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-   Investment Talk (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/investment-talk-158/)
-   -   Summarization of current investment landscape. . . (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/investment-talk-158/summarization-current-investment-landscape-343536/)

spinner1001 08-20-2023 06:06 AM
From ChatGPT on sportguy’s points:

Economic Uncertainty Amidst Unprecedented

RickyLee 08-20-2023 06:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Boomer (Post 2247564)
Good afternoon to all you money-talkin’ guys,

Here’s my advice to you:

Keep in mind that in actuality the stock market is exactly like that crazy girlfriend you had in high school…..

Remember……

There were days when you could do no wrong.

And there were days when you could do no right.

But you could never figure out in advance if what you were doing was going to turn out to be right or wrong.

That’s it.

Boomer

PS: No! I am NOT that crazy girlfriend you had in high school. ;)
Personally, I always went for The crazy ones. Never a dull moment! I am all in on equities

Andyb 08-20-2023 07:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2247407)
The case for a prolonged bear market in stocks. .
aka perma-bear porn:

1. China real estate in crisis
2. Pandemic excess savings gone
3. Lagging effects of rate hikes starting to bite credit availability - residential housing
4. Jobs creation mainly in low pay service areas
5. CRE distressed
6. New COVID variant making the rounds
7. real interest rates rising to highest in many, many years
8. Size of national debt interest payments requiring huge treasury increase in bond offerings
9. Student loan payments start up again after two+ years of suspension
10. Russian roulette by Putin with agriculture and energy and lives. .

lots of historically first time events which are very hard to predict the outcomes. .
makes market investing less certain of the outcome in the next 5 years for sure

good luck!
I think the one thing that is keeping the market going right now is the spending of the baby boomers. The Boomers for the most part, lived during the best economic times in America and have accumulated a lot of wealth. The Boomers are in the fourth quarter of life and are not holding back in their spending in retirement. When this cycle ends, watch out. No political party is going to solve the problem, we are too far gone.

nn0wheremann 08-20-2023 09:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2247407)
The case for a prolonged bear market in stocks. .
aka perma-bear porn:

1. China real estate in crisis
2. Pandemic excess savings gone
3. Lagging effects of rate hikes starting to bite credit availability - residential housing
4. Jobs creation mainly in low pay service areas
5. CRE distressed
6. New COVID variant making the rounds
7. real interest rates rising to highest in many, many years
8. Size of national debt interest payments requiring huge treasury increase in bond offerings
9. Student loan payments start up again after two+ years of suspension
10. Russian roulette by Putin with agriculture and energy and lives. .

lots of historically first time events which are very hard to predict the outcomes. .
makes market investing less certain of the outcome in the next 5 years for sure

good luck!
Well, the market returns have usually beat my mattress's returns, though it seems for the last 24 months I am down 10% after expenses. Might be time to change horses.

ithos 08-20-2023 09:12 AM
We all know that another major financial dislocation is coming and most likely you will not be given a heads up by watching CNBC.

Remember Cramer?
Bear Stearns is fine. Do not take your money out. If there’s one takeaway, Bear Stearns is not in trouble. I mean, if anything, they’re more likely to be taken over. Don’t move your money from Bear. That’s just being silly. Don’t be silly.

Question is what tell-tale signs should we be looking for? Credit Card delinquencies, 401K borrowing, advance decline line? Are there analysts that have a good record on timing the market? Permabears and Permabulls are really useless.

In hindsight it is always obvious but is it possible to predict it beforehand in time to get out or short the market? The Fed does make it difficult since they have several ways to prop it up.

mntlblok 08-20-2023 09:33 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2247407)

lots of historically first time events which are very hard to predict the outcomes. .
makes market investing less certain of the outcome in the next 5 years for sure
Even when I've accurately assessed the big picture, "certainty" was ultimately wiped away by "timing" issues.

John Maynard Keynes – “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”

dtennent 08-20-2023 09:54 AM
Over the long haul, I have done very well investing in the stock market. It all depends on how soon you need the money. I will not need to increase my earnings in the next 5 years so I am willing to keep my money in equities (low cost no load mutual funds). It will be hard to predict when the rebound will come but when it comes, it is usually significant. Of course, if I die before the uptick comes, then I will have chosen poorly.

spinner1001 08-20-2023 10:47 AM
And now after a tone of cautious uncertainty, ChatGPT writes on sportsguy’s same points in the tone of Jim Cramer.

(Click link and scroll toward the bottom)

Economic Uncertainty Amidst Unprecedented

spinner1001 08-20-2023 10:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by spinner1001 (Post 2247810)
And now after a tone of cautious uncertainty, ChatGPT writes on sportsguy’s same points in the tone of Jim Cramer.

(Click link and scroll toward the bottom)

Economic Uncertainty Amidst Unprecedented
Thing is depending on one’s bias, they can spin the same economic information in opposite ways.

In my opinion, listen to what Jim Cramer says and do the opposite.

Stu from NYC 08-20-2023 11:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dtennent (Post 2247792)
Of course, if I die before the uptick comes, then I will have chosen poorly.
To paraphase Allan King, if that happens your loved ones will have good reason to be unhappy.

HandyGrandpap 08-20-2023 11:43 AM
A few comments if your considering locking in returns with utilities with stock prices down due to higher rates. Thus possibility of picking up good rates and future growth when rates come back down:
Some ETF's: VPU, XLU, IDU,
Short list of stocks (but many others) ETR, AEP, DUK.
Also look at holding in VPU

rsmurano 08-20-2023 12:52 PM
The famous line 1.5 years ago: even a 12 year old could have seen this downturn coming. I sold out most everything 1/1/2022 and got back into oil fund last year for a few months, money market fund that pays over 5%, got into apple late last year and got out a couple months ago, in a tech index fund, and bought into an AI company. Most of our money is in 5.x% money market.
IMO, we are heading for a crash, just as big as 2007/2008. Consumer debt, China downturn, insolvent banks, only 7 stocks supporting the whole market, federal reserve is clueless, corrupt administration.

Fastskiguy 08-20-2023 07:26 PM
Everybody has been saying a recession is coming "soon". It's like "for sure". It's "obvious". So of course I'm looking to see some upside.

Joe

Stu from NYC 08-20-2023 08:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fastskiguy (Post 2247934)
Everybody has been saying a recession is coming "soon". It's like "for sure". It's "obvious". So of course I'm looking to see some upside.

Joe
One of the best funds I have had for many years is Contrafund. It does the opposite of what the prevailing opinion of the market says will happen.

Boomer 08-20-2023 10:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Andyb (Post 2247723)
I think the one thing that is keeping the market going right now is the spending of the baby boomers. The Boomers for the most part, lived during the best economic times in America and have accumulated a lot of wealth. The Boomers are in the fourth quarter of life and are not holding back in their spending in retirement. When this cycle ends, watch out. No political party is going to solve the problem, we are too far gone.

Fly first class or your kids will.

Boomer


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