Reality Check on Covid 19
 

Deaths in Florida to date:1055
Florida population: 21.5 million

As a percentage, deaths from COVID-19 are .0005 %

As a percentage, those that have survived COVID-19 are 99.9995%

For comparison: in 2018, 3091 people died from the flu in Florida. Taken from CDC website.

So my question is, why is much of the Florida population walking around in a state of paranoia? In my lifetime this is the first media generated pandemic that I have ever witnessed? Not saying people should not be careful just as always with any disease or virus out there. But this current reaction is unwarranted!

Most people do not think that this is a media generated pandemic.

Most people wonder why Florida is not dying the way New York State is dying.

Many people think that the population is generally older and perhaps wiser and more careful.

There are so many factors that need to be considered. I will be so glad when all facts are validated and all figures are run so we can have a clearer picture. For now we have speculation and incorrect conclusions on the part of many.

Do you mind, OP, telling if you are over 65?

0.005%.

I am 70

I do think there is much ignoring of facts, distorting them to fit whatever picture you want to paint.

From the birth of the virus ( haven't seen the scientific or medical community disagree) to what people say (video be damned), we are our own worst enemy. Looking to place blame is not responding to questions on the entire situation

All be safe, smart and keep looking for facts

I blame China

There you go....makes it easy and simple for you.

Here is the latest advice from a person who is widely thought of as a valid expert;

Dr. Deborah Birx Says Social Distancing Must Continue Through Summer Months

I see that the OP has removed the word "paranoia" from the original post. I agree with the change.

I'd like to know who is getting infected. We have been quarantined and socially distanced for six weeks. The incubation period of the virus supposedly is 2 to 14 days. Are all the new cases for the past three weeks essential workers and immediate family of persons who were already infected? The trajectory of new infections per day has leveled off, but we are still getting over 28,000 new infections per day in the US.

In the 3 counties where the Villages has a presence (Sumter, Lake, Marion) the population is 855,000. The normal daily death rate from all causes is 16 per 1,000. 8.2 out of 1,000 of those are due to auto accidents, so the non-auto death rate is 7.8. The current death total from CV19 is 26, which is 3.2 per 100,000. 70% of those who have died are over 70, and have co-morbidity factors - namely ( diabetes, obesity, heart disease, asthma ) which reduces the odds a normal person in generally good health will die. What we need to worry about is the immense overreach government has taken and is not going to slowly let go.

Check your statistics. If the daily death rate is 16 per 1,000, we would all be dead in three months.

What concerns me more then the COVID epidemic is this:

Smoking is the leading cause of preventable death.

Cigarette smoking is responsible for more than 480,000 deaths per year in the United States, including more than 41,000 deaths resulting from secondhand smoke exposure. This is about one in five deaths annually, or 1,300 deaths every day.

From the CDC website

Yet, the restaurants that allow smoking at outside bars remain complicit in contributing to deaths from secondhand smoke exposure.

Per 100,000

Maybe that's why we are locking ourselves away from this virus. It's taking away our right to die from preventable, self-inflicted causes. Endeavor to persevere, my friend.:pray:

The word paranoia was not removed from the original post? Also I don’t solely rely on what Dr. Birx says or Dr. Fauci for that matter. They are single minded for the most part and in capable of applying or seeing the big picture

Reality check TV Daily Sun
 

Did the Sun jump the gun? There's a full page listing in the Sun today of all the acts booked for the squares starting May 1. But virus experts are saying keep social distancing the norm throughout the summer. Six feet apart in the bar line. Doubtful. How's that going to work on Scooter Night? Maybe he'll create The Mask Dance. It'll be a shame to advertise the performances only to cancel them again.

The experts keep saying?????
They are part of the problem. Every two weeks the so-called experts have changed their numbers and predictions. When will people say enough? I already have!

I apologize to you. You did NOT remove the word "Paranoia" from your post at all. I was wrong.

I have a question for you. What does this sentence mean, highlighted above? I think you mean that their opinion is primarily medical? That part of the problem and a significant part of the overall problem is economical? If so I agree. It is indeed very complex. I, however am one who is profoundly grateful for the medical advice of both Doctor Fauci and Dr. Birx. I don't know if anyone can figure out answers that will help us with this economic disaster. Anyone.

Maybe I’ve been looking at this wrong, but I’ve been comparing the following information:
Florida (as of this morning)
Tests 333,099
Cases 30,839 (9.2% of those tested)
Deaths 1,075 (3.5% of those with COVID19)

In the US overall, the numbers are a bit higher:
US
Tests 5,184,635
Cases 931,698 (18%)
Deaths 47,980 (5%)

I feel good/safe about the flu, since I get a flu shot every year. With COVID19, since there is no vaccine, there is a 9.2% chance I could come down with it. Since I have underlying health issues, I wonder if there is a greater than 3.5% chance that if I get it, I won’t make it.

That’s how I’ve been looking at this. Is this not correct?

No, there is not a 9.2% chance the you will come down with COVID-19. Of those who have been tested, 9.2% in FL are positive but the only people (mostly) who are being tested are those who are symptomatic. Nobody knows the odds (yet) of testing positive for COVID-19 if you are asymptomatic.

Yes, you got it right. All they know about is how to treat the disease and how to test for the disease. They don’t care at all about how long we are shut down or what it does to this country and the ramifications of that happening. Our president and really all Americans have to be concerned with everything at the same time

It is hard to know if "they don't care at all about how long we are shut down or what it does to this country and the ramifications of that happening." I would say that their main focus is to guide people to do the things that will keep them alive. Many people are conflicted because of this very complex and not easily solved problem. I believe that the numbers people, the ones we turn to for economic advice, who clearly see that continued shut down will put the world in an economic downturn that none of us have seen in this lifetime, those people who know this...……...MOST of them still very much care that opening up the businesses again is going to spread the virus and cause death to those who are vulnerable. Sometimes, there are no clear answers or solutions to problems. There are few people who are entirely bad or good. People are too often vilifying innocent people and grasping at rumors and believing conspiracy theories because this very real pandemic it is not something that is easily fixed or perhaps even fixable.

Just read this this evening, and it is worth sharing.

Four weeks ago, on March 26, there were 938 confirmed U.S. coronavirus deaths. Today, on April 26, there are now 54,530 confirmed U.S. deaths. In one month, more than 53,000 Americans have died.

Hoping at this point, someone can call for empathy, and wish the families well.

May all the victims Rest In Peace.

I for one don't want to tempt fate. Who knows for sure that opening the country back up is safe? If "they" want to open the country back up to save the economy, I can see their reasoning. I am a cancer survivor and feel that if I contracted this disease, I would not survive. My husband feels the same way about himself because of his age. We are fortunate to be able to shelter in place, have enough contact with family and friends through digital means, have actually an interesting life at home and WILL NOT take the chance of catching this on its rebound if there is one.

I don't care what the numbers say or how anyone wants to interpret them. I understand why people are desperate to open the economy back up. I feel blessed that it doesn't have to affect me, and I pray/cross my fingers/cast spells that it won't have a disastrous effect on the general public. I guess we all have to make our own decisions after things open back up.

Good post. Nuff said...so many unknowns.

Can't imagine why "Most people" would wonder about that. Seems quite obvious. NYC which is the vast majority of deaths in New York State (12,067 in NYC alone with 16,599 in the entirety of NY State) is a hellava lot more population density than anywhere Florida or pretty much anywhere in the US.

It's all due to population density as well as the demographics of those who are dying especially in NYC with people of color & lower income being affected the most.

New York City's population density (including all boroughs) of 26,403 people per square mile , makes it the densest of any American municipality with a population above 100,000. Manhattan's population density is 66,940 people per square mile , highest of any county in the United States.

It's pretty simple for me: being alive is more important than shooting a bow. Being alive is more important than paying my amenity fee. Being alive is more important than eating in a restaurant, or dancing in the town square, playing golf**, seeing friends, buying a new pair of shorts.

**playing golf isn't important to me AT ALL since I don't play but it's a pretty big deal for many down here so I tossed it in.

There is no economical concern, to me, you, or anyone else, if we are dead.

:bigbow:
Therein lies the problem! No one knows how many "typhoid Mary's" are and will be running amok through the cities all over the US as people get released out of their homes.

In an Ohio prison: In practically a worst-case situation where social distancing is minimal, around 80% of the inmates tested positive and yet the majority do not exhibit symptoms. Similar results (but not 80%) have been reported where non-symptomatic people have been randomly tested like in NY.

Mass coronavirus testing in Ohio prisons shows large asymptomatic infection rate

It's definitely the "HIDDEN ENEMY" we have to worry about it spreading from now not those who are already obviously sick.

The Daily Sun still lists businesses open that are not. I'd bet and HOPE that ain't happening unless maybe they got dispensation from PaPa DeSantis.

Edit: That's just the usual "monthly entertainment calendar" in the paper and says "subject to change without notice" on the bottom Don't think it means anything official. If they start on May 20th (or whatever) you can go from whatever date they start.

According to an antibody study of Miami-Dade County, 6% of the residents there were exposed enough to the virus to generate antibodies. This was 15X the number of positive virus tests. So you could crudely guess your odds of contracting the virus is 0.4% - if you lived in Miami-Dade County. TV is not as "hot" as Miami-Dade, so lower your odds further, and social distancing lowers your odds way further.

You might want to INCREASE your odds by the number of people who are carriers and have never been tested because they are asymptomatic or presymptomatic. And NO ONE knows yet if having antibodies means bupkis.*



*Define Bupkis Bupkis means absolutely nothing. It comes from the Yiddish bobkes, meaning nonsense or nothing, and it emerged in English during the early 20th century. It began as North American Jewish slang, but it’s now used more broadly, often for humorous effect

Not specifically for COVID-19, but it's a good bet that the presence of antibodies confers immunity. In general, IgM antibodies speak for a recent infection and IgG antibodies for long term immunity. The long term immunity tends to wane over time but is generally good for quite a while. Polio----pretty much lifetime immunity. Diphtheria---used to be thought to be lifelong but now adults should get a booster if they are going to be in close contact with infants. Tetanus---good for 5-10 years. MMR ---good long term, but since these are generally childhood illnesses it doesn't come up much in adults. Hepatitis B---seems to be a little difference between immunity from having had the disease vs. the recombinant vaccine but also long term.

So, it's a pretty good bet that anyone testing positive for IgG antibodies for Covid-19 is immune, the question will be for how long?

Publishing the listing does not mean the squares will be open on those dates. Last month, they published the same listing for the month of April and not a single one of those bands performed. If/when the squares open at all in May, the listing provides the bands you should see on each square on those dates. If they don't open at all, then it was a wasted page of paper. NOTHING here opens before 5/4, so we already know the first few days of that schedule are wasted ink.

I sit back and watch this site and the social media posts and am amazed at how many health experts and doctors the world has gained in only the past couple of months. I'm not trying to become one of those. However, we can't possibly calculate an accurate infection rate or a true mortality rate until further testing is done of the asymptomatic population - not everyone, but enough to base statistical calculations on. Right now, there is only one known value for the mortality rate equation and that's the number of deaths. In places where they have done further testing, it is becoming abundantly clear that many more people have been exposed and infected than anyone thought. This is actually a good thing in a couple of ways: 1 - greater probability of herd immunity going forward and, 2 - the mortality rate is likely much, much lower than many thought.

When the numbers are actually in, that will be the true reality check.

I was not speaking to antibodies conferring immunity (although I agree with Eagles). I was using positive antibody tests as a denominator for roughing out calculations. It is a fairly fixed number (that will rise over time) and it covers the scenario you allude to - that a huge number of people were exposed to the virus and never got the virus test.