[Dan9871]

Some of the comments on the Villages Health survey seem to assume that the transition to UHC MA has turned Village Health into a business in trouble and that they will have to accept conventional Medicare/Supplement to be successful.

I don't think that is the case at all and I don't think Villages Health is having a problem getting enough patients now or will in the future.

Lately, due to some health issues, I been going to Villages Health a couple of times a month and it seems that it is busy enough to keep the staff occupied. I don't think the PHP my wife and I are seeing is taking new patients and if you need an appointment right away it won't be with him because his dance card seems full... except if for some reason it is really necessary to see him(happened recently). But it still is no problem to get a same day appointment and even if it isn't with our PCP he sometimes drops in on who ever we are seeing.

So, as a consumer, it seems to me like that are a successful operation. But there are some other things to look at that make that conclusion reasonable.

First of all Villages Health has a product no one else in the area has, a Patient Centered Medical Home. Of course that just a fancy buzz word but from the point of view of my wife and I the system works very well.

But just speculating about some numbers. About 30% of Medicare enrollees nationwide are in an Advantage plan... in Florida it is a higher about 40% (from the Medicare website 2015-07-28 - Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services ). It's reasonable to assume that in the Villages that number is about 35%.

There are around 110,000 Villagers now and, again making an assumption, half or 55,000, are on on Medicare. That means about 22,000 are on some advantage plan. It's reasonable to assume that these enrollees would switch to the UHC MA plan if the liked the services provided by Villages Health.

That leaves another 55,000 enrollees in traditional Medicare. Some of these enrollees can't or won't for various reasons switch to UHC MA but, again, it's pretty reasonable that half of them can and would switch if they liked the services Villages Health provided. That would about 27,000.

That makes a total of Villagers who would be candidates for Villages Health / UHC MA about 47,000.

And none of this takes into account the 30,000 or so Villagers expected to be added in coming years with all the new construction in the southern end of the Villages. And when the Villages expands all the way to Orlando, Hanna bar the door :-)

The Primary Care Physicians in Villages Health are limited to about 1,200 patients... that's one of the reasons appointments happen on time and don't have much of a time length constraint. Most physicians doing fee for service Medicare need to support about 2400 patients to make profit off of traditional Medicare,

There are about 34 Primary Care Physicians in Villages Health so that means if all are "fully loaded" they can handle about 40,000 patients.

40,000 is less than my 47,000 guess as to the number of candidates for Villages Health even with the UHC MA requirement.

Even though this is all guesses and numbers and statistics which don't have to be accepted it still is a reasonable basis to think that Villages Health does now and will have in the future a very successful business providing a high level of health care based on UHC MA.

[JoMar]

There are numerous reasons folks have left The Villages Health System The reasons I hear most frequently are 1) their healthcare is paid for by their employer and is part of their retirement benefit. 2) they have a condition that requires specialized care and they don't want to be restricted (inability to go to Moffet is cited most) 3) they have been with their current provider forever and don't want to change. All very valid and since Health Care is a very personal decision I don't fault anyone doing what is in their best interests, actual or perceived. I agree that even though they took a hit when they made the decision to only take UHC they will recover and do well.

[coach]

Very well written and I think a realistic set of assumptions. I use the UHC Villages advantage plan and have been very pleased. I have used several different specialists and have had no problems.

[Edjkoz]

I am very pleased with the UHC plan and TVHC system

[villages07]

There is also a pool of patients who are under 65 and have insurance plans accepted by VHS. they can participate until 65 then have to go to UHC/MA or leave the system.


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[golfing eagles]

OP, good post!

I'm sure they are doing, and will continue to do just fine. Despite numerous other threads and posts, "Chicken Little, the sky is NOT falling".