golfing eagles |
08-12-2021 12:25 PM |
Quote:
Originally Posted by Heyitsrick
(Post 1987948)
Let me say at the outset that I'm fully vaccinated (since Feb). If a booster becomes available and is approved, I'll take it.
That said, I'm still not clear on this "if most people get vaccinated, there won't be any hosts for the virus to feed on" (paraphrasing the person you quoted) mantra. It's become obvious that vaccinated people can become infected from the virus, with the proviso that the symptoms of said infection are markedly less severe than in unvaccinated people.
What's not clear to me is whether vaccinated people who are infected can still pass along the virus to other vaccinated people. IF they can - and it does seem possible they can - where is this notion that the virus will ultimately disappear coming from?
Why do I ask and why do I care? Simple - I don't think people are going to wear masks and socially distance forever. At some point - and that point has to come in the not too distant future - some expert has to say the coast is clear. What "clear" actually means is another question. To me, it will mean that we are collectively at a stage where we're going to take our chances. Life must go on, outside of the bubble.
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Not so fast!
The chances of a vaccinated individual getting COVID are very low. For the original virus it was 0.007% (yes, too good to be true and it probably was, but gives an idea of the probabilities under discussion). With the new mutations, the vaccine is somewhat less protective, looks like 1-2% breakthrough, subject to change.
So now it is simple math. Let's use 1% breakthrough-----so 1 in 100 vaccinated people can get the virus, then they have to be unmasked and close enough to another person for 15 min (less for delta variant). Then, if that person is vaccinated, they have to be the 1 in a hundred that could breakthrough themselves, and so on. So the odds of a vaccinated individual passing COVID to another vaccinated person is well under 1 in 10,000 (0.01%). Increase the breakthrough percentage to 5% and you still get less than 0.25% chance.
That is why this is now essentially a pandemic of the unvaccinated.
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