Feelings on pending recession?
 

Wondering what everyones feelings are on a possible recession and your investment strategies?

So far we are beating the market a little at loosing about 1% (compared to the market losing about 1.5%) over the past week of turbulence.

How are you doing, and are you making any preparations (and any you would like to share) to protect your retirement nest egg from a possible pending recession?

Invest in forestry, not stocks

Be diversified, have cash ready to get some real bargains--2008-2009 was a blessing for a lot of people--get to zero debt fast-

Election time. Twisted news. Insider trading. Lots of things to worry about. Cash is king.

There is way too much recession hysteria going on, fueled by an out of control media. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP, and we are nowhere near that condition. First Quarter US GDP grew by 3.1 percent and Second Quarter GDP grew by 2.1 percent. While the trend is down, it's nowhere near recession levels and everyone should just calm down. The Oracle of Omaha just bought some more Amazon stock . . . .

It’s time for a recession as we have had ten years of growth. We will survive, but have not doubt, it’s coming soon. Too much pressure being put on the world market with trade wars.

Like many others, I believe the “recession” fears are politically driven and not based in financial reasoning. That said, I have a reserve of cash that I am looking to leverage when the fear forecasters drive the non-educated from the market. If history repeats, I am looking at making a quick 10 - 15% with that reserve account. Although it may sound mean, one must take advantage of the hysteria spin and the less financially knowledgeable in situations like this.

We spoke with our financial advisor yesterday, and he said its about a 50-50 chance of recession based on the economic factors in evidence right now, and it may be down the road a year or two not necessarily tomorrow.

Exactly, While ours says maybe 52/48 chance and not tomorrow but soon - year or so.

As pointed out, it is time, about 10 years from the last one and the rate inversion.

Cash is a good thing, and we are new to this, so the hard part is to keep repeating "Think long term"...

Historicaly
 

Going back many decades it has been the experience there is a recovery period and a recession after the recovery and the recession is 1/2 the length of the recovery. Two things. 1. It is reasonable to expect a recession since we had a long recovery period. 2. Hopefully there will not be attempts to try to delay the recession as it would just be causing the recession to be longer. :ho:

Recession forecasting "hysteria" is nothing more than a fabricated wedge to get the public's attention. Of course politically/media driven. And as history would attest has little to nothing to do with how we live our lives.

The accuracy of such prognostications is akin to measuring passing clouds and more like poll results (and we all know how accurate they are NOT).

A way to make one feel better? Just do not watch any of the network news including FOX.

I prefer to be able to select that news which is of interest to me vs the agenda driven national news readers (not reporters).

Keep at least two years of living expenses in cash or cash equivalents - money markets, CD ladders, short term bonds.. It will help you sleep better at night.

Went to cash when Dow was over 27,000. Not much interest earned, but profit taken is still there.

I have always believed that trying to time the stock market is a bad way to invest. Typically, most stock market timers cannot even match the S&P 500 Index performance. I have never used a financial advisor, but, if I did, I would ask them to tell me what they are doing with their own investments.

Let’s see, interest rates are low, people have jobs and businesses are still hiring, wages are rising and the current Administration is actually doing something to bring more jobs back from countries that have taken advantage of our lax trade laws. Just don’t feel a recession yet despite those that almost seem to wish one on our Country. Just look at all of the entry level jobs paying above minimum wage, these are still very good economic times.

Inverted Yield Curve Is Predicting Recession. What Are Other Economic Indicators Saying? | Fortune

I am not worried just yet.

National economic downturns and any indicators of same seem to be noted, and even celebrated by some folks for other reasons. At least on this Forum. Just watching from a safe seat. Not an expert.

We survived the last recession. I'm guessing we'll survive the next one. And the one after that.

I have leaned toward investing dividends of current holdings more to tax free muni's instead of back into stocks though.

A lot of people are working two jobs to survive (not prosper) tell them we are doing great now. That also brings unemployment down when someone works 2 jobs it is like two people working. Recession is going to occur, not if, but when? Probably 1-2 years.

The Fed - Finance

There are all kinds of resources out there for information. I still trust the main news sources like NBC, ABC, CBS and CNN. These are news and not entertainment like FOX news which I think does not even qualify as "news" because their "facts" are so skewed.

Or try going into a library and asking the reference librarian what are the best sources for information about economic trends in the US.

Absolutely!!!!!

You can trust all of them WHEN they promote and publish the facts and not their opinions which doesn't happen often these days. The opinions, the titles published do not always echo the thoughts of voters, so that in a National Election, many people are surprised and incredulous.

When I see a downturn in the Dow, I look immediately for a couple of posters on this forum to post and to gloat. At least it seems that way to me. I am not a financial expert. I am a retired Pre-School teacher. But thank heavens I am not as dumb as I look.

Librarians are trained to be impartial. Try going into one of the local Villages' area libraries. They can show you sources for reliable information about economic indicators and the like. And stuff about recessions and if they might happen.

People can make statistics suggest untruths but it is usually very easy to tell what they want you to believe.

There are many sources of good information out there.

And these are the reliable media like CBS, ABC and NBC as long as you check their numbers with proven other sources.

Also, I'm sure the vigilant person would check the fact from these "reliable" sources with a "non-partisan" fact checker like Snopes.

And don't forget these other 'fact-checking' sites...which most often agree with Snopes.

Truth or Fiction? - Seeking truth, exposing ficiton

Fact-checking U.S. politics | PolitiFact

Which, unfortunately for some, kinda blows the conspiracy theory about Snopes being 'biased'...right out of the water. :ho:

What's really sad, is that most people don't even bother to research and prefer to just believe/pass on...whatever fits their confirmation bias. :ohdear:

And for those who really want to research facts, here's a number of other sites to use to compare...what you've already researched.


The 10 Best Fact Checking Sites



IF you've even done any research...in the first place. :oops:

These look good. Talking to your local friendly and knowledgeable reference librarian is also a good idea. One that works in your community's library.

Charles Payne says the rate inversion is caused by huge amounts of foreign investment pouring in. Rate is staying low because a percent and a half is so much better that getting 95 percent of your principal back in ten years in Europe. Rate doesnt need to climb to attract investors. This is something new and is not the reason for previous inversions.

They will not direct you to biased sources if they are working as objective professionals. Most libraries I have volunteered at or worked in would not even have materials that are extremely slanted in some way. At least not reference materials.

There will be a recession. There will be a recovery. When? None of us know. I have an average return of 8.3% annually for the past 33 years with a very low risk model. I use index funds, set an asset allocation and re balance when ever I am 5% out of balance. Forces me to always sell high and buy low. The S&P has made about that same return but with a significantly higher risk profile.

Using this or similar model you don't really care what the market does or when we have a recession or a recovery. Look up the Bernstein or Yale or other index fund low risk investment models and do some back testing on them. Find one you like and follow it. Then you too will not really care what the media, politicians or investment advisers have to say as they try to hype the markets and cause ups and downs for their benefit.

This guy has some other crazy ideas.....just Google.

Hoping and praying, all will be well, feel bad for my soybean farmer friends that are in a bad way.

Same here. :(

I have a number of Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas relatives on my Mom's side (mom had 11 siblings, which makes for LOTS of aunts/uncles/cousins :D) who farm (a couple are 4th generation family farms), but are now reevaluating & kicking themselves for supporting that which they're now seeing first hand...has been detrimental to their own best interests.

They're extremely worried that the current problems, have the very real potential of making them the last generation...and they'll have to sell out to a corporate entity.

My fingers are crossed and I almost dread seeing another Facebook post or e-mail...from any of them. :ohdear:

[QUOTE=ColdNoMore;1674055][SIZE="2"]Same here. :(

I have a number of Colorado/Nebraska/Kansas relatives on my Mom's side (mom had 11 siblings, which makes for LOTS of aunts/uncles/cousins :D) who farm (a couple are 4th generation family farms), but are now reevaluating & kicking themselves for “supporting that which they're now seeing first hand...has been detrimental to their own best”





I think that your relatives are wiser than that if they have been farming that long. Manipulation of farm prices is a joke and many here maybe unaware of huge corporate farms taking over farming and prices. Consumers will be amazed at the cost of food in twenty years.

Also, you may want to check the fat, government subsidies being handed out to farmers. Google it in each state. It’s laughable and now farmers are insuring their crops and many in this locale are cashing lovely checks because it was too wet to plant or later in the season so they filed a claim and are not hurting at all.

Farming is a whole different game than even 20 years ago.

[QUOTE=Aces4;1674065]If they are not hurting, why have there been so many bankruptcies and foreclosures in the past two years?
Btw a lot of that government payola (because of the tariffs) is going to those very corporate farms.

I recall listening to my father and a friend of his talking about farming when I was a teen, 50 years ago, and they were saying exactly the same thing then as you are saying now.

Well, this thread has taken some interesting turns. I appreciate some of the suggestions and ideas.

I have to say, it is somewhat amazing how civil this forum remains despite wandering close to sensitive topics.

Thanks everyone from both sides for the interesting conversation.

[QUOTE=Bogie Shooter;1674119]I assume you’re questioning why small farms are being pushed out and it is because of large farms overproducing and squeezing the profit margins for the little guy as the cost of seed and equipment continue to rise.

Farm short courses years back saw this beginning to happen and advised students quite often what was coming down the road. It’s here and government payola has been out there for years. It was called “soil bank” in many areas, way back when, meaning if you don’t plant the government will pay you for leaving your land fallow.

If you were noticing farms having issues over two years ago, you’re right and even before that and that was before tariffs. Have tariffs made it more difficult for farmers? In some corners, yes. Pork producers are feeling the pinch and perhaps some cash croppers but the American small farmer has had problems for years and those farms have been disappearing.

Those farms receiving huge subsidies are the ones I am indicating are not hurting. We’re talking about the $200,000. to over a million dollar payouts. A recession will send many more small farms down the tube.