Tic Tac Toe
 

Reading this debate and others about Covid, masks, cruises, etc. is like watching a computer playTic Tac Toe and losing repeatedly against itself. War games; the only way to win is not to play. The only difference is that computers aren’t fallible in the game because the rules are simple so there is no chance of doing something stupid; not so much with Covid debates.

We have vaccines that if aren’t the most effective ever created, they stand alone as the best ever. 95% doesn’t mean 5% chance of catching disease, it’s less than .6% after vaccinated immunity.

It’s pointless to argue about passing a disease to someone else that you can’t catch yourself. We have no useful example of that. It’s also pointless to say that masks will be needed to protect the unvaccinated because there will always be unvaccinated people and thus masks in perpetuity.

The likely outcome of the cruise debate (and judgements) will be the same as the one about the squares, outdoor speeches, and spring breaks that ended up cats (Tic Tac Toe lingo) this week. When we relearned that a virus without a body like Covid doesn’t travel well outdoors and dire predictions of widespread death didn’t happen.

Pretty humorous, but no, you still haven't supplied a single source for your original rant that claimed: And I'm fairly sure you didn't bother to either read the articles I posted links to or do your own version of the search that I did.

Oh, I understand. (And, hey, you finally got something right, yourself (see above in red)):a040: There was no cherry picking involved, at least from my end: I provided the first 5 hits from the search I stated. When I first responded to the 'definitive statement' from Tmarkwald that said - - I read through the first dozen or so, all of which concluded that nobody seems to knows for sure.
Ooops, the 'overwhelming majority' seems just a little bit less positive than all that "Period. PERIOD!!!!!" nonsense above. I'm not the one parsing words either: my original question was whether there was any backup to the opinion that Tmarkwald stated. There has been none, merely stridently expressed opinion by yourself, condescension & backtracking about what was supposedly implied when you stated positively that "If you are fully vaccinated you CANNOT get the virus, you CANNOT spread the virus, and you CANNOT infect others. Period. PERIOD!!!!!." And I don't care about the 5% figure that you insist means having no immunity. This is flat out false, I have pointed out already.

Actual bottom line: still a nope.

I feel like I've joined a debating club!

HOWEVER - this seems pretty intersting:

If you get the vaccine but later test positive for COVID-19, that is proof that you did not mount a response to the vaccine.

If the coronavirus vaccine is 95% effective, how will you know if you’re in the other 5%? - cleveland.com

Amazing. I guess you haven't kept up with current events, including my last post. For those that remain hard of hearing, I'll repeat it. THE CDC ANNOUNCED THAT ONLY 0.008% OF THOSE VACCINATED BECAME INFECTED WITH COVID

The debate is OVER. You and the other members of your mutual admiration society LOST, not that you ever had a chance to begin with, it was more like taking candy from a baby.:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

PS: I hope you guys know I was just toying around with you.

Amen and Amen, Could someone tell the CDC this so we can cruise again. I've been on land for 14 months. Enough already.

The 0.008% statement came from the CDC

Where's this so called CDC located. I need to camp out on their front porch until they let me cruise again.

1600 Clifton Rd, Atlanta, GA.

It's essentially on the campus of Emory University, and quite an impressive facility

Maybe what's actually amazing is that you somehow looked 2 days into the future & found this information back on 4/14, when you originally launched your diatribe regarding my question to another user. And, again :ohdear:, your unfounded opinion that "If you are fully vaccinated you CANNOT get the virus, you CANNOT spread the virus, and you CANNOT infect others. Period. PERIOD!!!!!" was never more than that. :blahblahblah: Kind of like the invalid assertion that getting the full vaccine regimen somehow guaranteed total, absolute, perfect, 100% immunity to the lucky 95% of recipients. (A college education is a terrible thing to waste... :sad:) There's actually a lot of good information available on the internet if you know how to search for it.

My guess is that you may well be experienced with taking candy from kids, but you proved nothing here. Actual score: Mutual Admiration Society - 1, Deluded 'expert' - 0. If, I repeat if, the latest numbers regarding infections of the fully vaccinated had been available & presented 2 or 3 days ago (as opposed to the string of "PLEEEEZEE!!!!! ... Period. PERIOD!" junk), I'd have said, "OK, close enough to zero for me. Carry on."

Joking? Oh, heck yeah. Me too...

Sorry, but it was pretty obvious from the type of vaccine, it's mechanism of action and the nature of coronaviruses in general that the outcome would be what it was. The only thing that surprised me was HOW EFFECTIVE the vaccine was in the real world.

As far as your posts, of course you're joking. If you were serious you'd be suffering from advanced dementia

Obvious to you but no recognized authorities? Right... :1rotfl::1rotfl:

Likewise, I knew you couldn't actually believe that drivel you wrote unless your degree came in a box of Cracker Jacks. :icon_wink: The bottom line still is that a vaccinated person CAN infect someone else, even if the odds are against it. (This was the original difference of opinion, if you recall) You threw in the "fully vaccinated" as well as took the imperious position that "you CANNOT get the virus, you CANNOT spread the virus, and you CANNOT infect others. Period. PERIOD!!!!!"

Looking at the numbers you most recently posted from another perspective, and totally disregarding to extent what these 5800 were "infected", that means you have roughly a 1 in 13,000 chance of still getting Covid. Fairly long odds, but nowhere near vanishingly small, I'm sure you'd agree. :ho:

It's easier to snatch a bone back from a Doberman than for you to admit defeat and move on. 0.008%---seriously, you can't be hanging on to that as a chance of getting and spreading COVID.

My neck is getting a workout watching this tennis match...

.0008 is infinitely larger than 0.

There's "no chance"
there's "virtually no chance"
there's "essentially no chance" "barely any chance at all" "nearly impossible" - the only difference between any of these terms, is that "no chance" means "no chance." All the others mean "at least some chance."

.008 is not "no chance." It is "at least some chance." No matter how minute, anything higher than 0 is still - higher than 0.

You too? I expected better from you.:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

The words "hotels.com" flashed through my mind at this.

If we take .008% and multiply that by the population of the US we would get 26,400. That number is pretty close to the number of deaths expected from a typical flu season. But the .008% number is not the rate of deaths after vaccination, it is the rate of infection after vaccination. The rate of deaths is about 1.2% of those infected or 337.

So if everyone in the US was vaccinated but somehow the virus was still circulating then with the numbers recently reported by the CDC, there might be 26,400 breakthrough cases and 337 deaths.

Of course 337 is not zero, but it is less than one half the current daily count, 100 times less than the 35,000 we expect from flu, and almost 2,000 times less than the current count of 560,000. Compared to the 2M to 4M that was projected a year ago, 337 is pretty close to zero.

1 in 13,000 is defeat? Not at all. By that 'logic', one could say that one CANNOT get a blood clot from the J&J vaccine. Period. PERIOD!!!!!, which is more than 70 times more likely, given the last data that I've heard. You prefer to use the percentage number, perhaps because it sounds so much smaller than the rate of incidence. The trouble is, 1/13000 or .008% are both greater than '...CANNOT ... Period. PERIOD!!!!!'. Don't ya' hate it when math & reality come together to smack down your victory dance?

Well, honestly, dock, I'm glad to know that you can take a good-natured ribbing, :icon_wink: but we've worn this discussion out! Let's just agree that you were wrong & move on. :thumbup:

Well, yes, but clearly YOU are the one who is wrong! (You cannot extrapolate group epidemiologic data and apply it to a few individuals)

Heading to my boat today for a little cruise on the beautiful Chesapeake Bay. Drinks included.

Working at 6 or more decimal places one can make a case for/against/about anything.

An obvious percentage risk tolerance/acceptance is that of being killed or maimed in an auto accident.....every time one gets in the car.....and this one is in very large whole numbers

Introduction - Injury Facts

The old "I know you are, but what am I?" defense, eh? Well, everyone knows there's no counter to that!! :bowdown: :a20:

"Let's just agree that you were wrong & move on. :thumbup:"

That could be difficult, when someone is prone to deal in absolutes such as -

"BTW, ever notice that when someone is driving 50 in the far left lane of an interstate, or making a parking turn, or sleeping at a green light they are ALWAYS driving a Prius???"

Well!
That was interesting.
Off to de-flea the daughters cat.
Definitely a bigger than 5% chance I am going to get savaged.
Give me vaccinated Covid odds any day!

Not really.

It was more like someone sitting in a concert hall waiting for an encore 3 hours after the lights went out and the janitor went home. The show is over, there's no more music, there was never going to be any more, but yet there they sit, completely baffled that their favorite song was a flop.:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

PS. Always a Prius was a hyperbole, but I feel safe in stating that it is a Prius more often than the percentage of Priuses on the road.

This whole tennis match I found quite amusing.

People that repeat the "you can still give it if you're vaccinated" simply don't understand how immunity works on a cellular level. I would also go further as to say that even among the 5% there is _SOME_ immune response. It's a spectrum, not binary.

Using the .008 number, which strikes me as about right and adding in the chance of dying, you're starting to get out into the Six Sigma area. For people who don't understand what 6 deviations from the mean, means, this is that flat area of a bell curve, way, way out at the end.

The airline industry safety profile is at about six sigma, at least major carriers in western countries anyway. People have no problem getting on airplanes every day, but sure, some still do crash.

It reminds me of the scene from Dumb and Dumber.


LLOYD (CONT.)
I'm gonna ask you something flat out
and I want you to answer me honestly:
What do you think the chances are of
a girl like you and a guy like me
ending up together?

Mary is obviously thrown by this question.

MARY
Lloyd, that's difficult to say. I
mean we hardly --

LLOYD
--I asked you to be honest, Mary.

MARY
But Lloyd, I really can't --

LLOYD
--Come on, give it to me straight. I
drove a long way to see you, the
least you can do is level with me.
What are my chances?

MARY
Not good.

BEAT

LLOYD
You mean not good, like one out of a
hundred?

MARY
I'd say more like one out of a
million.

BEAT

LLOYD
(Duh)
So you're telling me there's a
chance?

I can not count how many different opinions I have seen regarding going vs not going on this forum. Logical minds need to come to an agreement, including De Santis.

He wants to re open cruise ships and in the same breath he wants to tell private businesses that they can not mandate customers to be all vaccinated. I do feel that I would feel safe on a ship where every person is vaccinated and masks are optional.

HA HA HA - you stole my thunder! I was looking for the film script to post the VERY SAME THING! HA HA - great analogy. Bravo!

Every time I read "but there's still a chance" that quote fired off in my head. lol.

I was just going to post the .gif of it, but considering the audience here at TOTV, I figured the entire script dialog would put it into context a little better.

As to chances, even among those that get the disease 2 weeks post second shot, I'm willing to bet that the amount of viral shedding from those people is significantly less than an unvaxxed person. It is almost impossible not to have some immune reaction to a vaccine. If your immune system is trashed, you're not long for this Earth. Which means a vaccinated person next to an unvaccinated person, both showing identical symptoms, the vaxxer sheds less because the immune system is attenuating shed. I.E. Vaxxed = less contagious even if they are sick. This is all a spectrum though, extremes exist for sure but they aren't the nominal cases as far as shed goes.