[Bucco]

Originally Posted by ColdNoMore

As has been proved over and over, 'trickle down' works in actually only one situation...i.e; urination.

Thing is, the deficit and the spending go up no matter the party in power.

Difference, to me, anyway, it appearsit is now not even considered a problem.

Better get out of this fantasy land soon and face facts.

[Bucco]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

Sadly, this thread has gone POLITICAL! Moderator!

I completely and totally disagree.

I see no bias in any post....I see no lies or political positioning in any post, and in fact...a number of posts relate to a two party problem.

Diiscussing our nations deficit, and spending is part and parcel of any financial discussion.

This WILL affect your life and the life of your children and grand children.

It is a problem that requires our elected leaders to recognize it and address it, no matter the political leanings.

I sure hope that anything comfortable isniw not going to be called political, or we are really stifling everyone.

[TheWarriors]

Why is it older people become so darn pessimistic? A Hershey bar used to cost a nickel, guess we should all jump off a cliff now since it’s now a buck. The stock market goes up and down and is proven over time to be a good investment. If you are really worried about the market, the only precious metals you should invest in are brass and lead. Where do you think you’ll spend that gold and silver if chaos ever ensues? Be optimistic, you’ll live happier and I bet longer

[Bucco]

To all you market gurus, what effect will this cause, if any..


"As of Saturday, the US has officially hit the debt ceiling, capping the national debt at just over $22 trillion. And while the deadline to raise the ceiling is still a few months away, analysts are already worried about a fight that could get ugly.

Congress suspended the debt ceiling for a year in February 2018, which allowed the US to rack up new debt until the limit was reimposed on March 2.

While the country can't add to the debt load until the ceiling is either raised or suspended by Congress, the Treasury Department can use its "extraordinary measures" to move funds around and prevent a breach of the ceiling for a few more months."

Debt ceiling hit, Trump, Congress have until fall deadline to raise it - Business Insider

[retiredguy123]

The debt ceiling is a joke. It has never prevented the Government from spending money. Another joke is the Social Security "trust fund". In order to have a trust fund, you need 2 things, trust and funds. Our country doesn't have either one.

[valuemkt]

The original thesis of the post seemed to me to be a discussion of seniors reactions to the December correction. The deficit and other discussions are distractions to that subject. Stocks and Bonds and returns on investment will go up and down regardless of that. If you spend your day worrying about the deficit, you are probably equally paralyzed by global warming, the seas rising and a number of things you have no control over. You are also probably spending nearly 100% of your remaining life hiding in your home, afraid to go out or get blinded by the sun.

Regarding corrections and the impact on nest eggs, retirement savings etc. The general psyche of most people is not sell as the market is rising, for fear of Missing out (FOMO), and then panic sell when there is a correction. Often times, that correction comes at a time when capital is needed, compounding the problem. Historically speaking, stocks have been outstanding investments over the long run. At the same time, we all know that in the long run we're all dead - and statistically retirees are closer to that eventuality than the general population. So, retirees have less time to react, or make up for corrections.

So what to do ? You can elect to hide all your money under a mattress, afraid that banks will fail and markets will eventually crash to the ground. Sounds like the early 1930s to me. Regardless of the size of your nest-egg, portfolio, bank account or whatever you call it, deciding what to do at this stage in your (our) life boils down to one thing. What level of risk can you tolerate to Sleep Well at Night (SWAN) ? If the December (again referring to the subject of the article) made you extremely uncomfortable, then perhaps you need to lower your FOMO and increase your SWAN investments. WARNING: When you do this, you (and your advisor professional - if you have one) WILL NOT achieve stock market returns - don;t be surprised if , when the market goes up 10%, your return is a fraction of that. Likewise, when the market corrects 5, 10 or 20%, your total portfolio value should go down a smaller percentage, or perhaps still show a small positive gain. Thats the FOMO vs SWAN tradeoff.

How can you buffer the two ? Many theories .. but if you do believe that history repeats itself, and in the long run stocks are a good investment, you can consider putting two or three years of needed money into cash and cash equivalents, a couple more years into shorter term investments (eg short maturity bonds etc), and then the rest into equities (eg stocks) that have time to weather the ups and downs that you have no control over. The key is to sleep well, because agonizing over it just accelerates the inevitability of the terminus of your long run.

[Bucco]

Originally Posted by valuemkt

The original thesis of the post seemed to me to be a discussion of seniors reactions to the December correction. The deficit and other discussions are distractions to that subject. Stocks and Bonds and returns on investment will go up and down regardless of that. If you spend your day worrying about the deficit, you are probably equally paralyzed by global warming, the seas rising and a number of things you have no control over. You are also probably spending nearly 100% of your remaining life hiding in your home, afraid to go out or get blinded by the sun.

Regarding corrections and the impact on nest eggs, retirement savings etc. The general psyche of most people is not sell as the market is rising, for fear of Missing out (FOMO), and then panic sell when there is a correction. Often times, that correction comes at a time when capital is needed, compounding the problem. Historically speaking, stocks have been outstanding investments over the long run. At the same time, we all know that in the long run we're all dead - and statistically retirees are closer to that eventuality than the general population. So, retirees have less time to react, or make up for corrections.

So what to do ? You can elect to hide all your money under a mattress, afraid that banks will fail and markets will eventually crash to the ground. Sounds like the early 1930s to me. Regardless of the size of your nest-egg, portfolio, bank account or whatever you call it, deciding what to do at this stage in your (our) life boils down to one thing. What level of risk can you tolerate to Sleep Well at Night (SWAN) ? If the December (again referring to the subject of the article) made you extremely uncomfortable, then perhaps you need to lower your FOMO and increase your SWAN investments. WARNING: When you do this, you (and your advisor professional - if you have one) WILL NOT achieve stock market returns - don;t be surprised if , when the market goes up 10%, your return is a fraction of that. Likewise, when the market corrects 5, 10 or 20%, your total portfolio value should go down a smaller percentage, or perhaps still show a small positive gain. Thats the FOMO vs SWAN tradeoff.

How can you buffer the two ? Many theories .. but if you do believe that history repeats itself, and in the long run stocks are a good investment, you can consider putting two or three years of needed money into cash and cash equivalents, a couple more years into shorter term investments (eg short maturity bonds etc), and then the rest into equities (eg stocks) that have time to weather the ups and downs that you have no control over. The key is to sleep well, because agonizing over it just accelerates the inevitability of the terminus of your long run.

Very well structured post with many good points.

I was one and still am of those who fear our over spending and the deficit (Also concerned about global warming). I know I am supposed to ignore all of this, but...

Anyway, I always learn from a reasoned logical opinion based on facts and not calling names.

Thanks for a great post

By the way, I do not "spend my day" worrying about any of what you alluded to and feel is minor, but I think our deficit and over spending is a threat to national security. The Chairman of the JCS (Mike Mullen) , a few years ago opined that he considered our debt the largest threat to our National Security.

[dewilson58]

Originally Posted by Bucco

To all you market gurus, what effect will this cause, if any..


"As of Saturday, the US has officially hit the debt ceiling, capping the national debt at just over $22 trillion. And while the deadline to raise the ceiling is still a few months away, analysts are already worried about a fight that could get ugly.

Congress suspended the debt ceiling for a year in February 2018, which allowed the US to rack up new debt until the limit was reimposed on March 2.

While the country can't add to the debt load until the ceiling is either raised or suspended by Congress, the Treasury Department can use its "extraordinary measures" to move funds around and prevent a breach of the ceiling for a few more months."

Debt ceiling hit, Trump, Congress have until fall deadline to raise it - Business Insider

The effect: The market will go up and down.

[BK001]

Originally Posted by dewilson58

The effect: The market will go up and down.

So true! I'm a FOMO, my husband is a SWAN. So whatever the market does, one of us will be happy and the other unhappy and vice versa. So I guess you can say we have a balanced portfolio! LOL

[valuemkt]

Originally Posted by BK001

So true! I'm a FOMO, my husband is a SWAN. So whatever the market does, one of us will be happy and the other unhappy and vice versa. So I guess you can say we have a balanced portfolio! LOL

[Bucco]

Please...I am not inviting political discussion, but I am not a financial guru, thus I just do not understand all the positive talk...

Trade deficit at 10 yr high.
Tax cut will add $1.5 trillion to deficit.
Deficit grew 77% in ONE YEAR last year.

How does this convert to a positive outlook, except for those who already have money ?

Hoping my pessimism is wrong and hoping someone can explain why most financial indicators are heading the wrong way, but we still talk as if everything is just fine.

[My Post]

Buy land, A.J. God ain't making anymore of it.

[retiredguy123]

Originally Posted by Bucco

Please...I am not inviting political discussion, but I am not a financial guru, thus I just do not understand all the positive talk...

Trade deficit at 10 yr high.
Tax cut will add $1.5 trillion to deficit.
Deficit grew 77% in ONE YEAR last year.

How does this convert to a positive outlook, except for those who already have money ?

Hoping my pessimism is wrong and hoping someone can explain why most financial indicators are heading the wrong way, but we still talk as if everything is just fine.

You are correct. Anyone who can do math can figure out that the National debt alone is $73,000 per person, with no capability or plans to ever pay it off or deal with it until the country can no longer borrow money.

[manaboutown]

Turning the economy is like turning an aircraft carrier. It does not turn on a dime. I am very, very happy with the direction things are now starting to turn and am looking forward to further prosperity for our great country.

Unemployment has been brought down. New jobs have been created. Better foreign trade deals are ahead. We have been supporting much of the rest of the world, (many of whom are envious and resentful of us and actually hate us for our prosperity) for many years and being screwed by high tariffs on our exports. China, just as an example, has always ignored our intellectual property laws, infringing patents, trademarks and copyrights right and left. Hopefully those days are coming to an end.

[Bucco]

Originally Posted by manaboutown

Turning the economy is like turning an aircraft carrier. It does not turn on a dime. I am very, very happy with the direction things are now starting to turn and am looking forward to further prosperity for our great country.

Unemployment has been brought down. New jobs have been created. Better foreign trade deals are ahead. We have been supporting much of the rest of the world, (many of whom are envious and resentful of us and actually hate us for our prosperity) for many years and being screwed by high tariffs on our exports. China, just as an example, has always ignored our intellectual property laws, infringing patents, trademarks and copyrights right and left. Hopefully those days are coming to an end.

GOOD FOR YOU.....AGAIN....this

Trade deficit at 10 yr high.
Tax cut will add $1.5 trillion to deficit.
Deficit grew 77% in ONE YEAR last year.

Now I come upon this...

"Americans' net worth fell at the highest level since the financial crisis in the fourth quarter of 2018 as sliding stock market prices ate into the household balance sheet.

Net worth dropped to $104.3 trillion as the year came to an end, a decrease of $3.73 trillion, according to figures released Thursday by the Federal Reserve. The fall amounted to a drop of 3.4 percent."

US households see biggest decline in net worth since the financial crisis

I am not market guy at all, and do not understand much, but all of this is government supplied numbers.....something does not make sense to me, but as I say, I am the dummy here.

Hope you are correct and everyone gains but boy, the official news just sounds gray to me. Not black but surely gray