Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2248205)

If a super computer could predict the moves, do you really think that you or I would know about it? Do you really think Rennaisance Capital gave away their technological advantage as soon as it was proven? Perspective, there are people and systems, now called robots, which make decisions which humans can't because the robots can manage much more information that the human mind can absorb and then use to decide. . DBD

Ah, the number 1 determinate of equity pricing is revenue growth. . that's your first clue.
Second clue is industry and products. .
Industrial, manufacturing, commercia, retail, consumer: new products, new services, one time
purchase product or repeat buyers over what time span, and how often, and product life
cycle.
Third clue is near monopoly, oligopoly or very regional marketplaces and diverse competition.
Shows up in margin sensitivity, supply chain effectiveness and purchase price sensitivity,
and revenue growth. . .
Fourth clue is interest rate / inflation / fx rates sensitivity,
Fifth clue is debt to equity and Return on Assets ratios. .
Sixth is event risk: how sensitive is the company to customer events, employee events, new product events, political events, geopolitical events, etc. . which is inversely proportional to size

That's a good start to the analysis, and its not easy, but if you get it right, you can make quite nice returns. . DBD

finance guy

Originally Posted by ithos (Post 2248544)

Jim Cramer strikes again.

@jimcramer
UBS says sell Footlocker, if you do this please remember to invite me to your funeral
7:21 AM · Mar 29, 2023·
https://twitter.com/jimcramer/status...644421?lang=en

It was at 40 then now it is at 16.

Originally Posted by Boomer (Post 2248457)

The most recent episode of PBS WealthTrack was an interview with Burton Malkiel who wrote the classic A Random Walk Down Wall Street, 50 years ago. (I think this episode first aired a little over a year ago, but I cannot imagine this guy has changed his mind.)

Sounds like he and Bogle were buddies. It is interesting to hear what happened when Bogle first introduced the index fund.

Malkiel’s book has had several updates, but his basic strategy still holds true — in spite of robots and formulas and ESG investing and all that other stuff that’s out there to talk about now.

I am throwing this info in here because I think some of you might want to see this interview, especially those who really like their index funds.

If you are interested in old-school, simple investing advice, you might want to Google wealthtrack.com and Burton Malkiel and you will find the episode. Besides, an old man with real knowledge and experience is a lot more fun to listen to than a robot.

Boomer

Originally Posted by Robbb (Post 2248495)

So why do monkeys throwing darts against a board beat active money manger's'' over 80% of the time.

Originally Posted by retiredguy123 (Post 2252663)

Smart monkeys with a good aim?

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2247407)

The case for a prolonged bear market in stocks. .
aka perma-bear porn:

1. China real estate in crisis
2. Pandemic excess savings gone
3. Lagging effects of rate hikes starting to bite credit availability - residential housing
4. Jobs creation mainly in low pay service areas
5. CRE distressed
6. New COVID variant making the rounds
7. real interest rates rising to highest in many, many years
8. Size of national debt interest payments requiring huge treasury increase in bond offerings
9. Student loan payments start up again after two+ years of suspension
10. Russian roulette by Putin with agriculture and energy and lives. .

lots of historically first time events which are very hard to predict the outcomes. .
makes market investing less certain of the outcome in the next 5 years for sure

good luck!

Originally Posted by rsmurano (Post 2247851)

The famous line 1.5 years ago: even a 12 year old could have seen this downturn coming. I sold out most everything 1/1/2022 and got back into oil fund last year for a few months, money market fund that pays over 5%, got into apple late last year and got out a couple months ago, in a tech index fund, and bought into an AI company. Most of our money is in 5.x% money market.
IMO, we are heading for a crash, just as big as 2007/2008. Consumer debt, China downturn, insolvent banks, only 7 stocks supporting the whole market, federal reserve is clueless, corrupt administration.

Originally Posted by Stu from NYC (Post 2247951)

One of the best funds I have had for many years is Contrafund. It does the opposite of what the prevailing opinion of the market says will happen.

Originally Posted by jimjamuser (Post 2248466)

Road repair and road construction.

Originally Posted by Robbb (Post 2248495)

So why do monkeys throwing darts against a board beat active money manger's'' over 80% of the time.

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 2253079)

LOL! how much alpha did they generate? how well did they manage the inflows and withdrawals? Were they tax efficient or just plain investors. .

its an amusing comment, but not factual