Is now REALLY the time to buy
 

Wife and I were in FL on business, and took a day-trip to The Villages.
A Salesman showed us homes, and we decided that a Courtyard Villa, 3 BR, frame&vinyl (BONITA) is ideal for us.
The salesman says that NOW is the time to buy, prices may not get lower, and will surely be much higher in 4 years (buildout).
He also suggested we buy now and go with their rental plan until we are both retired. No high pressure sales tactics were involved, just a relaxed conversation with (of course) an invitation to take advantage of the life style preview. Maybe next spring.
I would appreciate any input from this valuable forum.:bowdown:

Hi Kayaker,

Well, you asked for opinions so that's all this is, of course. But keep in mind, that the other "opinion" -- from a TV sales rep -- is also just that.

Or is it?

What else is a sales rep going to say?

And while that might have looked like a fairly substantiated opinion to have a few years back, I think that for the immediate future, all bets are off. I am afraid that this economic fiasco has just started to bare its fangs. And, like all of us, I sure hope its run is at least a short one. But I also do not believe that anybody really knows.

A TV sales rep's motivation is from a completely different angle than yours. I know you know that and you are factoring it in for what it's worth in the equation as you do your own math.

When I make a financial decision, I base it upon what I call "the cost of sleep."

I am a "take my time and gather information" type, too. I can make decisions, but not without my ducks all lined up in a row.

When you really crunch your own numbers to find your own personal cost of sleep, you will have your answer.

You will know how long you would be able to get some sleep while owning two homes and all the associated expenses of doing so. You will know if you want to be a landlord for awhile. And you will know how much you want to do all this right now or if you want to give it some more time and maybe rent for a month or so, here and there, along the way.

So my advice (since you asked) is to just take your time and think about the cost of sleep. That's how it works for me anyway. But I also recognize that individual sleep costs will vary.

Boomer

Every week I see at least one new home and one used home that would fit my lifestyle and the price is the same or lower than the previous 'fit' homes. This gives me reason to believe that the end is not over in terms of price and availability.

Would I buy today? YES if I was moving down today. Although I might still rent for a year in the hopes that I find something better for the same price.

Am I concerned that if i can't get there for 3 years that I'll be able to find something that I like and can afford? NO

But what the heck to I know? I've lost over 100K in my 401(k) in the past 4 months! So I'm no financial genius.

If the name of the game is to get the LOWEST price possible, nobody has access to that crystal ball.

If what you want and can afford is a place which gives you a retreat whenever you want AND will be your retirement home, then that's another story.

My spouse and I bought last year (July) and have been 'commuting' between DC and TV since, with the end of the commute to occur April 2009. The carrying costs haven't been that bad, and the mental freedom is priceless.

So, it all depends on personal choice of how you spend discretionary income, where you would like to be when not fulfilling responsibilities, and if having a retreat from the rat race has value....

It sounds like you met with a sales agent regarding NEW construction, whose prices have indeed dropped because of much diminished sales. We heard recently that TV laid off a huge number of planning and design personnel because of this. But with new construction you have to factor in the bond on new construction, which is commensurately higher than on existing homes, and the fact that you're starting with a basic slate, so to speak, meaning you pay for whatever you want to add to the house.

We bought a resale a year ago; prices on resales, as you can imagine, can be MUCH MORE FLEXIBLE than on new construction. We have followed home prices and have yet to find a price--new or resale--that matches what we bought a year ago (bond already paid and various options, some costly, already installed). Sometimes sellers are under no pressure, while at other times, for different reasons, they are highly motivated (as was our case). I agree about Boomer's 'sleep' factors, but it would seem to me that if you found a resale of the Bonita you're interested in that is an extraordinarily good buy AND your finances allow you to buy it, it's something you might want to consider. But only you can determine that....

Yes, the Bonita was a new home, on Juneberry Ave in (I think) Poinciana Village. The price at under $170K seemed good, and the cheapest used Bonita was $187.5K (not furnished, bond not paid), located in Liberty Park.
It may be that owners are not willing to sell their pre-owned homes for a loss, assuming that new home prices have dropped. But that is only my humble opinion.
I agree with Boomer's sleep factor, it something is going to disrupt my sleep, it is probably not worth doing.
The salesman also noted that renting a home would bring in something between $7K to $10K in net yearly income.
Lots to think about.

A big measuring stick is the time you've spent in TV. If it's only that day trip, I'll bet my socks that within a week of buying that beautiful Bonita you'll find a better home or deal right in your own neighborhood. The advice to "take your time" is huge. Things are not going to change that dramatically in the short term. TV is such a beautiful, exciting place that your vision doesn't really clear until you've spent weeks here.

It's not that you're going to be unhappy with the Bonita, or that you might have saved a little money by catching just the right place at the right moment. There are thousands here who bought after a very short visit and are happy as clams. But by asking if this is the Right Time, you seem like the more deliberate type who needs to look at all sides of the decision very carefully.

So come on back, immerse yourself and talk to lots of folks about where they live and why they like it. I live in a courtyard villa on Nancy Lopez that is miles from where you are looking. It is the most fabulous mid-priced home in all of TV! It's my paradise on earth.

Timing the real estate market is similar to timing the stock market. Hard to catch it at the bottom.

Village agents have been saying for years that "prices for new homes may not get lower". Obviously it is beyond their control and they're giving you the party line.

We bought 1 1/2 years ago and like Sidney Lanier, managed to find a real bargain with the bond paid.

In spite of the fact that prices have been decreasing, it is the best decision we've ever made. How can you put a price on a year in Paradise? None of us are getting any younger.

Amen!

Really? I find that very hard to believe. I'd sure double check those numbers if I were you. You could probably bring in $7-10K gross, but not net.

Have you checked the county appraisers web site? Many people bought at the top of the market, so are trying to sell for more than those that bought prior to the top.

To KayakerNC
I will be closing on a Bonita next week on Hortensia Pl which runs into Juneberry Ave. in the Village of ST Charles. I will be be a full time resident. Thats different than your situation. As far as pricing goes. If the market is down in The Villages and you buy at good price you will more than likly get less money on your current home. If the market goes up it's up in both places. So it's all relative. Good luck what ever you decide
Hey maybe we'll neighbors

We picked out a lot in July and had a house built for us. The combination of picking out the exact lot (golf course front with minimal threat of broken windows plus proximity to rec centers and shopping) plus a house that met our specifications almost to a T plus an unbelievable price convinces us that we did the right thing.

Yes, there were a few sleepless nights driven by the fact that our house was not yet even on the market and months away from even being ready to put on the market. However, in looking at houses like ours that are on the TV web site for a lot more money than we paid back in July that don't meet all of the location issues that ours does, we still look at each other and say, absolutely we made the right decision. Had we waited 20 minutes, the lot would have been sold to someone else. Would there have been another situation where the stars were so perfectly alligned? Possibly, but I'm glad we did not count on it.

Of course this is easier to say as we await an offer on our house after the third visit by our prospective buyers.

Kayacker/NC,
I'm pretty conservative, so I'd discount the rental income and then say.. can I afford this and sleep at night.

We bought this year, I think the timing is right price wise even though we're part timers for a couple/few years. Stretched the finances a bit, but we'll be alright.

So as mentioned above, there are many other factors, such as how much/often will you be able to use it. I would not, personally, buy based on renting it.
Good luck, come join us when you can...

We have had a very simple and workable plan. We want to trade houses. When we started visiting TV in Aug we could sell our house and with the proceeds, pay off the mortgage, buy our new Designer home, furnish it and pay for the move. A home for a home. As long as TV property prices are reduced by the same amount that our house has dropped we will be there soon. If not, I guess we will need a plan "B"

Watch the rental message
 

I would not bank on the rental thing. TV has just completed (in 60 days) about 200 new homes in close proximity to Sumter Landing that are said to be exclusively for rentals and not just Lifestyle Previews. It makes us wonder what is going to happen to the TV managed owner rental program as I'm sure they will be promoting their own properties first. Nothing official here, but just a heads up with the scuttlebutt that's circulating at the moment.

Captain, good point. I was just going to mention the additional rental units being built. I think those units will really be popular due to location (within walking distance of LSL).

I would guess that TV will offer Village-owned units before they offer other units in The Owner's Rental Program.

Kayaker
capt 1202 is giving you good advise...........its the old story that
if you ain't ready yet, you ain't ready yet...

don't bank on renting your new property . There will be to much competition .and it will be from the villages .....when your ready then re evaluate your situation .........if you can sleep nights , you'll love it here...........

Fumar

I asked this question to my saleslady. Her response:

"We are building those accommodations because our Property Management was down about 300 homes this year--more folks were able to retire early, rather than purchase early and put it in the program. Also, there were fewer who were willing to part with money this past 6 months!! So Property Management is still screaming for homes for this Winter Season. (we are sold out in January, and almost completely booked for February. March has just opened for Reservations.)"

Kayaker,

In October of 2007, when the decline in real estate was starting to get a real footing, a TV sales rep's parting shot to me as we were leaving a model home was, "You will be sorry if you do not buy at this price."

For some reason, that comment rubbed me the wrong way. It struck me as manipulative. Her words, "You will be sorry," actually just plain ticked me off. Maybe that's just me, but I felt like I was being talked down to. While I am sure your rep is much nicer, or at least uses better word choice, the fact remains, their interest is their interest.

I was there to get the lay of land, considering a second home. I was tiptoeing in to see what I thought. I had not even talked about price. I was not even close to that point. And had I been, I still would have not liked that snippy comment.

Enough about all that, the point is......

The rep was trying to create a sense of urgency. That's what some of them do. And urgency worked well for them during the high times. I just never could do urgency.

Now, you may think that this is a little harsh, or maybe a lot harsh, or you may think it does not even make any sense at all. But here's what I would do if I were you......

I would take whatever the TV sales rep is saying completely out of the equation.

After removing the sales pitch, use what you know as fact and work through what you really want and how you know you can make it work. That's it. This is about you and your own personal cost of sleep.

My, my, I seem to be sounding a little bossy tonight. Oh well, just my advice. You asked. And, whoops, I think I already said the same thing somewhere on here a week or two ago. It's just this time, I am using that example of the rep having no idea what she was talking about, other than trying to sell a house by creating that sense of urgency.

Anyway, I really do wish you the best. This thing is so different for everybody.

Oh, and while I am being so bossy, I would like to suggest that you might want to find a good MLS rep and look at some pre-owned homes and if you have not looked at any of TV's pre-owned listings, you might want to do that, too. There are some lovely places with upgrades and much lower, or even fully paid, bonds.

Now, I need to get out of here for awhile. I am getting way too into this being bossy stuff.

Good luck, Kayaker. I hope you will keep us posted. (And I will try to stop being so bossy.)

Boomer Lucy (Advice 5 cents)

There is one more factor to consider. If you can afford the home now, where is a better place to put your money. The potential for real estate to increase 20% in value over the next 3 years is probably better than most investments and it is a highly leveraged investment. And are we at the bottom? Who knows for sure. But if you look at the housing market as a sine wave on an incline up, if you are + or - 10% at the bottom of the curve and interest rates are at an all time low, it is one of the best places for your money.

I would spend at least a week here, look at all different models, new and used, different villages, know what the bond is, and then if you have made a Villages decision, now is a great time to buy. Probably one of the best. The absolute best? You will never know. If you wait for that you will never buy.

is now the time to buy
 

KayakerNC - My hubby & I have visited several yrs in TV and love it but weren't in a position to make our move yet. So this last April we were just in to look (we want the Gardenia). We were about to leave after being pre-approved but I really did not want to rent our new home before we had a chance to live in it. The morning we were leaving we pulled up several Patio Villa to look at that were pre-owned and we bought the 3rd one we saw. Be careful - if you rent through TV - you have to pay 20% of the rent they would have gotten on your place, to TV as well as a cleaning fee each time you go... I visit mine periodically and was not willing to do that. We are going to list ours independently with one of the online websites that rent there. We found that having the villa gives us a place to stay as well as a place to rent and we got it fully furnished - bond paid - for 130K. We can get conservatively 15K yrly for season and a few other months rent. Which will leave us time to come ourselves. Just another side to think about. We will buy our main home when we are closer to living there yrly and may keep this one for rental or family. We too, have 2 other homes to sell - Atlanta and a NC mtn.home too. Our Villa will be listed for the season as soon as I can get it online. Good luck.

Is it time to buy
 

Is it time to buy I bought a ranch 3yrs ago in the village of Del Mar
The same ranch is selling on the next block from me for $40,000 less than i paid IS IT TIME TO BUY

You should have bought 3 1/2 years ago; the Fall and Winter of 05-06 were the peak of the bubble.

(Hard to believe the burst was nearly 3 years ago!)


.

sad story about purchasing now
 

We signed our papers on a new cyv in St. Charles on Nov 23. The discount had just gone from 4% to 4.5%. Two days later the discount went to 5%. We could have saved about $600 had we waited. Who know, it may drop some more. Tough call

Don't Wait too Long
 

During our first visit to the Villages we struck up a conversation with a Villager on the trolley tour bus. He was telling us all about his wonderful life in TV (he had relatives visiting, hence the trolley tour), and we were drooling with envy and said we definitely planned to buy a home in the Villages "someday."

His reply was, "Don't wait too long," which (for some reason) we found incredibly funny. After we went back to Utah "Don't wait too long" became our slogan as in, "Oh boy, do my knees ever hurt today. I think I waited too long!"

Seriously, I don't want to sound like some urgent sales agent, but you can wait a few years for the market to bottom out so you can get the best deal on a house, or you can buy what you can afford today and start enjoying the Villages lifestyle before your knees are shot. It's really not all about the house -- It's about the lifestyle. I'm glad that my knees are still good enough for pickleball and shuffleboard and dancing in the square.
Just my 2 cents.
Judy
(They ought to pay me for this! ;) )

I recommend you read the thread started by Kahuna on walking away from a mortgage. There is a lot info in the responses on the sorry state of the economic future. If you are currently retired and wealthy ... easy answer. If not, my opinion would be to not burden yourself with a second home now. Look in the Daily Sun under rentals... there are a lot of "available due to cancellation". The Villages just built an entire neighborhood of rentals which will, at least, tie up the "lifestyle" market. The last person I'd listen to to make that decision would be the realtor selling the house... I'd talk with my financial advisor, account and attorney.

re:uujudy

With any luck it won't be either me or my wife who will be concerned with the ultimate (10-20yr) value of our house. At our stage in life the house is a home, not an investment.
It's nice to make a good deal, but having a nice property and being able to enjoy it is equally important.

re: rshoffer

I would guess their might be some sellers very amenable to do a lease/puchase deal or some variation thereof. When you consider the ancillary costs of owning, a long-term lease in a declining market makes a whole lot of sense. With an option to buy at market, even better.

:agree: Judy, I agree 100%! It's all about the lifestyle. If you jump in with both feet, I don't think you'll ever be sorry. None of us are "spring chickens". I think we all have to remember that a long life isn't promised to any of us.

:agree:
At the end of the day at this time of our lives it's not about the 'best deal" you can get it's about the best life you can live.
Remember, there are no pockets in a shroud.