[FredJacobs]

Depending on when you cashed out, hopefully you didn't take your paper losses and make them into actual losses. Will you return to the stock market? How will you know when the right time is to get back in? When you see a solid upward trend or when the market is back to where it was?

I spent 20 years as a Financial Consultant. I have faith in the market and have never sold during any of the market downturns. If you look at a graph of market performance over the last 70 years, you will see some serious market dips. You will also see that these are followed by recoveries that go well beyond the previous market highs. I have never panicked during a serious preferring to "ride it out." This way, I will never miss the upturn or have to worry when is the right time to get back in. During this current crisis and the market reaching "Bear" territory, I held my position, continued to receive dividends and, as of today, have recovered over 70% of my paper loss. I have good feelings about being made whole before year end.

[retiredguy123]

I think the overall economy will take several years to recover in terms of jobs, bankrupcies, business profits, tax revenues, etc. But, I am surprised that the stock market does not seem to have "factored in" these future economic hard times. The S&P Index today is at about the same level that it was a year ago, when the econony was great and no one had even heard about the Coronavirus. I don't understand it, but it just seems very unusual to me.

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by FredJacobs

Depending on when you cashed out, hopefully you didn't take your paper losses and make them into actual losses. Will you return to the stock market? How will you know when the right time is to get back in? When you see a solid upward trend or when the market is back to where it was?

I spent 20 years as a Financial Consultant. I have faith in the market and have never sold during any of the market downturns. If you look at a graph of market performance over the last 70 years, you will see some serious market dips. You will also see that these are followed by recoveries that go well beyond the previous market highs. I have never panicked during a serious preferring to "ride it out." This way, I will never miss the upturn or have to worry when is the right time to get back in. During this current crisis and the market reaching "Bear" territory, I held my position, continued to receive dividends and, as of today, have recovered over 70% of my paper loss. I have good feelings about being made whole before year end.

No idea if we will be made whole by the market by the end of the year but agree with holding the course and riding it out.

Most brilliant people in the world cannot always time the market how can the rest of us?

[LSTOWELL]

Originally Posted by tvbound

While the argument of pushing to "open everything back up and getting back to normal" versus the "let's go slow" rages on, it seems to me that the stock markets are acting like there's no chance a gaping maw may be ahead of our stagecoach.

It made me personally feel better regarding the actions I've taken recently (going all to cash) when I read this article, since I totally agree with the author.

Why I Cashed Out of the Covid-19 Rally

Having a portfolio of long-term stock investments in tax-deferred plans, as well as the proceeds from a recently sold house and anticipating purchasing a home in The Villages in the coming months, I've decided I'm going to sit on the sidelines for a while.

I guess my viewpoint being, that I am concerned that even if this virus were to magically disappear tomorrow (almost a zero chance of that), how in the heck will the worldwide economy just go back to where it was? 70% of our (world) economy is (was?) based on consumer spending, so even with the trillions spent so far (how to pay it back is for another thread) in just the USA, who really expects consumer spending to be "pent-up" so much that it will come back to even close to what it was? I think the more important question is; "how many years will it take to get back to even close to where we were prior to Covid-19?"

Greenspan's famous statement of "irrational exuberance"-keeps running through my head. And if I'm dead wrong, the economy picks up right where it left off, all of the markets continue to grow and I miss out, I personally (especially at this age) will still be satisfied with how things have gone since 2009 and won't miss waking up, wondering if this is the day the bottom falls out.

Thoughts, comments?

Exactly... Did that last month and happy to sit idle till after the election and a vaccination...
Easier to sleep at night

[LSTOWELL]

Originally Posted by retiredguy123

Actually, the S&P 500 Index is only down about one percent over the past 12 months. The only thing that might make sense would be to convert your stocks to cash, because the bond prices are already too high with no place to go but down. I don't plan to do anything because selling stocks would mean paying a huge amount in capital gains taxes, and I don't need the money. Nobody knows where stock prices will go in the future, so I think it is a personal decision to make. I usually don't try to predict the stock market, but it does seem strange to me that the stock market has stayed as high as it has recently.

Except for IRAs...no penalty to do that....cash out and wait till things quiet down then go back to mutual funds or stocks

[Stu from NYC]

Originally Posted by LSTOWELL

Except for IRAs...no penalty to do that....cash out and wait till things quiet down then go back to mutual funds or stocks

People call that sell low buy hi.

[jedalton]

Originally Posted by tvbound

While the argument of pushing to "open everything back up and getting back to normal" versus the "let's go slow" rages on, it seems to me that the stock markets are acting like there's no chance a gaping maw may be ahead of our stagecoach.

It made me personally feel better regarding the actions I've taken recently (going all to cash) when I read this article, since I totally agree with the author.

Why I Cashed Out of the Covid-19 Rally

Having a portfolio of long-term stock investments in tax-deferred plans, as well as the proceeds from a recently sold house and anticipating purchasing a home in The Villages in the coming months, I've decided I'm going to sit on the sidelines for a while.

I guess my viewpoint being, that I am concerned that even if this virus were to magically disappear tomorrow (almost a zero chance of that), how in the heck will the worldwide economy just go back to where it was? 70% of our (world) economy is (was?) based on consumer spending, so even with the trillions spent so far (how to pay it back is for another thread) in just the USA, who really expects consumer spending to be "pent-up" so much that it will come back to even close to what it was? I think the more important question is; "how many years will it take to get back to even close to where we were prior to Covid-19?"

Greenspan's famous statement of "irrational exuberance"-keeps running through my head. And if I'm dead wrong, the economy picks up right where it left off, all of the markets continue to grow and I miss out, I personally (especially at this age) will still be satisfied with how things have gone since 2009 and won't miss waking up, wondering if this is the day the bottom falls out.

Thoughts, comments?

the only problem you have is when do you get back in? You want to buy when stocks are on sale. I'm up $30,000 in last 4 months. Bought amzn, goog, tsla fb when they were very lows. it a 3-5 year hold on these stocks

[chrissy2231]

Buy physical commodity gold & silver. They will sky rocket like they did in the 1980s.

[vzw1pr]

Very simply, if your allocation keeps you up worrying about your wealth you are not balanced for your risk tolerance. This is a very basic fact of investing. Remember, when seeking financial advice what is good for one is not necessarily good for you! The bottom line its YOUR money.

[dougawhite]

For those waiting for the next major drop in the market it's simple. Just wait until I decide to buy back into the market. Guaranteed a huge drop will occur within days, or even hours of that moment.

[TABOR8]

Originally Posted by tvbound

While the argument of pushing to "open everything back up and getting back to normal" versus the "let's go slow" rages on, it seems to me that the stock markets are acting like there's no chance a gaping maw may be ahead of our stagecoach.

It made me personally feel better regarding the actions I've taken recently (going all to cash) when I read this article, since I totally agree with the author.

Why I Cashed Out of the Covid-19 Rally

Having a portfolio of long-term stock investments in tax-deferred plans, as well as the proceeds from a recently sold house and anticipating purchasing a home in The Villages in the coming months, I've decided I'm going to sit on the sidelines for a while.

I guess my viewpoint being, that I am concerned that even if this virus were to magically disappear tomorrow (almost a zero chance of that), how in the heck will the worldwide economy just go back to where it was? 70% of our (world) economy is (was?) based on consumer spending, so even with the trillions spent so far (how to pay it back is for another thread) in just the USA, who really expects consumer spending to be "pent-up" so much that it will come back to even close to what it was? I think the more important question is; "how many years will it take to get back to even close to where we were prior to Covid-19?"

Greenspan's famous statement of "irrational exuberance"-keeps running through my head. And if I'm dead wrong, the economy picks up right where it left off, all of the markets continue to grow and I miss out, I personally (especially at this age) will still be satisfied with how things have gone since 2009 and won't miss waking up, wondering if this is the day the bottom falls out.

Thoughts, comments?

Do you have to pay a penalty to the investment company if you cash out?

[Jcreason]

So in your team!!!

[tvbound]

Originally Posted by TABOR8

Do you have to pay a penalty to the investment company if you cash out?

I didn't actually "cash out" (take a distribution from) anything and therefore capital gains and/or gross income at the end of the year is unaffected. I just put all of it in a different fund, whose goal is to basically dog-paddle in place.

Looking at the DJIA just now (down 484 as of 1:40PM), maybe it was bad ju-ju even starting this thread.

[oldkatz]

Still spending and buying what I want only now online and I love the home delivery

[mmastin]

Hi, my name is Mike. I read all of the information and as a matter of fact, there is a lot of misconception as to rates of returns and fees.
I've been an accountant for over 40 years and have studied these investments as per my job for 40 years. There has never been any body that has made any where close to 8% return per year. In fact, the largest I've ever seen is 1% per year. The actual way to determine this is simple interest that every one learned in high school. Market value minus your cost basis = unrealized gain or loss divided by the number of years you have had the money invested.
The other thing I want to mention is the actual fees charged by mutual funds are not 1% or .5% per year. It is a deception. The real thing is expenses are always ratio'd against income, never assets, and when you look up the annual reports of each fund, including Vanguard, you will see the "expense to income ratio" is more like 60% of the income. Therefore, they take around 6-7% of your money every year before you make anything. So the market is going down, you still lose an additional 7%. Since the high of the DOW and the NASDAQ and the S&P 500, which is 95% of the market, it has lost as of today 21%, it will take you 30% to gain it back, but what are you gaining back to? A 1% per year rate of return.
These are just facts, not lies, that are presented to you by brokerage firms and mutual fund companies as they do not have a fiduciary responsibility, like accountants or doctors do, which means they can lie to you. There are many lawsuits currently going on that "so called financial advisors" are suing the department of labor not to implement the fiduciary law. In other words, they want to lie to you. These are not opinions. They are facts.
If you have any other questions regarding any of this, feel free to reach out to me via private message.

-- Mike Mastin
Accountant