Second coronavirus wave unlikely in Denmark: top expert
 

Denmark apparently has epidemiologists that are smarter than Dr Fauci.


A second wave of the new coronavirus is unlikely in Denmark as the reproduction rate has stayed below a key threshold since restrictions were eased a month ago, a top health expert said Tuesday.

The reproduction rate has fallen from 1.0 at the end of April to 0.7 in the first week in May, according to the state-run infectious disease prevention agency SSI, the nation's top institute of its kind.

A reproduction rate of 1.0 means that one person with COVID-19 infects on average just one other, while a rate of less than 1.0 indicates that the spread is declining.
"If the virus were allowed to spread freely and we were doing nothing, then it would be likely that we would have a second wave of COVID-19 ... but we have learned more about how to handle this illness," SSI expert Kare Molbak told reporters.

Denmark shut down schools, shops, restaurants and businesses in mid-March in a bid to curb the spread of the disease.

It was the first country in Europe to reopen its nursery and primary schools on April 15.
Since then small businesses like hair salons, dentist offices and tattoo parlours have been allowed to reopen, followed this week by shopping centres and department stores.

This progressive return to normal life has not led to an increase in the number of confirmed cases, with the reproduction rate remaining below 1.0.

Second coronavirus wave unlikely in Denmark: top expert

And you read it on a nternet so it must be true

On a nternet? Chuckle

Dr Kare Molbak is the State epidemiologist of Denmark, equivalent to Dr Fauci's position here. See all those quotation marks?

Those are direct quotes from Dr Molbak.

Actually it must be correct because it is what the poster wants to believe....always find an "expert" that suits your agenda right?

I think they call this projection.

Since we are beginning to open here in Florida and other states, I am looking at places like Denmark where they did so earlier to see if the cases are spiking.

As Spock would say, it would be illogical to do otherwise.

Denmark started opening up one month ago. A new study calculates that the median incubation period for COVID-19 is just over 5 days and that 97.5% of people who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days of infection. So a drop in the infection rate over 30 days is good news.

I read that Wuhan China had 6 new cases, but in a city of 11 million that's a thumbtack, not a spike. They are making new tests mandatory for all 11 million citizens, so that should produce some interesting data on possibility of large spikes after opening.

spent over a week in Denmark last summer, roaming around freely interacting with many of the locals (not on a tour)...nice country..

very, very different country, culture, behavior from what we have here in the States

I'm pleased to hear that Denmark may not encounter a serious second wave of the virus...they are good people

I also believe that we should be able to learn from everyone and study what they've done and the results that they achieve regarding covid-19

That said, give the differences and variables between the States and Denmark on so many levels, I just don't see how a comparison of Denmark to the US could be done 'apples to apples'

What differences in Denmark would not make it susceptible to experience a serious second wave of infections after reopening? Denmark has a much higher population density than USA with 88% of citizens living in urban areas and 347 people per square mile. Pretty sure that density is a huge driver of infection rates.

Attachment 84105

Photo of Danish school children in a classroom taken 2 days after Denmark reopened their schools. No masks, desks are spread nicely. This was a month ago. No reports of 1000s of kids catching covid 19.

Maybe Denmark represents a realistic combination of science and common sense.

Here In America there is far too much political and media driven fear and wild a$$ guesstimating.....hence common sense doesn't get much play.

I don't think most countries have people willing to trash their economy in order to gain an advantage.

Totally agree!

hate to say this...and I am not trying to make you wrong...because I've liked many of your posts...but don't you sound like Hillary Clinton "What difference does it make?" LOL

okay so you're in the density camp...the country of Denmark as a whole is no where near as dense as NYC

the difference in the ingrained culture,,, the difference in the human behavior and the difference in the number of people flying into the US from Europe vs. flying into Denmark make all the difference...

Danish people are VERY different from folks in the US....if you had you spent any time there among them you would immediately know this

your professional (non military) career may not have allowed you the opportunity to spend much time overseas, or in an international role...if it had, you'd most likely see this the same way I do (again...not a knock)

Europeans see the world very differently than we do in the US

we've spent a lot of time in Europe for business and for pleasure...I had many Europeans reporting directly to me for decades....they don't look thru life with the same lenses that we do

that said

Denmark has a population of 5.8 million...the US has 328.2
Denmark consists of 16.6 square miles...the US 3.8 Million
Denmark has 4 international airports...the US has 149

maybe comparing Denmark to Rhode Island or Delaware might make sense from some vectors...but don't come back to me with square miles...as I'm just using this as an example for talking points and haven't compared the land mass

I'm all for learning from what Denmark is experiencing....but please, don't try to equate
Denmark to the US...that's just not realistic

in closing...I choose not to continue an online debate with you on this....I've said my piece and I'm totally willing to honor what you choose to believe...and we'll leave it at that

stay safe and continue to enjoy the good life

I'm not in the density camp, it's a proven fact that higher density produces more infections in a pandemic. See NYC data. All the US states are choosing different strategies, continue lockdown, limited reopening etc. So I am not comparing Denmark to the whole country, just to various reopening strategies here. I am not "choosing to believe "something, just looking at data on a reopening process.

I've been to 75 foreign countries, including Denmark.

The virus doesn't care what "lens" you look at life through. It infects you the same way all over the world. The purpose of my post was to look at a country that reopened a month ago to see how they are doing. So far so good. I hope it stays that way.

I don't care to debate this with you any further :icon_wink:

This is good news for Denmark. It’s potentially even better news for The Villages. The Tri-County area has less than 1% total who have been diagnosed positive for the virus. Based on a total population of 130,000 at The Villages (I know it is less now, but I don’t know how much less, only 1/17th part of 1% of the Villagers have been tested positive. Of course, there may be a lot more who have or have had the virus, but those are the current released numbers. They are very hopeful. The biggest danger is probably people who live outside The Villages in crowded housing and haven’t paid much attention to the social distancing guidelines and now come here to serve you food and sell you things. It’s also more dangerous for them, as they are in contact with so many people. I would like them to all wear masks and gloves for another month.

[QUOTE=GoodLife;1764302]Denmark apparently has epidemiologists that are smarter than Dr Fauci. QUOTE]


No.. Denmark has leadership smart enough to LISTEN to their epidemiologists.
USA doesn't.
The issue is NOT Fauci's "smartness"

It has been reported that the people of Denmark actually made it their responsibility to follow all of the stay safe policies put forward early on. Our Administration ignored the intelligence reports for months , then when CV19 showed no mercy here , we ended up with protesters with long guns invading capitol bldgs.rather than wear a mask and social distance. See the difference?

Random thoughts
 

I beg to differ; scientists give their best understandings and the politicians make the decisions. In America there has been far to much political and media driven pressure to reopen in places that shouldn't be reopening. There are places where reopening but common sense is lacking in, for example, directives about meat packing plants.

[QUOTE=RoadToad;1764643]I wonder if our administration was listening to Dr Fauci when he said "the risk is miniscule" "it's not something the American public needs to worry about" " "It's very very low risk to the United States" "facemasks not necessary for healthy people" "travel bans don't work" "pandemics are never spread by the asymptomatic" etc etc

Since those statements he has done a 180 and reversed course, most likely because he knows they were stupendous blunders.

Yes and you've proved it.

I am looking at European countries who have reopened because.

1. Many of them like Denmark have done so before some states in USA, so we can see how its working and learn from it.
2. Europe is about the same size as USA geographically, but more densely populated (500 million vs 300 million)
3. Just like USA, each country, like our states, is trying different things.
4. Looking at Europe takes US politics out of the equation.

Denmark has a National Health Care which is superior to the US system. They also started early and may have used the knowledge gained from S.Korea. The US was slow to use its tools like the DPA. Denmark had better national buy-in from its government and its citizens. The US could be better compared to Brazil.

This thread is about Denmark reopening and how they are doing it. See if we can learn something as we begin to do the same.

Comparing how various countries responded initially to the pandemic is a completely different topic. Brazil is a mess and many think it will be the new hotspot.

Sorry, Denmark has 16,000+ square miles.

Ummmm
 

What advantage? Most countries do not begin to match the US in $ amounts in the US Treasury, so they are more likely to do what is necessary to get BACK TO WORK. No free money for everybody. Many of us, however, are reluctant to do what is necessary, thinking, I imagine, that our bodies and minds will give us the cue when it's time to go back to work. Many seem to be inordinately attracted to their gut, as if your bowels will give you the answers you seek. Like many, I've been in my home constantly since March 13. That's only 60 days. What would YOU do if you HAD to stay in until November?

Another data point to watch is Australia and New Zealand. They are entering their "November" period, when a second wave of Wuhan Virus had been predicted to occur. Hasn't happened yet and that bodes well for us this coming Fall. Keep in mind that virologists look to Australia and Southeast Asia first to see what flu strains are emerging to determine what should go into the flu shot you should get this September.

Good point will take a look at Oz and the kiwis thanks!

68% Say Lockdown Shouldn't End Until All Diseases Are Eradicated And There Is No War, Hunger, Or Suffering

U.S.—A new poll has been released that shows most Americans are comfortable with staying in lockdown for a while longer. In fact, according to the poll, a full 68% of Americans say the lockdown shouldn’t end until all diseases are eradicated, along with war, hunger, and any form of suffering.

This sentiment was repeated by many different Americans. “Opening up before everything that could hurt people has been eliminated could just lead to people dying,” said Kelvin Grant, an online journalist, who spoke via Zoom. “Let’s just hide in place until everything bad goes away.”

“As long as there are diseases and other bad things out there, it’s only safe to stay inside away from everyone else,” agreed Grace Wilson, a web designer, who spoke through a mail slot. “Like I saw a wasp outside the other day. We shouldn’t go outside until all wasps are gone. Or else someone could get stung. Stung by a wasp.”

A number of governors expressed solidarity with the poll results. “Everyone really should stay locked down and do everything I tell them until all bad things are gone,” said Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. “Anything else could lead to death, disease, wasp stings, stubbed toes -- lots of badness. That’s why if anyone is outside when I tell them not to be, the police will shoot them.”

Since eliminating all bad things could take a long time, there are now some new initiatives to help people shelter in place for months longer, including instructions on how to burrow underground and live as mole people.

*Note, on the off chance it's not obvious, this is sarcasm *

What does Denmark have to do with us?

What would Shakespeare say about all this?

Couldn't resist.........
 

"Much Ado About Nothing", perhaps............

They are a month into reopening, we can watch what they do and see how it works.

Plus they make nice pastries.

Good life = good info = good person

There is no country exactly like us, but we can learn from any country that is reopening on how to do it safely. Schools are schools, restaurants are restaurants etc.

Yayyyy! I do have a hidden agenda though. I want our country to get through this and get back on it's feet. :)

If you have to explain a joke, maybe it is not a good joke.

History does NOT start when a certain topic or thread begins.

The history of how to reopen the economy is being written as we speak, if you want to discuss history of how various countries initially responded, start a thread.