COVID19 Predictive Analytics

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Old 03-29-2020, 02:58 PM
CoachKandSportsguy CoachKandSportsguy is offline
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Default COVID19 Predictive Analytics

For those of you who don't understand finance, and I can tell by your comments as I have dealt with it for 30+ years, finance is about risk analysis and predictions in the future. Risk is difficult to quantify, but assume maximum risk is 100% loss, either financially or otherwise (read your life). And the future is always uncertain, sometimes more uncertain than at other times. Currently, the uncertainty is very high and risk is very high. The same concept of risk in finance can be applied to healthcare, and today's world is a perfect similar scenario.

Predictive analytics tries to identify some of the future by looking at past "human" behavior. The following medical web site from the University of Washington, is trying to put all the data into a model to visually calculate the risk in hospital terms. You can select each state, and see their predictive model. The web site model tries to capture this ""human behavior" with state by state restrictions by implementation date.

COVID-19

A key takeaway is the date of maximum hospital beds required, and the maximum available. Florida does have good statistics in that stat! However, this model is not a certainty, and the future is not here yet, so the actual performance will be different, lets hope by not much. The biggest risk to this model is the return to normalcy too soon, and there is a second wave. The peak infections are earlier than the peak deaths, I estimate by 5-10 days. However, the Villages due to its particulars, probably has lagging dates.

Note: this post is for informational purposes only. You are responsible for your own risk profile and behaviors. This post or link does not guarantee any future certainty or results. But together, we can improve the future results.

sportsguy
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risk, future, model, state, finance

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