Housing Markets Crushed
 

These are the 15 housing markets that will get crushed the hardest by 2012.

Check out all the Florida cities.

http://www.businessinsider.com/real-...e-most-2010-11

Property Taxes should go down too!


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Our home value in Delaware has dropped $100k in the last 18 month. As a want-to-be, it makes it hard to find a comparable in The Villages!

Nothing new here. Pricing before was out of control. Trying to sell my house now. Have to be ready to deal with today's market in order to sell. Do I like it no. But it is what it is.

Wow, a realistic person. Same boat here.

Nine out of fifteen are in Florida. I guess that demonstrates the amazing exception of the Villages?

Yes TV seems to be world's apart from reality. But I do think TV prices adjusted accordingly to keep the sales flowing. Prices are much lower, 'apples' to 'apples' than 2007.

Thanks for reminding me Russ, being here for my 4th winter I had almost forgot :laugh:

Same situation in NW Ohio. Took me a year to learn that the market determines the selling price of my house, not what I paid for it or what I think it is worth. Had to make some hard decisions, but my often empty home in the villages is calling to me.

An extra 4 winters in TV makes up for any monetary loss!

If one can work it out, it's definitely a great time to buy, not only in TV and Fl, but elsewhere around the country.

Pretty much the same thing we went through in order to sell our prior "permanent" home in central OH. Took us a year of a continuum of price reductions to get the asking price to a point where we found a solid buyer. The buyers are out there - but unfortunately, price seems to be THE driving factor in today's market. For us, it was painful and a bit tough to not be bitter about the whole thing. But we sucked it up and got on with things. Such is life sometimes!

As Paul Sr. said in an American Chopper episode a few years back: "What was, was and what is, is is, and this what is....is what's happening right now!" :)

Bill

Over the years, we have had success with real estate transactions, but the two that brought us perhaps the most happiness and peace of mind, were the ones we lost money. It was worth something to get on with our lives.

Our friends in Bonita Springs (South Florida) have been trying to sell their home for years, and have been chasing the market down the whole time. In the beginning, the price was too high. Waaay tooo high. They are still behind.

Home prices have come back a little bit over the past year but not much. I was extremely blessed to sell my house in Washington, DC area (Maryland) in 8 days last year at the asking price.

One person posted their home had declined in value by $100K. That probably was at the peak of the bubble and hopefully, not what they paid for it. Hopefully, they can sell at today's prices and still make money over what they paid for the house.

You have to ask yourself if it is worth holding out for a higher price or moving to this slice of Heaven we call The Villages? I say it is wiser to sell for what you can and move here. Of course, there are still markets where it is impossible to sell at any price.

TV housing market has been severely dented but not crushed.
Look at new home sales. They have taken a hit even in TV but they continue.
There are no streets full of unfinished homes. There are no homes with the copper wiring ripped out. No reasonable person worries that the pools will be closed this winter because the developer can't pay the bills. All of these things have happened and continue to happen at other developments in FL and around the country.
I believe that TV will recover faster then the rest of the country as the boomers flee the North to retire in TV.

PS I don't work for the developer and don't sell real estate.
I work for a large defense contractor that just had a small layoff and wasn't included. :swear::swear:

I agree with you .. there is a lot of "pent-up" demand from people who own properties and want to sell before they move to TV. I think when the sluggish market improves, there will be a real jump in TV prices.

I'm getting my house ready to put on the market in January (and move to TV ASAP). It's really hard to not think with my heart when I consider what the selling price should be. I have to keep telling myself that 27 years of memories are not worth anything to anyone but me. I think 'staging' the house and removing personal items will help - it will no longer be my house. And, hopefully I'll be headed south soon.

As a former real estate broker, I can confirm that "depersonalizing" your home is the right thing to do. Purchasers love neutral surroundings. Improvements to bathrooms and kitchens really pay off. You are smart to know that you can't think with your heart when pricing your home. The biggest mistake that owners make is overpricing their home, and then it gets stale, and eventually sells for less than if it had been priced correctly initially.

Your home should invite prospective purchasers in .. it should sound good (quiet music playing in the background), it should smell good (cinnamon on a low boil on the stove), and it should look good (open all the blinds and drapes, and turn on the overhead lights so your house will be bright and cheery). Unless you live next door to a funeral home, then you should keep those blinds closed.

Good luck with your sale. You'll be so happy with your decision to move to TV.

I track this market in TV very close, and also keep my eye on the market up North. I have responded to many posts on here on this topic and have usually been very positive. Starting in mid 2009 until about March or April 2010 the market was moving up. Somewhere between 6% and 8%. However in May of 2010 it started to reverse and has dropped about 6% over the past 6 months. There is nothing in the near term that will cause it to change, and in fact many things that will cause it to continue down. Probably for the next 12 to 24 months.

I would still be a buyer in this market as you now have the chance to select a more desirable home with those things you want. Mortgage rates are excellent and the selection of properties will never be better. Yes it may drop another 8% to 10%, but trying to catch the exact bottom or top of any market is a fools game.

At some point in the future we will see inflation. In fact I personally believe we will see hyper inflation. Sometime during the tail end of that cycle it will hit housing prices and they will go up dramatically. Probably 36 to 48 months from now. The job market has to improve first for that to happen.

In fact I will make what some will think is a very wild predication. During the next 12 months we will see a 5% to 10% decline in home prices from where they are today and within 5 years you will see homes about 50% to 80% higher then today. My amount of swings may be off a little bit, but you can take the direction of change to the bank.

L2 - very good analysis IMHO.

I do think the longer end (with higher home prices) will be closer to 8-9 years out.

Increasingly there are signs pointing to a double dip so I think the 10% drop over the next year is right on.

Something to consider. With the large drops in home prices all over Florida (except TV of course) the taxable base is ever shrinking for the local governments. That will mean increases in the RPT rates to maintain the income for the tax users. If that happens, the tax you pay on your Villages property is sure to go up based on a higher tax rate. I believe local prices outside the bubble have also dropped significantly. What do you think?

Housing Markets Crushed
 

I think you are right l2ridehd. There seems to be a divergent between new homes and resales. I think new homes sales have probably bottomed in the Villages. They don't seem to be discounted as heavily as before. Perhaps this is a leveling. Outside the Villages they may still be declining.

Resales prices in the Villages, on the other hand seem to going down even though they represent a better value in my opinion.

As for inflation, I don"t think the government can allow a high inflation rate. They have already proven they can maintain low inflation through low interest rates. How long this can go on has yet to be shown. But I believe the alternative is unacceptable to the gov. or any political party. We probably have to muddle through poor economic growth for years to come. My point is prices are unlikely to raise any time soon.

Inflation will happen. It is a fright train headed down the track at break neck speed and it will happen. It is not possible to print money at a rate 3 times GDP and not have it. I am not trying to move this discussion to political, there is enough blame everywhere, only trying to state what has happened recently that all of us need to understand to survive. If inflation does not happen the US will go bankrupt and default on it's debt. I agree that no one wants it but the alternatives are worse. We have spent money like drunken sailors over the past two years (again not going to say is was or was not required, TARP 1 & 2, National Health Care, QE2, 100,000 additional government jobs are all spending increases) and no amount of tax increases or spending cuts can solve the problem which would only cause the downturn in the economy to get worse. The only possible solution is to inflate the currency so the borrowed money to pay for the above can be paid back with money that is worth less. This will cause higher interest rates, a significant increase in inflation and higher unemployment.

The only real question is when. Those of us that figure that out will survive well, those that don't will have a standard of living that will drop by a huge amount. All of us are old enough to remember the 70's. My new car in 1969 cost me $3300, my new one in 1977 cost me $9400. Almost the same car. I had a job move in 1979 and the new home interest rate was 17% That home cost me $63000. Moved again in 1983, home was $175000 and again in 1985 and the home was $265000. The homes were a little different, but not all that much. The only difference today is the magnitude of the issue.

And when we finally move out of that cycle, when interest rates drop back down from double digit, unemployment returns to under 6%, and inflation is back under control, housing prices will rise from current pricing to 50% to 80% from where they are today. Again, the only real question is timing. When will this happen.

New home prices on TV web site, all have a discounted price. In August there was 72 foreclosure in TV ( 2 of thoses were in Bridgepoert @LS). Harry Dent(an economist who predicted the stockmarket crash) believes home prices are going back to 1998-2000 prices. A mortgage is not recomended when you are on a "fixed" income. You have to wonder, how long TV home prices can remain ahead of the rest of the country.

Exactly. I wonder how many people are in denial. The bubble has burst and may never return in our lifetimes. If this sounds morbid, take a look at our deficit.

Is it really 72?

72 (if accurate) represents = 2/10 of 1% of all TV homes (I'm estimating around 35K homes currently, it's probably closer to 40K). That's not bad based on FLA real estate figures.

One thing I've learned in life - never say 'not again in my lifetime' when it comes to economics. Everything, and I mean everything, is cyclical in some manner. It's form may change but everything repeats in self in some fashion.

Russ, you are so right about the unpredicability of economic issues. I remember in 1983 when I was marketing annuities, we had to show the guaranteed interest of 4% and an intermediate rate (usually 8%) on projections - the current rate at the time was 11-12%. I had customers laugh when I pointed out the intermediate rate of growth, saying "we"ll never see single digit interest rates again in my lifetime". In the late 90s I heard many people, including so-called experts, who were confident that the market would grow by at least 12-15% per year on average for the forseeable future! I remember someone at a conference several years ago stated that "economists have successfully predicted 20 out of the last 2 recessions". Things that are totally unforseen will continue to happen if you live long enough.

When I bought my second home in 1989 my older friend said, "you'll never get a rate again like we did. 7% for 30 years. They will never go below that in your lifetime". We'll my rate for my TV home that I'm buying this month, 21 years later, is 4.5% so you never know!

Depends on how you look at it. It may be "not bad" for the general population, but it seems a little high for a "retirement community" As far as a "lifetime" is concerned, I was basing it on our "retired people" lifetime, not the general population.:)

Me too !
 

Same with my southern Oregon home :cus:

Year to year home prices in our area, Lake County CA, down 18% from same time last year! State of California was up about 2%; Florida down 10%, Orlando down 30%, US down 4%


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I agree that there will almost certainly be a double dip, but I am a little more pessimistic about the size of the drop - 20-30% from current levels - and the rate of recovery - bumping along the bottom for up to five years

On a brighter note, prices will eventually attain and exceed their previous highs, and we'll be looking back at the next few years as a fine buying opportunity

Not sure where we'll be looking from, though :-)

Foreclosure are down to 35 in Nov.
 

We first visited TV in 2005. The houses were selling so fast you were put on a waiting list. Everyone told us to buy now, because it was only going higher! Since I was not retired yet, I said no thank you. The houses we were looking at, are now 20-50k less today. Because of an elderly parent who refuses to move, we can not move to TV. TV may not be perfect, but is the best we have found! We will get there some day, but we will sell our home in De first and buy what we can afford in TV, without a mortage. IMHO, buy when you are ready to move. No one knows where the real estate market is going.

I want to get in this discussion so bad. I love real estate talk. But for now, I can't stay around long.

One comment though -- I do not think we are at the bottom. The next wave of foreclosures, or needing to sell fast, is going to happen to people who had made good decisions and have fixed rate mortgages, but now they have lost their jobs. Tragic things are happening out there and some of them to people in their 50's who thought they were doing things right.

("BOOMER! GET UP OFF YOUR BEHIND! THERE'S COMPANY 'ROUND THE BEND!")

So anyway, this real estate thing is still a vile mess that continues to grow arms and legs. If you browse through the Investment Forum here, you will see other threads with this discussion, some a couple of years old, and yet, here we are...second verse same as the first......

("BOOMER! SHUT UP! AND STEP AWAY FROM THAT COMPUTER! NOW!")

So anyway, TTYL.

Boomer (Oh, btw, that was not Mr. Boomer yelling at me. He does not yell at me. That was me yelling at me.)

Not necessarily. Unlike other communities, TV is unique in the sense that its residents put virtually no burden on the largest component of taxes - the school system. Hence for every new home purchased in TV the tax base grows, but the cost burden is only modestly increased. The effect of this can be seen in this year's taxes. Even though property values have decreased in Sumter County as a whole, the continued growth of TV and its size relative to that of the entire county has resulted in the tax rate for the whole county to actually go down. This trend should continue as TV continues to grow.

NJBlue,

Agree with you on most points. The effect on RPT rates would depend on the percentage TV is of the county tax base of the three counties involved. Sumter County would be the least affected.

There is not as much new news about the housing market in the papers as before. I don't know if this is a good or bad thing. The focus of those selling newspaper has shifted - they pretty much played the housing crisis to death! Now they are on to the next news story to sell papers. But to stay on topic,

I think the housing market has stabilized for the moment. Having read through and contributed to this post, I see there are a lot of differing opinions, valid on both sides (up vs down), but on the whole, the posts seem to point to most posters favoring housing will continue to trend lower. The few real estate people I have talked to say the inventory of unsold homes is decreasing indicating the trend will start to point up. I have also been told there are fewer foreclosures on the market and the general sense of "urgency" has passed, especially for foreclosures in The Villages. Perhaps we are just bouncing along the bottom or are we in for more bad news? The final test, are prices of sold homes higher or lower than last year at this time or are we seeing a turn around?? That is the tough one. The 64,000 dollar question. Does anyone have recent stats??

So what do you think Boomer or l2ridehd??

Foreclosures
 

Truli.com shows 38 foreclosures in TV. ( 1 in Bridgeport @ LS ). We have friends that have had their house on the market for 6 months. They have many lookers but no offers. They just lowered the price again. The house is very nice, but a couple of realtors have told them the houses north of CR466 are not selling very well.

I was only able to find three recent in The Villages.Truli probably has old data. There were several that were sold. It remains to be seen what happens this spring. The developer is still selling new homes at an impressive clip.

The real estate market is very much a function of pockets. And the pockets of good and bad seem to be small. I still reside in Northern VA and see some areas where homes sell in days and others take many months. TV is certainly a pocket with it's local impacts. Lots of homes being sold as baby boomers reach the magic retirement age. A lot has to do with how easy it is for them to sell the home where they live if that is part of the plan. And even more with their willingness to accept the current home value vs a false expectation based on 2005 values.

One thing that seems to be having a major impact on selling is reality pricing. A year or so ago, people were still pricing their home at the higher end and not accepting the fact there had been a significant correction to the housing bubble. Then they would chase the market down until they were able to sell. One to two years on the market has now become 6 to 12 months. Or they could never sell because they were upside down on the value. More and more homes are being listed and sold with a price that reflects the market today. People realize they cannot get the price they could have got just a few years past. More and more sellers are placing their home on the market at a market reality price. This is a very good indication that the market has reached the bottom. Yes there are still a lot more foreclosures to impact the available inventory so the backlog will take longer to dissipate. However it is less likely to have a negative impact on pricing then the first wave did because of the more realistic pricing of the non foreclosure homes.

TV market is a pocket of it's own making and home pricing is more a reflection of the margin the developer is willing to accept then any other factor. My bet is they will take as much margin as possible and therefor the market has already reached any bottom that will happen. They control that with build volume more then anything. And with the rest of the country being more acceptable of the reality of a depressed market, TV volume will increase, not drop. Remember one really key ingredient to TV market. The first of the baby boomers are reaching 65 this year at a rate of 10,000 plus every month. This is a somewhat new factor that will drive TV prices up, not down. Many of those people who had a plan to retire at 60 or 62 made a decision to wait until 65 to retire with the hope of an improvement in the market and an ability to further re-build there retirement nest egg. That "wait to retire" window is now reaching a point of reality just as the willingness to accept the lower home pricing reality coincide. This will have a positive impact on TV market. Less on the rest of the country, but will impact TV.