jimjamuser |
02-01-2022 05:08 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by dewilson58
(Post 2055588)
Please provide supporting data since you are presenting this as fact. :ohdear:
Here are some facts:
In 2016, Charles Schwab analyzed market data going back to 1950 and found that, in general, the third year of the presidency overlapped with the strongest market gains. The S&P 500, a fairly broad index of stocks, exhibited the following average returns in each year of the presidential cycle:
Year after the election: +6.5%
Second-year: +7.0%
Third-year: +16.4%
Fourth-year: +6.6%
Overall, the predictive power of the presidential election cycle theory has been mixed. While average market returns in years one and two have been slightly sluggish overall, the direction of stock prices hasn’t been consistent from one cycle to the next. The bullish trend in year three has proven more reliable, with average gains far exceeding those of other years. What’s more, roughly 90% of all cycles since 1950 experienced a market gain in the year after the midterm elections.
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OK, I will start with.....there are NO ABSOLUTE facts about anything. The closest is mathematics and even that subject changes and has gray areas. So, if there are no facts then a link would be only as good as the expert/opinion of the author of the link. So, basically, I don't memorize links or EVER even TRY to look one up to prove something that I say. Anyway, EVEN if I did take the time to prove it, then at least 1/2 of the posters would poo-poo it and say "no-way that does NOT prove anything because my (meaning their) mind is totally hardened on the subject....
........Nevertheless, I will say that what I posted was to the BEST of my knowledge and memory. It is MORE than just my opinion yet less than a mathematical truth or even a link (that was 100% factual, which would be impossible). 15 years ago I began investing. I have made over 100 purchases and sales of ETFs and individual stocks, probably more. That is probably about average for a TV Lander. I get 90% of ALL of my stock info from the 2 daily Fast $ shows. About 7 years ago I heard the election year theory of market value timing (and note that it is stronger during the 4-year cycle of a Presidential election. I then heard it repeated about 5 years ago, which, to me, was a confirming 2nd time. Incidentally,
there is another interesting market timing and more long-term and EVEN likely to be more controversial to TV Landers - namely, that the stock market, normally, has increased MORE during one party's time in office vs the other. And guess which is which?
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