Talk of The Villages Florida
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Talk of The Villages Florida (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/)
-   Investment Talk (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/investment-talk-158/)
-   -   The Villages Home Prices during 2008 Great Recession/ Views on Current Downside Risk (https://www.talkofthevillages.com/forums/investment-talk-158/villages-home-prices-during-2008-great-recession-views-current-downside-risk-348037/)

AZ SLIM 02-27-2024 05:41 AM
Increase in home value beats inflation
 
The ave sale price in 2001 of $156k would be equivalent to about $272k today. I was just curious, so I looked it up. Probaly doesn't help much, but it's a little interesting.

$156,000 in 2001 → 2024 | Inflation Calculator

MikeN 02-27-2024 06:32 AM
We bought in Citrus Grove about a year ago. Now concerned about all the lower priced homes being built just south of us now at a much lower price point. Of course they are much closer together, don’t have screens, fans etc but what do people look for, a lower price or how a house is appointed? Now TV is doing a price drop on them. Am I concerned about our house value, absolutely If something were to happen and we needed to sell I’m thinking we’re going to lose $100K

Sandy and Ed 02-27-2024 06:35 AM
No data just opinion: TV has reached the tipping point.

dewilson58 02-27-2024 06:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Villager2be (Post 2305139)
Hi All,
Maybe it was a slight dip in pricing in TV.
Nothing like the rest of the nation.

More than "price cuts", it was a reversal of extreme price increases of prior years.
The prior three/four years, TV house prices were increasing at a crazy rate.
The reversal just returned pricing to pre-crazy.

Smells like what is going on today.

:shrug:

Sully2023 02-27-2024 06:38 AM
2008 housing
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Villager2be (Post 2305139)
Hi All,

Hoping to get some feedback from those who have been around TV since the 2008/09 Great Recession, I have been getting "pro" feedback that the 08-09 housing crash nationally, and in Florida specifically, essentially had zero impact on the Villages market, that TV was a rare exception and was essentially unscathed, can that possibly be true?

The same source also indicates that I am practically assured that any new home that I buy now will be worth ~$100k more in a year once the neighborhood/area is completed and more mature. As great as that would be, I am not drinking that kool-aid (yet, lol!), especially as it seems the market has been softening a bit over the last year (can it be?).

Given your experience, and how far the market has come, would you even be concerned about downside risk? I am buying as a snowbird owner/resident but also hope to recoup expenses by hosting for the remainder of the year via short term rentals through a property management company. I'd rather not buy at a market peak, I would just rent for now if I thought that was the case.
I looked at living in the villages over five years. I watched the Iris model increase in value over $75k in the course of just one year.

I bought over two years ago. My house can sell more than $150k over what I paid if I decided to sell today. In 2008 the villages offered “furniture packages” for the new home sales. Look at the statistics of home sales over the years. This place sells itself. Who does not want a piece of heaven?

With that said, I would take a close look at the location and model before buying. What’s the worse case, you get a great home you enjoy living in.

nn0wheremann 02-27-2024 07:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Villager2be (Post 2305139)
Hi All,

Hoping to get some feedback from those who have been around TV since the 2008/09 Great Recession, I have been getting "pro" feedback that the 08-09 housing crash nationally, and in Florida specifically, essentially had zero impact on the Villages market, that TV was a rare exception and was essentially unscathed, can that possibly be true?

The same source also indicates that I am practically assured that any new home that I buy now will be worth ~$100k more in a year once the neighborhood/area is completed and more mature. As great as that would be, I am not drinking that kool-aid (yet, lol!), especially as it seems the market has been softening a bit over the last year (can it be?).

Given your experience, and how far the market has come, would you even be concerned about downside risk? I am buying as a snowbird owner/resident but also hope to recoup expenses by hosting for the remainder of the year via short term rentals through a property management company. I'd rather not buy at a market peak, I would just rent for now if I thought that was the case.
The house next to mine was purchased in ‘05, used as a long term rental, and sold in ‘20 at a loss. Price bubbles pop. Caveat Emptor.

Normal 02-27-2024 07:23 AM
Markets go up and down
 
Markets go up and down. You will for sure see further dips everywhere, houses were overpriced and interest rates were crazy low.

Post pandemic brought demand from short supply

Demand rose prices

Glut from effort to generate inventory with high interest are just starting to bring prices back down

IMHO prices should end declines by late summer, maybe early fall. Locally a red flag that is on most radar screens is the lack of sales during peak season. If March continues the same pattern, the market may be a little uglier than originally thought. The Developer has placed a lot of effort into branding Eastport? We shall see? No matter what effort is placed into branding and marketing, the organic part of the economy is still key.

Pat2015 02-27-2024 07:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sully2023 (Post 2305511)
I looked at living in the villages over five years. I watched the Iris model increase in value over $75k in the course of just one year.

I bought over two years ago. My house can sell more than $150k over what I paid if I decided to sell today. In 2008 the villages offered “furniture packages” for the new home sales. Look at the statistics of home sales over the years. This place sells itself. Who does not want a piece of heaven?

With that said, I would take a close look at the location and model before buying. What’s the worse case, you get a great home you enjoy living in.
I sold a house south of 44 last April that I built on a really nice view lot and held for 2 years. I almost doubled my purchase price which was a huge profit. That cash was put into another new build where I think there’s a substantial profit to made on the new house. View lots really help to sell a house here in TV. Good luck to the OP in your decision.

bowlingal 02-27-2024 07:38 AM
real estate will ALWAYS increase. May take a few years , like 2008, but will ALWAYS increase

spinner1001 02-27-2024 07:40 AM
1 Attachment(s)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Villager2be (Post 2305139)
Hi All,

Hoping to get some feedback from those who have been around TV since the 2008/09 Great Recession, I have been getting "pro" feedback that the 08-09 housing crash nationally, and in Florida specifically, essentially had zero impact on the Villages market, that TV was a rare exception and was essentially unscathed, can that possibly be true?

The same source also indicates that I am practically assured that any new home that I buy now will be worth ~$100k more in a year once the neighborhood/area is completed and more mature. As great as that would be, I am not drinking that kool-aid (yet, lol!), especially as it seems the market has been softening a bit over the last year (can it be?).

Given your experience, and how far the market has come, would you even be concerned about downside risk? I am buying as a snowbird owner/resident but also hope to recoup expenses by hosting for the remainder of the year via short term rentals through a property management company. I'd rather not buy at a market peak, I would just rent for now if I thought that was the case.
Comparing the present to the 2007-2009 global financial crisis (GFC) for home prices is not a very good benchmark. At the present, the US economy is doing fairly well. Home prices have declined or been soft because of rising/higher mortgage rates mainly. In the GFC, interest rates were falling and a lot of other things were happening. (If you are really interested in the GFC, you might read: The Global Financial Crisis | Explainer | Education | RBA)

For the present, I believe home prices will be strongly affected by interest rates for home loans. No one knows what interest rates will be in the future. But the days of cheap money (the Fed’s near zero interest rate policy) are likely gone, which means, if I am right, home price appreciation overall will be lower compared to the recent past. For home prices in The Villages, I don’t know. They could be stronger compared to national averages because the local dynamics differ. Regardless, I personally do not believe that home prices in The Villages will collapse but the days of annual 10%+ home price appreciation overall are likely over for now. YMMV.

rsmurano 02-27-2024 08:04 AM
A house is an asset not an investment. You make no money on a house unless you sell it, but the house will cost you thousands a years in taxes, maintenance, fees, and insurance. Investments make me money every day.
I’ll never be a landlord ever again, I make much more money in the stock market, sleep easy at night, and when I want out, it costs me $5 and takes 10 seconds. When 2008 hit, I had friends that had rental property that dropped 50% in value and they couldn’t sell the property, and if they could sell, it cost them 5-6% on top of that.
But, I think the villages is the best place to buy a home and make money in the long run over most other cities I’ve lived in or know. The villages is a bubble where you aren’t going to get the riots/major crime that other places have which is a plus and millions of people are moving here in Florida, so there is demand here

Mrfriendly 02-27-2024 08:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Villager2be (Post 2305139)
Hi All,

Hoping to get some feedback from those who have been around TV since the 2008/09 Great Recession, I have been getting "pro" feedback that the 08-09 housing crash nationally, and in Florida specifically, essentially had zero impact on the Villages market, that TV was a rare exception and was essentially unscathed, can that possibly be true?

The same source also indicates that I am practically assured that any new home that I buy now will be worth ~$100k more in a year once the neighborhood/area is completed and more mature. As great as that would be, I am not drinking that kool-aid (yet, lol!), especially as it seems the market has been softening a bit over the last year (can it be?).

Given your experience, and how far the market has come, would you even be concerned about downside risk? I am buying as a snowbird owner/resident but also hope to recoup expenses by hosting for the remainder of the year via short term rentals through a property management company. I'd rather not buy at a market peak, I would just rent for now if I thought that was the case.
You will sleep better for the two months renting a home. The more you are here the more things make sense re home buying

SouthJerseyGirl 02-27-2024 08:51 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Randall55 (Post 2305187)
It is possible to make more money in investments than real estate. This is true today because interest rates are high and stock market is soaring. When interest rates are low, you should buy real estate.

We sold our home south of 44 for a sizeable profit. We are now renting. Our social security checks cover ALL of our expenses. As an added …bonus, we have no maintenance. Our lives are carefree.
Appwned to buy
Our money is secure and earning high interest. We are waiting what eveto see what happens with real estate in the Villages before we buy. Right now, new home prices are falling and preowned homes are sitting. IMO not a good time to buy a home.
Hmmm…Seems like it’s perfect time to buy right now if prices are down and inventory is sitting around.

What happened to “buy low, sell high?

Normal 02-27-2024 09:11 AM
No where near bottom
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by SouthJerseyGirl (Post 2305580)
Hmmm…Seems like it’s perfect time to buy right now if prices are down and inventory is sitting around.

What happened to “buy low, sell high?
True, but the prices are nowhere near their lows. I would stay off the game board until prices ARE low. The real estate beast moves slow. If you can afford to, sit and wait?

kkingston57 02-27-2024 09:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Villager2be (Post 2305139)
Hi All,

Hoping to get some feedback from those who have been around TV since the 2008/09 Great Recession, I have been getting "pro" feedback that the 08-09 housing crash nationally, and in Florida specifically, essentially had zero impact on the Villages market, that TV was a rare exception and was essentially unscathed, can that possibly be true?

The same source also indicates that I am practically assured that any new home that I buy now will be worth ~$100k more in a year once the neighborhood/area is completed and more mature. As great as that would be, I am not drinking that kool-aid (yet, lol!), especially as it seems the market has been softening a bit over the last year (can it be?).

Given your experience, and how far the market has come, would you even be concerned about downside risk? I am buying as a snowbird owner/resident but also hope to recoup expenses by hosting for the remainder of the year via short term rentals through a property management company. I'd rather not buy at a market peak, I would just rent for now if I thought that was the case.
Like all other places TV homes lost value in 2008 etc but not as bad as other areas of the country including Florida. There are less mortgages in TV than in other areas of the country. When prices started to sky rocket 3 years ago, they did not sky rocket as high as other areas. That old biz line supply and demand does control. There is still a lot of land in Central Florida. Demand should remain good in Central Florida due to fact that people from coastal area of Florida are moving here due to high insurance prices(3-5X more on the coast)


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