Talk of The Villages Florida - Rentals, Entertainment & More
Talk of The Villages Florida - Rentals, Entertainment & More
#46
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Financials are at ridiculously low levels.
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#47
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There is our 10% correction.
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Identifying as Mr. Helpful |
#48
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If only National Geographic hadn't won in 2019. Tough break on the 2020 nominations for TIME, though, eh? Well, all isn't lost. They are up for the photography award.
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#49
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#50
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The market reacting to fear.
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#51
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Just curious did any of you get a call from your broker/advisor in the A. last week B. last month with any advice. If so what ?
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#52
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My broker/advisor is me. My advice to my client is to do nothing.
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#53
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Exhibiting apoplexy due to totally fake news sources, like Breitbart...weren't nominated?
Last edited by ColdNoMore; 02-27-2020 at 05:49 PM. |
#54
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I heard a TV-business guy say this afternoon that this precipitous percentage drop in the DOW/NASDAQ/S&P has been faster since the 1930's. That makes it quite unique. Now sure, the markets have had an unusually fast run-up since December, too. But as of this writing, I'm not seeing news relief that will assuage fears. There's too much uncertainty. And it doesn't have to be said the many retirees are not in a position to sustain high-percentage investment losses (hopefully most are conservative). So, stay the course and wait for everything to return to normal? I took some protective action for principal preservation a while back, and have increased that this week. I've been fortunate so as not to have lost too much since the bottom's been falling out. But I have lost $$$ on paper...make no mistake about it. I just don't see this calming down right away. Everyone's situation is unique to them, of course. But unless your investments are just "play money", I'd advise doing something to at least protect some of it. Just my opinion. Good luck. |
#55
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As I stated in my post way back, I enjoy trying to slake my thirst for knowledge...from a plethora of sources. Even the obviously fake and conspiratorial ones, at least provide...entertainment and some belly laughs. |
#56
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#57
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Without a doubt, the fears of what the coronavirus can do to the world economy in the immediate future...is manifesting itself in the markets right now.
Particularly, with all of the unknowns of the virus. The basic tenets of the "Johari Window"...seems to apply to this virus. In other words, "Known unknowns result from recognized but poorly understood phenomena. On the other hand, unknown unknowns are phenomena which cannot be expected, because there has been no prior experience or theoretical basis for expecting the phenomena" This being based on the fact that although "the flu" has many times the cases and causes more deaths than what has occurred with the coronavirus, the actual percentage of fatalities from those getting coronavirus...are 23 times higher than the flu. Coronavirus Lethality (click here) Quote:
As for our (and the world's) economy, it's my opinion that this virus gives cover to those who have refused to recognize how overvalued and precarious...most markets have become for a while now. Leading indicators have shown for months, that even after the 'sugar rush high' of tax cuts (resulting mostly in stock buy-backs)/lowered interest rates/reduced costs of industries to protect the environment, have worn off and the long-term effects of tariff's come home to roost...that things have significantly slowed down. Most people our age shouldn't be in high risk/high reward stock positions anyway, but this is IMHO (for those 51% of us that own stocks in some form or another)...a definite wake-up call. And just like everyone else invested in stocks, I too have watched mine erode lately...and don't like it. I have been publicly honest about becoming ever more leery of the longest bull market in history and even though there were times I naturally had twinges of experiencing FOMO (fear of missing out) as the market kept rising in starts and fits, I will now resist those feelings...and just be grateful for the last 12 years. And if the right time, in my own mind, to become really aggressive again doesn't come along again before I kick the bucket, it will be my kids that will have to be the ones ticked off...at anything I left on the table. Being more "conservative" (click here) Quote:
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#58
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#59
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As a part time trader since 1981, and having run some predictive analysis on market behavior on the last 20 years of daily data, this move has several components to it:
Trading wise from the beginning of February, I am long $GLD gold I am long PUTS on the $SPY Aug 300 strike I am long PUTS on TSLA Jan 21 $210 strike on the bankruptcy of that ponzi scheme Long small assortment of high dividend equities, and bonds. So, normal overbought oversold indicators are going to be less useful The closet resemblance to this non monetary / banking crises is the 9/11 incident. After 9/11 when the market opened on Monday, the market dropped 10% intraday, and then rallied to close down about 5%, Tuesday was flat and the rest of the week was red. 5 day reaction and the next Monday the market reversed and continued higher With that and the weekend news cycle, my expected market scenario is that the market may have another significant down day due to some trading houses giving margin calls and changing margin requirements, and freezing some traders. predict another 3-5% down, again it is a prediction and the future is always uncertain. Given any significant bad news over the week, Monday could be a Black Monday crash, which happens at very oversold levels where bids disappear. A no bid market with an oversold market, which is when there are no buyers left to buy, falls dramatically. Another 5% or so gets the market close to a 20% correction, which is a bounce location worthy of a 25% portfolio position in $SPY. The predictive part comes in if Monday is a big down day, then Tuesday has a high probability of a bounce lasting the rest of the week only. (that predictive is related to option expiry cycles) If he market gets to 30% down from high, its worthy of a 50% market position. At 50% down, its worthy of adding another 25% increase in market exposure at 75%, I am all in. Given I own gold, and have sold most stocks a long time ago for valuation and earnings growth and market breadth issues, I have plenty of cash waiting, and one very interesting point in history: The roaring 20's followed the 1918 Spanish flu, in combination with the technology advancement of electrification, so remember to sell high, you must not be afraid of paying taxes, and to buy low, you must not be afraid of further downside, but the future is always uncertain, sometimes more so than other times. sportsguy |
#60
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If this wakes voters to reality, then I consider it god sent.
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Closed Thread |
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