There's something happening here
 

What it is ain't exactly clear

This is a graph of Covid 19 deaths per million population of the USA and various countries in Europe. It shows that the pandemic has followed a similar curve in these countries, with deaths rising rapidly, and then slowly going down over a period of 60-80 days.

Attachment 84221

A recent study by an Israeli mathematician proposed that the virus follows a similar curve in most counties, rising up and then going down over a period of 70 days. He doesn't think lockdowns have much effect.

Top Israeli prof claims simple stats show virus plays itself out after 70 days | The Times of Israel

Two recent scientific papers have proposed that their may be some preexisting immunity to covid 19 through previous exposure to other coronaviruses like the common cold.

Using diverse assays for detection of antibodies reactive with the SARS-CoV-2 Spike (S) glycoprotein, we demonstrate the presence of pre-existing immunity in uninfected and unexposed humans to the new coronavirus.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1...414v1.full.pdf

https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?...2820%2930610-3

New York City, with more cases and deaths than anywhere, follows a similar curve.

From NYC Health: Daily deaths from 3/15 to 5/17 (dark blue is confirmed, light blue projected)

Attachment 84222

COVID-19: Data Summary - NYC Health

So some say these curves are caused by lockdowns, but some countries like Sweden never really locked down, and others that started opening up a month ago are not showing huge spikes in new cases and deaths.

We know that covid 19 is more infectious than common flu, about twice as much, even the H1N1 flu. But yearly influenza infections dwarf what covid 19 has done in terms of infections. On average, 30 million Americans get the flu each year, and we have partially effective vaccines for the flu. It's possible that there will be a second wave and covid 19 will rack up higher numbers, but nobody knows for sure. SARS, a similar coronavirus, was global and then just faded away, has not returned. They don't know exactly why.

• Number of flu cases U.S. 2010-2017 | Statista

So why is this virus, more infectious than even the most virulent strains of the flu, not infecting and making more people sick? A recent antibody test was done in New York which estimated 21% of New Yorkers had been infected, but never got sick, called their Doctor, and got a test confirming the disease. They were immune in some way.

So what does all this mean? Perhaps a large portion of the population does indeed have some kind of immunity, possibly from previous exposure to other coronaviruses like the common cold, and this immunity is stronger in younger, healthier individuals who rarely die if infected.

I suspect the warming trend in the weather could be a factor of some significance that is a common denominator for most locations presented.
We won't know for sure until we have gone a full cycle.

We could also be witnessing the trends established during the pre shut down and post shut down implementation and effect(s).

Again the longer the cycle measured the more will be learned.

Don't forget that the chart is logarithmic - the distance on the y-axis from 0 to 1 is the same as from 1 to 10

I'm not sure about the warming trend thing. I recall a study that said chances of infection start to go down at 77 degrees or so. New York City has only reached that temperature once this year, on May 15. March and April had highs in 50s and 60s yet their daily death and case numbers started falling at the beginning of April. Miami area has the most cases in Florida and they've had highs in the 80s and 90s since March.

Sweden, which did not lockdown, has gone from a high of 98 daily
deaths in mid March to 53 yesterday. I'm not sure that's a lockdown effect.

Yes, but it's the same for all countries plotted and they all show similar curves. Also, the chart of NYC daily deaths is not logarithmic and shows similar fast rise and then gradual decline.

Facinating, hope it continues,

With the massive reopening experiment, we will likely find out sooner rather than later...

""""A recent study by an Israeli mathematician proposed that the virus follows a similar curve in most counties, rising up and then going down over a period of 70 days. He doesn't think lockdowns have much effect."""""

The curve may follow the same patern, but the countries that locked down hard and early, have certainly had a lot less cases and deaths than those that waited too long to shut up shop.

I agree that lockdowns slow things down. I also think the virus was circulating in places like New York long before they even thought about locking down.

Anyway, the similarity of curves in diverse places suggests something else is at work. The large numbers of asymptomatic cases estimated by various antibody studies seems to indicate the virus is more contagious and less deadly
and that a large percentage of people have some kind of preexisting immunity.

You won't know if this is all working as planned, until 2 weeks AFTER the "cases per day" level out at some kind of minimum (compared to how it was a month ago). Because it takes 2 weeks for the virus to incubate into sickness, and the sickness itself can last up to 2 weeks before someone dies from it. People don't just catch it and die the next day. It isn't that neat and tidy or convenient for number-crunchers.

The death rate reduction, in other words, is the culmination of efforts during the shut-down UP TO TWO WEEKS AGO. At that point, the state started re-opening and loosening restrictions. We will see how well that's working in the next two weeks. Not at the present time. If fewer people die in the next two weeks, than they did between 2 weeks ago and 1 month ago, then we'll know we're on to a positive trend.

Yes, everybody knows that deaths lag cases by a few weeks, that's why I selected a graph with daily confirmed deaths. Some of the countries in Europe started opening a month ago, and Sweden never really closed. All show a similar curve going downward.

We won't know until well after that. Lockdown was only undertaken to flatten the curve so that hospitals could cope. Once lockdown restrictions are eased, cases will rise. That doesn't mean we need to go into lockdown again, as hospitals are generally much better equipped now than they were three months ago.

The big question (only answerable many months from now) will be whether countries such as Sweden (that treated its citizens as adults and didn't impose a harsh lockdown) will have a lower overall death rate and a quicker reduction to virtually no new infections than nanny states that over-reacted and are still reluctant to face the fact that hiding away is merely going to delay any recovery.

I think common sense makes the statistics look worthless. In our home state, the spread is worse in factories, medical personnel and the elderly who have been contaminated by visitors and caretakers and fellow residents. It all speaks volumes to person to person spread. Isolation worked.

Was it "Take away my liberty and protect me from myself so that I won't have a very remote possibility of dying?" Wait, not sure that is what was said.

Except the countries in the Southern Hemisphere are getting cooler, not warmer, this time of year.

Curve Similar - BUT - Not The Death Count
 

Yes, a similar curve. But the Y-Axis can be misleading. The range goes from 1 death per to 10! THAT IS A HUGE DIFFERENCE. So, the graph is interesting - but the conclusion drawn from is not accurate.

I used that graph because it adjusted for population in countries. Here is another graph plotting daily total confirmed deaths in USA vs Europe. Europe has more people than us and peaked earlier, but you see the same shape in the curves over the same period of time. Deaths rise quickly and then taper off. Doesn't change my conclusion that something unknown is at work here at all.

Attachment 84237

The point was to slow the infection rate so not to overwhelm hospitals. Only a vaccine will control infection

I am hardly an expert in this field, nor would pretend to know all the answers...but, IMHO, this must've spread to MANY asymptomatic people for some time, to have suddenly spread THROUGHOUT the world without anyone noticing(or showing signs/symptoms/deaths)???

Yes, but Sweden did not lockdown, did not overwhelm their hospitals, does not have vaccine and yet they show a similar rise and fall in deaths,

Attachment 84238

It's called the brontosaurus effect. Most dinosaurs, and viruses, start small, get bigger in the middle, and get smaller at the other end.

It's a shame more countries weren't included in the graph. It would be interesting to see how places like Canada, South Korea, Greece, New Zealand & China compared. OK, not China... :D

But their immediate neighbors did lock down, and had a lot less cases and deaths.
Germany, Austria, New Zealand, Australia etc. locked down early, and compared to many, had far lower instances of the virus, and minimal deaths per head of population.
Here in UK our 'experts' dithered over lockdown or herd immunity, and look what that did for us, and our hospitals were not overwhelmed either.
The curve may be nearly the same, but the numbers show that early lockdown reduced cases substancially.

I believe it's "take my liberty and give me death"

Yes, every country was different, hard or soft lockdown, early or late lockdown etc. Here's a good article at Bloomberg, discussing this.

With governments across Europe reopening their economies for business, it’s a good moment to look back on the different paths taken to control Covid-19 outbreaks to try to see how effective they were.

Some — above all Italy and Spain — enforced prolonged and strict lockdowns after infections took off. Others — especially Sweden — preferred a much more relaxed approach. Portugal and Greece chose to close down while cases were relatively low. France and the U.K. took longer before deciding to impose the most restrictive measures.

But, as our next chart shows, there’s little correlation between the severity of a nation’s restrictions and whether it managed to curb excess fatalities — a measure that looks at the overall number of deaths compared with normal trends.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Based on this, you go ahead and expose yourself and hope you are one of those who is SARS immune and that will protect you. Good luck with that, the research is way too early.

It is pretty hot in Brazil and they are burying people is mass graves.

A lockdown is not the only thing to consider though. Most that died from Covid-19 seem to have underlying conditions, of which obesity is a major one. Coronavirus risk: 90% of patients had underlying conditions Another important stat to take into account could then be the different rates of obesity in USA (36.2%, 12th highest in the world) vs Sweden (20.6%, 97th from the top).
List of countries by obesity rate - Wikipedia

Where? What study?

Let us know when you think the research is on time. Why do you think the CDC just drastically reduced the death rates for this virus? Why did they say asymptomatic cases are at least 35% of the total? Why do asymptomatic people never get sick? Why do death total rise quickly and then fall off in every country?

I don't know if I am immune since I haven't had an antibody test yet. So I continue staying away from people inside buildings. I'm in a high risk group. This doesn't prevent me from considering that the whole worldwide lockdown was an error since 80% or more of deaths are from nursing homes and old people with pre existing health problems. A policy of just isolating seniors and strict rules, PPE for all nursing home staff etc would have saved more lives and allowed younger people to keep working with some precautions and not crash the economy.

Falling on deaf ears?
 

Your response (first sentence) to the "Sweden never locked down" comment was correct. Unfortunately, those that keep making that statement don't want to acknowledge your sensible reply because it debunks their belief that the "lockdown" was useless or some political conspiracy. Just MHO.

I doubt anyone even still reading this thread, but gotta say it anyway. IT WAS THE ANNUAL FLU. It killed a lot of people and is a true tragedy for those families and friends. Let me make that point with a few examples: (1) Just two years ago the US lost 81,000 plus to the annual flu. (2) If not for the gross inflation of this year's deaths we would be under that! (2) Look up the on line CDC instructions for death certificates. They clearly state if it is even possible that the victim had corona virus, count it. No test or autopsy required! (3) Hospitals are struggling and will be paid $19,000 per Covid-19 classification admission. They are capped at $6,000 for other admissions....which code would you use? (4) Look at US numbers versus world-wide. Do you really believe we have 30% of all world wide deaths?

Relative to total population the infection rate in Sweden (0.3%) was lower than in the US (0.5%). Also, relative to total population the death rate in Sweden (0.04%) was 33% higher than the US (0.03%). Interestingly, the death rate relative to those infected in Sweden (12.1%) was twice as high as in the US (5.9%).

I'm not going to even check your numbers because I doubt you figured asymptomatic cases into the equation. Sweden's chief epidemiologist said they were getting close to herd immunity last month, So their death rate is much lower, infection rate higher, and their daily death rate is going down. Without complete lockdown and wrecking their economy.

graph
 

This is a very strange graph. Two graph lines are not labeled. The legend does not correspond to the graph. What is Oceania on the graph? I'm not sure I would trust this graph.

The common cold is not a coronavirus.

Graph is from worldindata.com. They get their numbers from CDC equivalents in various countries. You can pick various countries to graph, including ones located in Oceania. Oceania is in a continental group consisting of numerous countries and includes Pacific islands and Australia.

Better let the CDC know

Common human coronaviruses, including types 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1, usually cause mild to moderate upper-respiratory tract illnesses, like the common cold

Common Human Coronaviruses | CDC

I merely used the numbers that are reported and did the math making no effort to take into account any other factors. Yes, I fully realize there are myriad factors that will enter the picture that haven't yet been considered such as severity of the lockdown, face covering, reporting of asymptomatic cases, etc. In time the important contributing factors will need to be taken into account for a more accurate analysis and assessment regarding the effectiveness of each nation's response - what worked and what didn't work.

This face cannot be doubted