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  #46  
Old 02-27-2020, 02:28 AM
villagerjack villagerjack is offline
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Financials are at ridiculously low levels.
  #47  
Old 02-27-2020, 08:11 AM
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There is our 10% correction.
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Mr. Isolated.
  #48  
Old 02-27-2020, 08:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ColdNoMore View Post

Quote:
The American Society of Magazine Editors has recognized TIME as a finalist for General Excellence in the News, Sports and Entertainment category for the 2019 National Magazine Awards for Print and Digital Media.

If only National Geographic hadn't won in 2019. Tough break on the 2020 nominations for TIME, though, eh? Well, all isn't lost. They are up for the photography award.
  #49  
Old 02-27-2020, 09:12 AM
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Originally Posted by ColdNoMore View Post
Getting TIME on a 10" tablet works great. Been a subscriber since college.
  #50  
Old 02-27-2020, 10:23 AM
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The market reacting to fear.
  #51  
Old 02-27-2020, 03:30 PM
rustyp rustyp is offline
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Just curious did any of you get a call from your broker/advisor in the A. last week B. last month with any advice. If so what ?
  #52  
Old 02-27-2020, 03:38 PM
retiredguy123 retiredguy123 is offline
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Originally Posted by rustyp View Post
Just curious did any of you get a call from your broker/advisor in the A. last week B. last month with any advice. If so what ?
My broker/advisor is me. My advice to my client is to do nothing.
  #53  
Old 02-27-2020, 04:40 PM
ColdNoMore ColdNoMore is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Heyitsrick View Post
If only National Geographic hadn't won in 2019. Tough break on the 2020 nominations for TIME, though, eh? Well, all isn't lost. They are up for the photography award.
Exhibiting apoplexy due to totally fake news sources, like Breitbart...weren't nominated?

Last edited by ColdNoMore; 02-27-2020 at 05:49 PM.
  #54  
Old 02-27-2020, 04:42 PM
Heyitsrick Heyitsrick is offline
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My broker/advisor is me. My advice to my client is to do nothing.
In "normal" times, I would agree with that self-advice. This seems quite different to me. People are freaked, and businesses worldwide are publicly stating that they won't be able to make their numbers for the foreseeable future. There's been a report that someone in CA with no apparent contact with COVID-19 carriers is now infected. That scares people.

I heard a TV-business guy say this afternoon that this precipitous percentage drop in the DOW/NASDAQ/S&P has been faster since the 1930's. That makes it quite unique. Now sure, the markets have had an unusually fast run-up since December, too. But as of this writing, I'm not seeing news relief that will assuage fears. There's too much uncertainty. And it doesn't have to be said the many retirees are not in a position to sustain high-percentage investment losses (hopefully most are conservative).

So, stay the course and wait for everything to return to normal? I took some protective action for principal preservation a while back, and have increased that this week. I've been fortunate so as not to have lost too much since the bottom's been falling out. But I have lost $$$ on paper...make no mistake about it. I just don't see this calming down right away. Everyone's situation is unique to them, of course. But unless your investments are just "play money", I'd advise doing something to at least protect some of it. Just my opinion. Good luck.
  #55  
Old 02-27-2020, 04:44 PM
ColdNoMore ColdNoMore is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chi-Town View Post
Getting TIME on a 10" tablet works great. Been a subscriber since college.



As I stated in my post way back, I enjoy trying to slake my thirst for knowledge...from a plethora of sources.

Even the obviously fake and conspiratorial ones, at least provide...entertainment and some belly laughs.
  #56  
Old 02-27-2020, 05:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Heyitsrick View Post
In "normal" times, I would agree with that self-advice. This seems quite different to me. People are freaked, and businesses worldwide are publicly stating that they won't be able to make their numbers for the foreseeable future. There's been a report that someone in CA with no apparent contact with COVID-19 carriers is now infected. That scares people.

I heard a TV-business guy say this afternoon that this precipitous percentage drop in the DOW/NASDAQ/S&P has been faster since the 1930's. That makes it quite unique. Now sure, the markets have had an unusually fast run-up since December, too. But as of this writing, I'm not seeing news relief that will assuage fears. There's too much uncertainty. And it doesn't have to be said the many retirees are not in a position to sustain high-percentage investment losses (hopefully most are conservative).

So, stay the course and wait for everything to return to normal? I took some protective action for principal preservation a while back, and have increased that this week. I've been fortunate so as not to have lost too much since the bottom's been falling out. But I have lost $$$ on paper...make no mistake about it. I just don't see this calming down right away. Everyone's situation is unique to them, of course. But unless your investments are just "play money", I'd advise doing something to at least protect some of it. Just my opinion. Good luck.
One of the best posts I have ever seen here. Your honesty is a virtue I can admire.
  #57  
Old 02-27-2020, 07:09 PM
ColdNoMore ColdNoMore is offline
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Without a doubt, the fears of what the coronavirus can do to the world economy in the immediate future...is manifesting itself in the markets right now.

Particularly, with all of the unknowns of the virus.

The basic tenets of the "Johari Window"...seems to apply to this virus.

In other words, "Known unknowns result from recognized but poorly understood phenomena. On the other hand, unknown unknowns are phenomena which cannot be expected, because there has been no prior experience or theoretical basis for expecting the phenomena"

This being based on the fact that although "the flu" has many times the cases and causes more deaths than what has occurred with the coronavirus, the actual percentage of fatalities from those getting coronavirus...are 23 times higher than the flu.


Coronavirus Lethality (click here)

Quote:
BEIJING (AP) — There's lots of confusion about how deadly the new coronavirus from China really is: Even health officials sometimes say "deadly" when they may mean "lethal."

Lethality is how often a disease proves fatal. For coronavirus, that's estimated at 2.3 percent in the current outbreak. That means more than one in fifty people die after being infected with coronavirus.

The flu's lethality is 0.1 percent. It kills about one in every thousand people infected with it.

That means the coronavirus is 23 times more lethal than the flu.

In the United States, about 36,000 people die from the flu each year.

The coronavirus has killed 1,868 patients in mainland China and five others elsewhere. It has also infected around 73,000 people.


As for our (and the world's) economy, it's my opinion that this virus gives cover to those who have refused to recognize how overvalued and precarious...most markets have become for a while now.

Leading indicators have shown for months, that even after the 'sugar rush high' of tax cuts (resulting mostly in stock buy-backs)/lowered interest rates/reduced costs of industries to protect the environment, have worn off and the long-term effects of tariff's come home to roost...that things have significantly slowed down.

Most people our age shouldn't be in high risk/high reward stock positions anyway, but this is IMHO (for those 51% of us that own stocks in some form or another)...a definite wake-up call.

And just like everyone else invested in stocks, I too have watched mine erode lately...and don't like it.

I have been publicly honest about becoming ever more leery of the longest bull market in history and even though there were times I naturally had twinges of experiencing FOMO (fear of missing out) as the market kept rising in starts and fits, I will now resist those feelings...and just be grateful for the last 12 years.

And if the right time, in my own mind, to become really aggressive again doesn't come along again before I kick the bucket, it will be my kids that will have to be the ones ticked off...at anything I left on the table.

Being more "conservative" (click here)

Quote:
Originally Posted by ColdNoMore
Posted on 5-2-2019

I got chicken a little while back and went a lot more conservative, after the big drop before X-Mas...and then when the DJIA bounced back to just under 26,000.

While it may climb even higher, with this being the longest bull run in history...it's just my opinion we're due for a pretty large correction soon.

And while I may lose out in the meantime, I don't suffer from FOMO (fear of missing out)...because NO ONE can time the market perfectly.

I hung on during the Great Recession when the DJIA dropped to around 8,000 and am darned glad I did...as the DOW increased by over 2 times from then to up to 2016.

I keep thinking about the billionaire who was asked about how he became so wealthy and his response was..."By selling too early."
Even if this virus is miraculously hammered and stopped in its tracks next week, it still won't personally change my mind that we're experiencing a period of..."irrational exuberance."
  #58  
Old 02-27-2020, 10:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Heyitsrick View Post
In "normal" times, I would agree with that self-advice. This seems quite different to me. People are freaked, and businesses worldwide are publicly stating that they won't be able to make their numbers for the foreseeable future. There's been a report that someone in CA with no apparent contact with COVID-19 carriers is now infected. That scares people.

I heard a TV-business guy say this afternoon that this precipitous percentage drop in the DOW/NASDAQ/S&P has been faster since the 1930's. That makes it quite unique. Now sure, the markets have had an unusually fast run-up since December, too. But as of this writing, I'm not seeing news relief that will assuage fears. There's too much uncertainty. And it doesn't have to be said the many retirees are not in a position to sustain high-percentage investment losses (hopefully most are conservative).

So, stay the course and wait for everything to return to normal? I took some protective action for principal preservation a while back, and have increased that this week. I've been fortunate so as not to have lost too much since the bottom's been falling out. But I have lost $$$ on paper...make no mistake about it. I just don't see this calming down right away. Everyone's situation is unique to them, of course. But unless your investments are just "play money", I'd advise doing something to at least protect some of it. Just my opinion. Good luck.
Curious as to what principal preservation you are employing during this freefall.
  #59  
Old 02-27-2020, 10:54 PM
CoachKandSportsguy CoachKandSportsguy is offline
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As a part time trader since 1981, and having run some predictive analysis on market behavior on the last 20 years of daily data, this move has several components to it:
  • Unquantifiable and potentially large effects on the economy
    potential bankruptcies from prolong supply disruptions
    high debt levels in the corporate world.
    slowing international trade and economies prior to the virus
    Rate cuts won't help much

Trading wise
from the beginning of February,
I am long $GLD gold
I am long PUTS on the $SPY Aug 300 strike
I am long PUTS on TSLA Jan 21 $210 strike on the bankruptcy of that ponzi scheme
Long small assortment of high dividend equities, and bonds.


So, normal overbought oversold indicators are going to be less useful
The closet resemblance to this non monetary / banking crises is the 9/11 incident.
After 9/11 when the market opened on Monday, the market dropped 10% intraday,
and then rallied to close down about 5%, Tuesday was flat and the rest of the week was red. 5 day reaction and the next Monday the market reversed and continued higher

With that and the weekend news cycle, my expected market scenario is that the market may have another significant down day due to some trading houses giving margin calls and changing margin requirements, and freezing some traders. predict another 3-5% down, again it is a prediction and the future is always uncertain.

Given any significant bad news over the week, Monday could be a Black Monday crash, which happens at very oversold levels where bids disappear. A no bid market with an oversold market, which is when there are no buyers left to buy, falls dramatically. Another 5% or so gets the market close to a 20% correction, which is a bounce location worthy of a 25% portfolio position in $SPY. The predictive part comes in if Monday is a big down day, then Tuesday has a high probability of a bounce lasting the rest of the week only. (that predictive is related to option expiry cycles)

If he market gets to 30% down from high, its worthy of a 50% market position. At 50% down, its worthy of adding another 25% increase in market exposure at 75%, I am all in.

Given I own gold, and have sold most stocks a long time ago for valuation and earnings growth and market breadth issues, I have plenty of cash waiting, and one very interesting point in history:

The roaring 20's followed the 1918 Spanish flu, in combination with the technology advancement of electrification, so remember to sell high, you must not be afraid of paying taxes, and to buy low, you must not be afraid of further downside, but the future is always uncertain, sometimes more so than other times.

sportsguy
  #60  
Old 02-28-2020, 05:13 AM
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If this wakes voters to reality, then I consider it god sent.
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