow with money aside to invest in equities. Ah, the good old days.

Ponzi scheme
 

R If you are old enough you may remember that the only person who had “investments” was your old uncle Ed who had shares in Northern Pacific and AT&T and used that for the dividends. A real investor was Mr.Davis down the street who owned a “double” rental property.
The feeding frenzy started in about the late 90s when major companies by regulation (I think) could give you your pension money in a lump sum.
This resulted in an invitation to you and your wife for free dinner and seminar at an upscale steakhouse. At the seminar they showed how they would take your $100,000 pension lump and in ten years grow that to $1,000,000.
Results did not exceed expectations.

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I always kept quite a bit of cash (by my standards anyway) in Synchrony, an online bank. For ease of movement if needed - to keep very liquid. It was paying 2% a year ago, then 1% mid year, now .75%.

So about 4 months ago I decided to take a few Grand out and invest in the Market thru eTrade. Decided that auto stocks would be a good bet, esp since many are investing in elec/batt vehicles. And auto sales should take off once the COVID slows. So that investment was wise +++. Then researched some sole-elec vehicle stocks (not Tesla) - bought 3, and BAM! One is up 150% the others 50% (should have invested more, you know...).

Then a month ago bought 2 EFTs - one for Infrustructure stocks, other for elec vehicle mfrs. And they are slow growers for now - but should be a great long-term investment. So my play-money - rather than a measly .75% is now at 20%+, and should continue to grow nicely - no matter the politics.
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Source of your misinformation, please?
https://www.cnbc.miscom/2020/10/02/j...mber-2020.html
Jobs report October 2020: Unemployment rate slides, growth stronger than expected

If these guys are such genius's they would be retired on a tropical island,' We have gone to several of these dinner when at good restaurants and on occasion do get some good info which is used for my own investments.

Much better to develop a balanced portfolio of well run mutual funds with a good track record

I asked the original poster back in june what was his / her point about their declarative statement of the stock market being off the rails. The S+P 500 closed at 3230.78 on 12/31/2019. The month of March brought in the COVID panic, and on March 23, the S+P closed at 2237.40. On 6/5/2020, the day of the original post, the S+P 500 closed at 3193.93, retracing most, but not all of its "COVID" losses. The original post mentioned nothing of the nearly 50% decline. So did that qualify as the market being off the rails ? Yesterday, the market closed at 3585.15, making a YTD gain of nearly 11%. Very good, but off the rails ? More to the point.. did you keep with your investment strategy through the year, or buy high and panic sell low ? Did you buy the dip ? If you thought the market was off the rails on 6/5, then you must think it is bat $H*t crazy today. So then why not sell into the rally, and build yourself another year of retirement cash ? That will protect you from the next major dip. Last point, please do not canonize Alan Greenspan, who is best known for his irrational exuberance comment. A closer look to his tenure will lead you to the conclusion that his ignorance as Fed chairman was one of the major causes of the Financial / mortgage crises of the early 2000's. In today's terms, he would be duly categorized as a RINO, or worse.. a topic beyond this post's scope

The house next to our friends in Duval has 3 young women from NYC
that came here to WFH.

Why are markets so high today? Yes, as previously mentioned, it's in part due to the very low cost of borrowing (and buying back stocks), that small business failing means big business profits.

But, the markets were high before COVID. I think it's largely because there's no where else to go. With bond rates very low (and a risk if interest rates rise of losing money on bond holdings), and with fixed interest rates so low (that you're actually losing money after inflation and taxes) -- where else do you go? Gold, property, art? Those are tangible assets that can do well to offset inflation but not vehicles for the masses to save for retirement. So everyone goes for stocks and mutual funds. That drives up the price and the market and P/E ratios keep going up due to optimism that it's never going to end and perception that there's nowhere else to go.

What's wrong with that? What happens when interest rates rise? Yes, the government wants to keep rates low to fund the debt, but at some point the theory of unlimited demand for treasury bonds will be tested and rates may rise anyway. Then things will get very interesting. Bond returns will start rising and fixed rates as well. As people gradually start to move away from stocks to bonds/fixed returns the market may start falling. And it may fall (or remain flat) for a LONG time - perhaps the amount of time we saw the rise - decades.

But nobody knows when. I know many who got out of the market 3 years ago to miss out on great returns since. Trying to time the market is a scary thing. Divesting of asset types is likely a good idea. There are more strategies than just stocks/bonds/fixed.

wfh?