The stock market is off the rails

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  #31  
Old 09-02-2020, 09:26 PM
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Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby View Post
That's great news for people who have stocks. For the majority of the country, it is just one of those "oh, isn't that nice" pieces of information. Pass the salt.
If you include people who own mutual funds and IRA's and 401K's think that brings the percentage up quite a bit.
  #32  
Old 09-02-2020, 10:33 PM
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The current stock markets have no correlation to the actual economy right now. While only a little over 1/2 of us own stocks, in any form, right now everyone is punch-drunk on greed and thinking they are smart enough that they will have a chair when reality hits and the music stops. Covid has crippled the actual economy and those who don't own stocks know it, but most of those who do own or trade stocks refuse to believe it. So many jobs have either been permanently eliminated, or it will take a long time for them to come back, that stocks make absolutely no sense right now. When the bloodbath starts - it will be really ugly.
  #33  
Old 09-02-2020, 10:44 PM
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Here's one person that thinks the way I do and his personal indicator has only went up since this article last week.

Warren Buffett's favorite market indicator soars to record high, signaling stocks are overvalued and a crash may be coming | Markets Insider

The ratio reached a historic 183% on Wednesday, reflecting the breathless stock rally in recent months and the plunge in second-quarter GDP. Buffett said it was a "strong warning signal" when the indicator peaked before the dot-com crash.
  #34  
Old 09-02-2020, 10:45 PM
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The stock market reflects what people think will happen in the future. It pretty much has always worked that way. Also, with interest rates at essentially zero, the Fed has made the stock market the place to go, although the broader bond market is up almost 8% YTD. I would avoid using words like "everyone", "absolutely no sense", and "most of those" since you don't know what "everyone" is thinking. So, tell us how you have shorted the market in anticipation of the big correction. Yes, there will be a correction and "everyone" knows that because the market is cyclical.


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Originally Posted by tvbound View Post
The current stock markets have no correlation to the actual economy right now. While only a little over 1/2 of us own stocks, in any form, right now everyone is punch-drunk on greed and thinking they are smart enough that they will have a chair when reality hits and the music stops. Covid has crippled the actual economy and those who don't own stocks know it, but most of those who do own or trade stocks refuse to believe it. So many jobs have either been permanently eliminated, or it will take a long time for them to come back, that stocks make absolutely no sense right now. When the bloodbath starts - it will be really ugly.
  #35  
Old 09-02-2020, 10:58 PM
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I don't do "shorts," as I'm not that greedy or needy. I'm satisfied with just sitting on the sidelines for now. It's been a great run. One for the history books.
  #36  
Old 09-03-2020, 06:35 AM
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The stock market reflects what people think will happen in the future. It pretty much has always worked that way. Also, with interest rates at essentially zero, the Fed has made the stock market the place to go, although the broader bond market is up almost 8% YTD. I would avoid using words like "everyone", "absolutely no sense", and "most of those" since you don't know what "everyone" is thinking. So, tell us how you have shorted the market in anticipation of the big correction. Yes, there will be a correction and "everyone" knows that because the market is cyclical.
Anyone who says they can time the market is talking nonsense.

Best thing to do is dollar cost average or as close to that as you can come.

I do believe in the long term future of America and as long as you are ok riding out the bumps and bruises will do well in the long term.
  #37  
Old 09-03-2020, 06:46 AM
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Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby View Post
That's great news for people who have stocks. For the majority of the country, it is just one of those "oh, isn't that nice" pieces of information. Pass the salt.

Salt passers are clueless.......even if the passer does not have stocks/MF's, a strong market is correlated to a strong economy which impacts jobs & wages. The passer may not need jobs & wages, but they have family &/or friends who need jobs/wages.
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  #38  
Old 09-03-2020, 07:42 AM
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Correct. I believe the best approach is to decide on an asset allocation strategy and stick with it. The stock market has more upturns than downturns.

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Originally Posted by Stu from NYC View Post
Anyone who says they can time the market is talking nonsense.

Best thing to do is dollar cost average or as close to that as you can come.

I do believe in the long term future of America and as long as you are ok riding out the bumps and bruises will do well in the long term.
  #39  
Old 09-03-2020, 07:59 AM
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We watched comedian Rita Rudner on Amazon Prime last night...she talked a little about meeting with her new Financial Advisor....

Best line was "My Financial Advisor asked me what my risk tolerance was and wanted to know how much money I was willing to lose...(she paused)...why none of it I said" the crowd roared, as did we.

A previous doctor that I had before moving to TV and I had a discussion about the stock market...I recall him saying "I woke up in a total sweat the other night realizing that having all my retirement money in the stock market was the same as taking it to Vegas!"

There's and old saying....Bulls and Bears make money....pigs lose.
  #40  
Old 09-03-2020, 08:00 AM
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Originally Posted by dewilson58 View Post
Salt passers are clueless.......even if the passer does not have stocks/MF's, a strong market is correlated to a strong economy which impacts jobs & wages. The passer may not need jobs & wages, but they have family &/or friends who need jobs/wages.
As long as states are allowed to mandate a $7.25/hour minimum wage, the economy will be horrible.

Not everyone is destined to earn a 6-figure salary. SOMEONE has to bag your groceries. SOMEONE has to give you forms to fill out at the doctor's office. SOMEONE has to dry-clean your suit. SOMEONE has to groom your cat. SOMEONE has to polish your nails. SOMEONE has to pick the tomatoes off the vine, and SOMEONE has to stock them in the bins at the supermarket.

Those are all minimum wage jobs. Jobs that are necessary for "those with means" to be able to enjoy the life to which they have become accustomed.

When those employees are earning less than $200 per week and have to rely on themselves and spouse who also earns less than $200 per week for all living expenses, including day-care for the kids, clothing, food, gas, rent (because who's going to give someone who only earns $200/week a mortgage to buy a home?)...

for those people the economy is not good. It's not even mediocre. There are millions of people across the country who are living below the poverty level, most of whom would love to be lawyers and doctors and famous hollywood actors and TV producers and therapists and engineers and architects.

But they can't afford school. They can't afford to take time off from work to attend classes, AND take time away from their kids to dedicate hours in class instruction - even if it's online.

You keep these people poor because you need them to be poor. And then you tell everyone how awesome the economy is.

The economy is not good. It's lousy. STOCKS are good. But stocks /= economy.
  #41  
Old 09-03-2020, 08:08 AM
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Originally Posted by ColdNoMore View Post
According to this person's opinion anyway.
Stock market is Ponzi scheme and set up for insider’s the rest of us are just pawns they milk.
  #42  
Old 09-03-2020, 08:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby View Post
As long as states are allowed to mandate a $7.25/hour minimum wage, the economy will be horrible.

Not everyone is destined to earn a 6-figure salary. SOMEONE has to bag your groceries. SOMEONE has to give you forms to fill out at the doctor's office. SOMEONE has to dry-clean your suit. SOMEONE has to groom your cat. SOMEONE has to polish your nails. SOMEONE has to pick the tomatoes off the vine, and SOMEONE has to stock them in the bins at the supermarket.

Those are all minimum wage jobs. Jobs that are necessary for "those with means" to be able to enjoy the life to which they have become accustomed.

When those employees are earning less than $200 per week and have to rely on themselves and spouse who also earns less than $200 per week for all living expenses, including day-care for the kids, clothing, food, gas, rent (because who's going to give someone who only earns $200/week a mortgage to buy a home?)...

for those people the economy is not good. It's not even mediocre. There are millions of people across the country who are living below the poverty level, most of whom would love to be lawyers and doctors and famous hollywood actors and TV producers and therapists and engineers and architects.

But they can't afford school. They can't afford to take time off from work to attend classes, AND take time away from their kids to dedicate hours in class instruction - even if it's online.

You keep these people poor because you need them to be poor. And then you tell everyone how awesome the economy is.

The economy is not good. It's lousy. STOCKS are good. But stocks /= economy.


And therein you have the big elephant in the room that so many refuse to see — The Working Poor.
  #43  
Old 09-03-2020, 08:33 AM
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The GOLDEN RULE: Those that have the GOLD make the rules.

I learned long ago that the only ones that actually know what is going on are the very wealthy. (And I do not mean those with a few million.) I mean CEO's that earn $25 million a year and get stock options worth $100 million. Those guys.

They are in a special club and not likely to screw up by telling the rest of us anything. However I know a retired CEO that said, after many glasses of wine that the reason the stock market is back at Record highs despite Covid, no travel and millions of small business owners gone is:

1. Major Corporations can borrow money at ZERO interest rates. This is free money because they set up repayment far into the future while paying executives huge bonuses NOW.
2. Small businesses are crushed and their market share will eventually go to Major Corporations.
3. Safe retirement investments like CD's pay almost nothing tempting people to invest in the Stock Market with some of their savings.
4. The Dow has dropped OIL/Energy from their calculations. Oil/Energy is the TRUE MEASURE of everything as everything runs on OIL (No matter what you might want to believe) Oil/Energy stocks are down 50%. Exactly where we truly are.
5. Big Corporations will benefit no matter the election results. (I can't say why as that would trigger the forum sensors.)
  #44  
Old 09-03-2020, 08:56 AM
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Default Spot on

Quote:
Originally Posted by tvbound View Post
The current stock markets have no correlation to the actual economy right now. While only a little over 1/2 of us own stocks, in any form, right now everyone is punch-drunk on greed and thinking they are smart enough that they will have a chair when reality hits and the music stops. Covid has crippled the actual economy and those who don't own stocks know it, but most of those who do own or trade stocks refuse to believe it. So many jobs have either been permanently eliminated, or it will take a long time for them to come back, that stocks make absolutely no sense right now. When the bloodbath starts - it will be really ugly.
I think your spot on with your prediction. Time will tell.
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  #45  
Old 09-03-2020, 08:56 AM
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Don't claim that "You keep these people poor ... ". I am not keeping anyone poor. You, of course, fail to point out that 2% make minimum wage and that people move up and down in economic classes throught their life. I started out pretty much destitute when I was young but I didn't stay there for long. Many, not all, who are stuck in the lowest economic classes are there because of bad decisions they made. Do you want to avoid being poor? Finish high school, get a job, and don't have children before you are married. Marriage does wonders for your financial prospects.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OrangeBlossomBaby View Post
As long as states are allowed to mandate a $7.25/hour minimum wage, the economy will be horrible.

Not everyone is destined to earn a 6-figure salary. SOMEONE has to bag your groceries. SOMEONE has to give you forms to fill out at the doctor's office. SOMEONE has to dry-clean your suit. SOMEONE has to groom your cat. SOMEONE has to polish your nails. SOMEONE has to pick the tomatoes off the vine, and SOMEONE has to stock them in the bins at the supermarket.

Those are all minimum wage jobs. Jobs that are necessary for "those with means" to be able to enjoy the life to which they have become accustomed.

When those employees are earning less than $200 per week and have to rely on themselves and spouse who also earns less than $200 per week for all living expenses, including day-care for the kids, clothing, food, gas, rent (because who's going to give someone who only earns $200/week a mortgage to buy a home?)...

for those people the economy is not good. It's not even mediocre. There are millions of people across the country who are living below the poverty level, most of whom would love to be lawyers and doctors and famous hollywood actors and TV producers and therapists and engineers and architects.

But they can't afford school. They can't afford to take time off from work to attend classes, AND take time away from their kids to dedicate hours in class instruction - even if it's online.

You keep these people poor because you need them to be poor. And then you tell everyone how awesome the economy is.

The economy is not good. It's lousy. STOCKS are good. But stocks /= economy.

Last edited by biker1; 09-03-2020 at 11:39 AM.
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