Fair value is the value that reflects discounted future earnings. Since no one knows what future earnings will be, or uses the same discount rate, fair value is the market consensus of these two factors. When the market can not reach a consensus of what fair value actually is, volatility exists, which is where we currently are.

I figure S&P500 1500 low...2000 high. The USD almost guarantees high side.

BTW - You can just dismiss those who fixate on the DJIA :)

"Gubbermint Leadership" is always code for stealing wealth from the bottom 90% (aka, The Basket of Deplorables) and transferring it to the upper 10% (aka, The 1%).

Bring it on! :)

That is the theory, and having tried it, and watched investment bankers try to do it, and having been in corporate M&A, tried it my self with inside information, reality doesn't work so well. Damodarian who wrote a novel on valuation has never been able to make money with his DCF models and actual investments.

With the markets limit down overnight, now is a good time to just be patient and wait.

18 holes to discuss the markets?

sportsguy

Ask Yourself - What would Jesse Livermore do? LOL

(Everybody still in the speculation game should read his book.)

$300B tossed at Repo - $1.5T QE (aka, Stealing)...just today.

Another Federal Reserve "Catch the Falling Knife" Friday?

Last night was a great time to purchase cruise line stocks. Sold this afternoon and got back +100% of my prior losses. I'm a great trader.






(and everything posting on ToTV is true)

Why didn't you post that yesterday?

Some catch of the falling knife just before close...eh? Wonder who did that :) There is no price discovery...just theft and fraud. Central Bank economics is just a confidence game. Trump knows this...He has been in the game all his life.

Repo to $500B per day. QE to multi-trillions coming. The Central Bankers will own us all.

Give me a criminal gang with guns and jails called "Government" and a counterfeit money racket called "Central Bank" and I would own everything and everyone as well. LOL.

It must be getting more difficult for them. Scaring everyone with a virus in order to cover your criminality is pretty extreme. But it has been incredibly effective :)

lurked in background here but never posted, I think your broker is right, trying to "plan" for a disaster,correction, meltdown during the process is like trying to catch a falling safe, a balanced portfolio of investments constructed for your situation and risk tolerance is always the best long term approach

The Fed just dropped rates to 0%. :shocked:

When the only thing that supports the market is the Federal reserve shooting one of the last arrows in their quiver, don’t make the mistake of thinking Friday’s bounce is the end of the bear market.

My opinion - huge mistake. Fed just signaled we are in big trouble here. No more bullets left in the quiver. My guess is this will backfire tomorrow. 0% interest great if you are borrowing not good if you are a senior just trying to be safe. The Fed just gave the banks a free coupon to charge us for the privilege of holding our money from this day forward.

Yeah.. Investors weren't impressed. Futures are already limit down..

Symbolic. Banks are not borrowing. They are liquid.


Fed still has bullets to fire.

:clap2:

The only bullets they have left to fire will be at the USA taxpayers, especially the younger generations. The Feds last remaining bullet to fire now that Fed Fund rates are zero is injecting liquidity into the markets (referred to as quantitive easing). QA is fed speak to disguise going further into debt, which can only go two ways. Default, or on the backs as a very heavy burden of future generations. The third possible outcome, paying down the debt by running many years of budget surplus, has become an unattainable pipe dream given our countries addiction to spending and the fact that simply paying the interest on the debt will eat up most of the tax revenues. Unfortunately, our Governments lack of fiscal discipline, going back through multiple administrations, have left us in this very precarious situation. Oh well, at least the golf courses are still open, and even without a priority membership I can get a good T-Time these days.

Our Fed Owners just shot their entire wad...Unlimited currency counterfeiting and purchasing, aka, Stealing.
Let's see what they do today. Wanna guess?

Will losses magically disappear at 3:00 PM?

Who needs nuclear weapons to destroy the world when all you need is a central bank, mass media, and a virus scare :) All they have to do now is link the words "Climate Change Causes Viruses", and they will own us all.

Silver under $13 per ounce.. Wow!

Intel is down to 44.61. I'm starting to be slightly disappointed. Just slightly since I don't own much of it. If it becomes worthless I'll be out the initial $50 investment. But at its height, it was worth over $8000. That would've been a couple of really nice dinners out, a new bathing suit, and the cash to combine with a trade-in on my old jalopy for a decent newer vehicle.

You got to know when to hold them, know when to fold them, know when to walk away and know when to run.

Wait
 

Well, I kinda planned my finances to die on the day of my last dollar. Death may come sooner than anticipated now.:a20: Meanwhile, gas is cheap and I'm stockpiling in anticipation of the hurricane.

Prime is now 0.0% - 0.25%.

"Money for nothin' and..."

We're now basically out of ammunition for stimulus, except for cutting those items (Social Security/Medicare/Medicaid/Etc.) that have been considered until now..."the third rail."

It will be interesting to see, who reaches in first...to be electrocuted.

I suppose some people might think another tax cut for the wealthy and corp's might help, so +-75% of companies can buy back even more stock...thereby helping the 51% of Americans who own stocks.

Not sure how that's gonna help the other 49% though. :ohdear:

Depending on how far mortgage rates fall, some people may be looking at financing/refinancing their homes...and taking a lot of equity out.

Particularly for those people whose retirement is mostly in a defined contribution plan...and not a solvent defined benefit plan.

A 70-80 year old that takes out a 30 year mortgage, uses the money to buy more stocks at the lowest level in years, or just have the cash as a buffer for uncovered medical expenses...might not be a bad option.

I, for one, have a lot of empathy right now for those who aren't fortunate enough to have a solid and well-funded...defined benefit plan.

Because the scary part is, that a lot of the old defined benefit plans are heavily invested in stocks...so as to maintain that defined benefit for retirees.

Here's hoping we all pull out of this in good shape...and soon. :(

Ha, and therein lies the secret. :bigbow:

For some time Buffet has been chastised for sitting on a large cash position. I have hung in there with him as an investor in BRK as he is a lot smarter than I am. It will be interesting to see if, when and what he buys.

IMHO the P/Es of the S&P and DJIA have been running quite high. They likely will dip below their historical 15ish average before they stop dropping.

We live in interesting times.

Don’t make the mistake of assuming defined benefit plans, which were questionably funded before the market crash and are typically invested very heavily in risky assets classes, will come out of this solvent. And also don’t assume the Pension Benefit Gurantee Corporation will have the capital to bail out multiple insolvent plans.

That is why I took the cash equivalent in 2005 when I retired. But it takes discipline to manage that money. And of course once again I was the idiot per my peers ! Ha Ha. My sleep has never been better.

Many defined benefit plans (ok, the ones that still exist) have an option for a lump-sum payout at the outset of benefits, vs. depending upon the company to cover the pension over one's lifetime. The company's pension annuity payout is probably somewhat better than one could do on their own when purchasing an annuity in the outside market But, you can also use the lump sum for other investments, like IRAs.

I like my company, but do I think their pension is going to be solvent as long as I need it? No.

My company has (criminally) underfunded its retirement program for years - despite being a large government contractor who gets much of its defined benefit pension programs underwritten by the government in its defense contracts. I love the monthly checks, but I have a big concern about their ability to continue over the long run, as the actual funding of the program was underfunded by over $17 billion in 2018. Since then they have added some new funding, but obviously the current state of the investment world will have a further negative impact.

Is this a good time to sell gold and can you give reputable place to sell? Secondly did anyone hear of the possible withdrawal of up to $100,000 from our IRA's without paying taxes? A friend recently said she heard the latter is to happen soon.

No, about the IRA. But, if you are over 59 1/2, you can withdraw any amount from a traditional IRA without a "penalty". You just need to pay tax on it.

A number of us are facing underfunded private sector pension funds, the price you pay for "greatest stock market ever" and taxpayer backing of these pension funds. Public sector will soon have to worry soon.

Watching the Central Bank counterfeiting criminals buy the entire world with Trillions$ they create out of thin air is just surreal. Not 1 in 1000 understand what is really going on. I wouldn't worry about the Taxtaker Parasite Sector pension funds...They will be bailed out State and Local.

TOPHCFA Hoboy!! Were you right. I own about 10 000 shares of RWM for the last 10 years, I think now is the time to sell, what do you think....? They represent almost half of my assets including my house.