Five signs Trump’s campaign continues to fizzle
 

1. A key court ruling in Virginia
2. Trump’s organization is threadbare and amateurish.
3. The email scandal has not moved the needle.
4. So long as the focus is on serious problems, he loses.
5. His relations with Republicans are no better.
Five signs Trump’s campaign continues to fizzle - The Washington Post

So my question is. If Trump is replace, would he go third party?

What if the plan all along was to have this happen? Trump goes rogue and hands the election to Hillary.

Remember, there was a very long telephone call between Trump and Bill Clinton just before Trump announced he was a candidate. Hmmm?

The article suggests that if someone of substance stands up at the convention, Hillary may have a problem. That could unite the party. I think Trump's base could be persuaded to change teams. Being a Trump fan can be embarrassing at times.

The call was to discuss their grandchildren.
This Democratic "logic" is why Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reed, Charlie Rangle, and Barack, the converted Muslim that suddenly becomes Christian, get elected.

If Trump is doing so bad, why is it that he is running just about even with Hillary in the polls?

Hillary Clinton 1/3
Donald Trump 11/4

Betting Odds
put your money where your mouth is-----bet $4k and collect $11k
hrc fans need to put up $3k just to win $1k
bookies never lose either way

Good idea! I might just put a bet on Hillary, because I NEVER win. If I root for a team in the Super Bowl, they always lose. If I buy $20 worth of lottery tickets, not one winning digit will be on one of them. Maybe I will ensure that Trump wins by betting on Hillary. :evil6:

Never mind those numbers !!

Just listen to the many unpaid Clintonites on this site because they know exactly what the majority of voters are thinking right now .

What these people do not seem to realize is that the many Clinton apolgist/ spinners seen on the airwaves each evening are getting paid out of the Clinton Foundation . Yet these locals invest theeir time and ascerbic attitudes for free !

One thing for sure not one of the Clintons would do anything for anyone for free !

Never mind the very strange optics of Comey and Lynch and their
recent actions and testimony while under oath the past few days .

By count Lynch refused to respond to 74 questions today .
Just amazing .

But the Village Lefties keep pounding this site heard and often .

:agree:

Latest Quinnipiac poll shows Trump leading Hillary or even with her in three swing states.


FLORIDA: Trump 42 - Clinton 39
OHIO: Clinton 41 - Trump 41
PENNSYLVANIA: Trump 43 - Clinton 41

One thing that I learned in EOD school is, always beware of that fuse that fizzles. It could suddenly flare up at any moment and catch you by surprise. Trump beat 16 establishment politicians at their own game. He has bought the Clintons in the past, and he can certainly buy them again. If he really wants to win, he will.

trump played to the people, that I call repub terrorists. The intelligent repubs will vote against him. Most of the time when a fuse fizzles its dead, as far as the election that is where trump stands.

Hope Springs Eternal

We know there are good level headed people in bith parties.

We know that a democrat either just plays along and states what they are told to state regardless what they beilieve (Dumb). There are those democrats who have real core values and while they will not speak out so as to be cannon fodder for their democratic loyalist friends.......when in the privacy of the voting booth their values will prevail prohibiting them from voting for a criminal, pathological, crony, Mao duck pin shapped haggard felon.

Well, you proved that you are ignorant with three points there.

Repub terrorists? It appears that all the assaults that are occurring are from the left. BLM, Bernie's folks, Hillary's folks.

Intelligent Repubs vote against him? Nope, not gonna happen, and on top of that Trump has increased voter turnout by over 60%, a record.

And finally, you really shouldn't guess at something you know nothing about....fuses. Most of the time means nothing if that one time it blows up in your face. But, it will only happen once. But, you know it all libtards should go ahead and bet on that fuze being a dud. You are not batting a very good average, considering the dud you put in there for the past two terms. :)

But the Q poll does not take the demographicals into account. In the three states mentioned, the demographicals fit into the Democratic mode.

The big cities of those states have large populations that have the people affected favorably by Democratic programs. These people do vote as a bloc. When they do that, the electoral votes go to their party.

OK, I got it. If the poll favors a Republican, it doesn't mean anything because of special circumstances, such as some fictitious demographics issue. But, if the poll favors the Democrats, it's probably very accurate. Is that what you are saying?

If you do not believe what I said, go to any of the election betting odds and see what they are doing for the odds of both candidates. Clinton is way ahead. These are the professional gamblers.

You know that the demographics are meaningful. You understand how big cities in the states decide where the electoral votes go.

No arguments intended. Just wait and see.

IF they vote. If someone is too lazy to seek a paying job, what makes you think they will wait in line to cast their vote? Too lazy to work, too lazy to vote.

Most minorities have finally come to realize that the Democrats have done NOTHING in the last eight years to improve the socioeconomic status of minorities. So, why would they continue to vote for them? They won't.

With respect, I probably wouldn't put a lot of confidence in the professional gambler odds.
On the day of the brexit vote, the professional odds makers had remain at about 1/9 and leave at about 13/2.
Personally, I see a lot of parallels between Trump/Hillary and Brexit.

EU referendum odds - should you bet for Remain or Brexit? - Mirror Online

That's how you can make a lot of money. Why wouldn't you know more then the people in the gambling business? Bet on Tump.

It is amusing listening to folks portray odds makers as credible forecasters.

Why are they not rich?

Why are they not right more often?

Why are they so wrong so often?

They are in the category just below the local meteorlogist in the caliber, quality and accuracy of weather forecasting. MAybe that is not fair as there is some science to meterology!

Some folks will believe anything as long as it paints their picture the way they think it does.

Going with what you said, the minorities KNOW that if a Democrat does not get elected, their "benefits" will be slashed by Republicans. They will turn out!

Odds compilers set the odds at bookmaking firms. They are also known as traders, and their role is absolutely essential. The odds they set eventually determine how much in wagers a bookmaker is likely to take in, and how much money they are likely to make. The act of setting the odds for a sports event is known as pricing the market.

There are a number of aspects involved in pricing up markets for sports events. The primary goal is to make sure the odds accurately reflect how likely any particular outcome might be, while also ensuring that there's a built-in profit margin. Determining the likelihood of outcomes is largely based on statistics, but very often a certain amount of sports knowledge must be applied as well.

Compilers therefore have to be very knowledgeable about the sports for which they are pricing markets; thus, they often specialize in just one or two. They also have to have a solid understanding of various mathematical and statistical principles.

Let's look at how a compiler might price up a market for a tennis match in which Novak Djokovic is playing Andy Murray. These two players are very close in ability, so the compiler would have to take a number of factors into consideration. They would look at current form, for example, and each player's known ability on the relevant playing surface. They would also take the results of past meetings into account.

Based on all these factors, they might reach the conclusion that Djokovic has roughly a 60% chance of winning the match and Murray roughly a 40% chance. The odds that approximately reflect these chances are Djokovic at 1.67 and Murray at 2.50. These odds don't include any vig, which would also need to be considered.

Generally speaking, compilers have a target margin. This may vary quite significantly for any number of reasons, but let's assume in this case that the compiler wants around a 5% margin. They would reduce the odds for each player by 5%, giving 1.59 for Djokovic and 2.38 for Murray.

A bookmaker's margin can be calculated by adding the reciprocal of the odds for all possible outcomes and converting it to a percentage. In this case, there are two possible outcomes, and the following equation would be used.

Margin Example

As you can see, the compiler has achieved the target of a 5% margin. However, the job doesn't end there. Compilers also have to try and make sure that a bookmaker has a balanced book.

How the Bookmakers Make Money - What's the Secret

Long story short--they make a lot of money because it doesn't matter who wins. They take in enough money on both sides and charge a vig. For them it's not as childish as r's are better, no d's are better.

Not to worry, when Donald Trump gets elected, you will still be able to abort your children and your collect welfare benefits.

Polls are BS, don't even look at them.

They think the fix is in?

Minorities, very soon, will be the majority. On that day, it won't matter, white people will lose.

Paper ballots and LOTS of teams counting to votes over there made it an honest vote.

We have "electronic" voting here...it can be fixed.

Confirmation bias, it's REALLY hard to fight it.

Yes, like stock brokerages, they take a cut on each trade.

And moms will still be able to dump off their kids where Lawanda, the 3rd worlder from Somalia will be "teaching" you child.

Partisan BS bait thread......again!

Stop being a jerk. The president in not muslim, *******.

Of course not. He is a Muslim sympathizer/enabler. It's the gun's fault, the truck's fault, or the lack of sympathy by the white Cops.

But, any way you look at it, he is a low life anti-American ****.

Who cares if the cops are white or black? Most cops were bullies as kids and just matured into jobs where they could bully legally - until camera phones were invented.

Now, some are being caught doing their illegal bullying and the tables have turned! :MOJE_whot:

I urge everyone to have their camera phone ready at all times and to turn it on if you are ever pulled over.

Right on! The juvenile officer in the police department was the biggest bully in the school.

In the beginning of his campaign I believed he was a Trojan horse sent in by the Clintons, especially given his hap-hazard performance. Anything is possible in politics.

I also suspect that Obama is looking for a position such as in the UN where he could continue his anti-capitalistic campaign and destroy America's influence in the world showing his disdain for America as he does for England

Time reveals the truth. Let's see where Trump and Obama land after the elections

Personal Best Regards:

Interesting view. I also thought that Trump was not a serious contender. Guess I was wrong on that. I think that Trump will win and Clinton will go away. Obama on the other hand, is going to be a continuous thorn in the side of America. I wish he would just take his money and go away. He is nothing but poison.