Highest number of listings in over two years and growing...
 

I have been interested in TV for several years and have been keeping a tally of available homes on a weekly basis for more than two years. I know my life is exciting and I need a better hobby. Currently as of 1-12-24 homes available for sale have reached a higher level than I have ever recorded and is growing quickly. Zillow 443 total listings/VLS preowned 492/VLS new 445.

The point being?

Good time to buy?

either trying to time the market, works for pricing but stuck with the current inventory available at that time.

or

wants to buy but can't pull the trigger,

(friends of ours did the same and took them 5 years to buy their house)

Doesnt that make sense? As the Villages builds more and more homes, the percentage of homes for sale may be relatively static, but the actual number would increase.

If there was a 1% number of homes for sale out of 1000, say, 2 years ago (or 10 homes on the market)
and another 2000 homes were built in 2 years, then 1% of 3000 is 30.....

I admit I am too lazy to look up the numbers, just shooting from the hip

Spoken by a young man. You young guys are always comparing yourselves to others.

Us old guys are just happy to be alive and we intend to enjoy each day.

I asked my wife of 52 years if she had any new year's resolutions and she said, "Try to be a nicer person." I feel the same way. I was a real a-hole a few times last year and I really intend to be better in 2014.

Craig, your hobby is fine. Enjoy being who you are.

Do you know what it was in late 2019 (pre-covid)?

Always a good resolution, sometimes needs a monthly reminder
:duck:

You missed a decade. I do that all of the time, myself.
I think not being an a-hole is an excellent resolution, and I am endeavoring to that high ideal as well.

You should be able to find something that suits you among all of those choices.

Like you, I kept a close eye on the TV real estate market for many (like 13) years before pulling the trigger. I was working up in NY State and the time was not right for me until a few years ago, post-retirement.

An interesting thing I found was that while the number of homes listed seems like a crazy high number, we scratched off about 70% right away because we had a specific idea of where we wanted to be, which for us was south of LSL, north of 466A, and not too far from the Odell Circle-Bailey Trail loop. Then we removed all of the villas, because we didn't want a villa. I wanted a golf cart garage (which I didn't get but I did get an expanded garage which covers my needs), then I wanted a floor plan with the guest suite separated from my bedroom, and it had to be over a certain square footage, and under a certain number of dollars....and after all my wants and don't wants, the inventory was not that big, so....

If you are really really interested in TV, now may be the time to make a jump, and find a place that adequately meets your criteria.

Since this is your dedicated hobby, over the last few years, your stats have reach the highest level, in January 2024. So what is the monthly percentage from last quarter of 2023 to January 2024.

Did the percentage grow each month in that percentage, making the statistics higher for January? Or did January increase greatly from the last quarter months.

Wouldn’t the new on the market be consistent as builds are released, was there a plateau on new vs preowned.

Are the new unsold homes in a certain areas, that seemingly are making new buyer take pause.

When Richmond East is released, bet there will be10 plus names on the list, village will be sold out in an hour of release. So new builds could just be a stall due to location.

In 2021 & 2022 there was so little new and preowned on the market stats weren’t really available. Our home like many others never hit online statistics since many were sold within days.

With rates still high, our financial guy thinks it will be end of 2024 before housing comes back to normal. But that’s his prediction, and he did tell us that home sales would greatly slow starting in November of 2023. Which it seems they have.

So in addition to your regular stats separate out new build by village, for comparison to see what is sitting or selling. That would give you a better idea on market for new homes.

Inventory
 

Inventory is trending up across the state. Perhaps the lull or peak buying time will be July or August? Analyst’s predictions are all over the place after that. For sure, now isn’t the time to buy. Prices are dropping in almost every market, not just here.

I have driven through Dabney and I have driven by Eastport. If there was no rush to buy, I would think most people would much prefer Eastport - a new town square with tons of golf courses and it appears that there will be a fair amount of commercial space. All of this should be within a 15 minute drive by golf cart for the new Villages being built in Eastport. Dabney would be a tough sell - unless the prices are significantly lowered to compensate for location, location, and location.

I expect that millions of people living up north are going to consider moving to Florida after this weekend! YIKES!

http://hp2.wright-weather.com/icons/us_chill.gif

“Good time to buy”? Since 2006 I have “watched” the real estate market in The Villages. Many many houses are over priced IMHO. Even the Developer is discounting some new homes south of 44. Inventory of new homes is high in part because of the lack of commercial (supermarket, restaurants, etc.) south of 44 and high interest rates. Those that have a mortgage with a low rate but would like to move up into a “pricey” new or resale home won’t pull the trigger until interest rates move lower. No, I would wait to buy until the second or third quarter of 2024 unless I had cash and had to have a home immediately.