CDC revises numbers, Fauci changes tone
 

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) nows estimates that 35 percent of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic.

But that’s not even the most important part of their latest estimates. It’s the CDC’s new “best estimate” for the case fatality rate amongst symptomatic patients.

0-49 years old: .05%
50-64 years old: .2%
65+ years old: 1.3%
Overall ages: .4%

According to the CDC’s current best estimate, the case fatality rate of the coronavirus is .4 percent. And that’s just amongst symptomatic cases, which, the CDC estimates, is 65 percent of all cases. This means the CDC estimates that the fatality rate for all infections across all age groups, symptomatic as well as asymptomatic, is approximately .26 percent.

Back in March, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimated a 3.4 percent fatality rate and Dr. Anthony Fauci estimated that the fatality rate of the coronavirus was about 2 percent.

Somebody else said this "I think that that number is very high. I think the number, personally, I would say the number is way under 1 percent"

COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios | CDC

In contrast to his recent rather gloomy Senate testimony, Dr Fauci now says this

Dr. Anthony Fauci says staying closed for too long could cause ‘irreparable damage’

Stay-at-home orders intended to curb the spread of the coronavirus could end up causing “irreparable damage” if imposed for too long, White House health advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said.

“I don’t want people to think that any of us feel that staying locked down for a prolonged period of time is the way to go,” he told CNBC.

Coronavirus: Dr. Anthony Fauci says staying closed for too long could cause '''irreparable damage'''

In a separate interview with NPR earlier in the day, Fauci said it was “conceivable” that the U.S. could begin to roll out a coronavirus vaccine by December.

He told CNBC that biotech firm Moderna’s vaccine data, released earlier this week, was very encouraging.

More and more wondering why the hell did they shut down the entire economy.

We aren't alone on this planet. Other countries did as well. It will take a great deal of numbers crunching, AFTER we find out how m any people actually had the virus, to really figure this whole thing out. We cannot forget these numbers;

Over 93,000 people died since the middle of March this year from Covid-19 in this country.

To be fair, not everything was known when this started, still isn't.

Fauci started out saying it was a miniscule risk, nothing to worry about. Then he overcompensated when it got more serious and they started to believe those catastrophically wrong models. Now, with these new lower numbers, he's seeing it's not quite so bad, death rate is much lower, and that waiting for a vaccine to ease lockdowns will crush the whole country.

It's probably time for him to retire, there are younger and smarter epidemiologists out there who are more up to date on viruses and pandemics. With hindsight, the whole lockdown the country was probably a bad idea, a less destructive plan would have told seniors to lockdown and isolate, provide PPE gear to all nursing home personnel, and remove covid 19 positives from nursing homes immediately. Let the rest of the country keep working with some precautions.

Yes, 93,000 is bad but nowhere near as bad as 2,200,000 the model they were using projected when they panicked and shut down the country. The new overall death rate of 0.26 is evidence that a worldwide economic shutdown was an over reaction. They could have just told seniors to self isolate and protected nursing homes better and the death totals would have been less than yearly flu deaths.

We know that NOW, darling.

Yes WE do sweetie, thanks to me posting it. :icon_wink:

Can't make the connection between the reduced death total and the actions taken? Hmmmm. Of course everyone would then need to redefine seniors. I'm sure if you were in your 60's (some probably in your 70"s) you would identify as not being a senior. Heck, at 75 I still have trouble with people calling me a senior or vulnerable. We have all heard it before, hindsight is 20/20. It's easy for us to look at where we are and take shots at those that made the decisions to lockdown because we don't shoulder the responsibility. In six months hindsight will again lead the discussion and if those with the responsibility don't make the call that agrees with our bias and agenda, we will call for them to be fired also.

the unknown is how bad this could have been without stay at home and distancing. I have heard all along it will be easy to forget the reason for what we were asked to do is to minimize the cases. As far back as the black pleasure people have been staying home and distancing when possible.

Hindsight could go either way. A lot more or some more sick/dying. But either way more!!

I have been lucky enough to not have illness in my family. Ask someone who did. Different response I would think.

This is not hindsight for everybody. Meet Dr. Knut M. Wittkowski, PhD, ScD, who headed the Department Biostatistics, Epidemiology & Research Design at Rockefeller University in New York for 20 years. He looked into the claim that people were making that in China and in South Korea, social distancing had successfully helped to control the epidemic. He went through the data and found out that social distancing, isolation and lockdown measures were not put in place until well after the peak of the epidemic in those countries.
This hinted to the idea that herd immunity, not lockdown, was responsible for the already declining number of cases and deaths in those countries.

Dr Wittkowski emphasized that social distancing and lockdown measures were preventing herd immunity in the United States, and as a result there might be a ‘second wave’ that will come not long after lockdown measures ease. Of course, this second wave will mostly likely be attributed to lifting lockdown measures, when, according to Wittkowski, it will be a result of preventing herd immunity due to lockdown measures.

According to Wittkowski, lockdown measures should have never been put in place and isolation and quarantine measures should have only been put into place among the elderly, in long term care facilities and among people who are immune compromised while others ‘work’ to kill the virus by creating herd immunity. According to him, by doing what we have been doing we’re actually putting the elderly, and have put the elderly, in a worse off position.

Sweden is an example of this approach.

Dr Wittkowski was saying this in March, when lockdowns were first being considered. He had a video on all this on YouTube, watched by millions, which was censored and removed by YouTube, no reason given but probably because they thought it was misinformation.

It's pretty sad when one of the few scientists who actually had it right gets censored.

:thumbup:

Yes, they've got us right where they want us.

It's amazing, the CDC drops the overall death rate to 0.26 and we're asking for permission to get a haircut.

There does seem to be an attenuating force at work. The CDC published on April 13 that infection by touching a surface or object is not likely, but this information wasn't disseminated very widely for some reason (although I posted here somewhere in hopes that people might worry less).

How Coronavirus Spreads | CDC

Then the CDC reissued this information this past week and sure enough, now it's getting media attention:

Coronavirus 'does not spread easily' on surfaces or objects, CDC says
https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...ebsite-states/
CDC: Coronavirus ‘does not spread easily’ from contaminated surfaces – BGR

Here is a quote from the man responsible for the eradication of smallpox. He died a few years ago, so he was speaking generally, not in regard to our current situation. Very prescient.

Donald A. Henderson, MD…
“ The interest in quarantine reflects the views and conditions prevalent more than 50 years ago, when much less was known about the epidemiology of infectious diseases and when there was far less international and domestic travel in a less densely populated world.

It is difficult to identify circumstances in the past half-century when large-scale quarantine has been effectively used in the control of any disease. The negative consequences of large-scale quarantine are so extreme (forced confinement of sick people with the well; complete restriction of movement of large populations; difficulty in getting critical supplies, medicines, and food to people inside the quarantine zone) that this mitigation measure should be eliminated from serious consideration.”

- Disease Mitigation Measures in the Control of Pandemic Influenza (2006)

Still going to be way over 100,000 deaths - anyone you know??

Most estimates in beginning were not expecting us to be as smart and stay at home.

bingo! could not agree more.

Very interesting thanks for sharing

Quite a few relatives did come down with the virus but fortunately they all recovered.

How many people were not able to go to the DR and get diagnosed for something that was brewing. How many families were destroyed due to money problems caused by the shutdown.

No easy or simple answer.

Not only that - But how many Women, Children and even Men are physical and verbal abused with this long lock down....
- Care to buy another bottle of Rum, the AA is going to be pack after this is over....

So much information. Mostly different. What to believe? Just be careful out there.

Virus life on Surfaces
 

Thank you for the links,
Here is an outstanding question posed on the Washington Post site:

"""We have been told not to be concerned by potential food contamination--what we eat goes into the stomach acid and is killed. But food passes through the mouth.
What is the difference between contaminated fingers in the mouth (might catch the virus) and contaminated food in the mouth (won't catch the virus)?"""

""" if the face, mouth, nose or eyes are touched by contaminated hands, how is the virus able to get into the lungs? """

I wonder if anyone has an answer for this ?

Suspose the difference is the virus needs to enter the respiratory system. So as long as you don't enhale your food, the risk is low.

There is an exposure time element also, you need to enhale enough virus to initiate an infection.

I'm wondering is this variability could be why some people don't get very sick vs very sick..

e.g. short exposure time results in more or less a self vaccination...

These are good questions. I could not find anything on the internet that identifies inhalation only. Has anyone been able to find anything that pinpoints inhalation only?

I agree it doesn't make sense that eating food is never risky but touching your mouth is.

As for the eyes, here's an excellent article that downplays the risk to the eyes.

Can You Catch Coronavirus Through The Eyes? Will Goggles Reduce The Risk? : Goats and Soda : NPR

[QUOTE=LiverpoolWalrus;1771188]These are good questions. I could not find anything on the internet that identifies inhalation only. Has anyone been able to find anything that pinpoints inhalation only?
/QUOTE]

It seems logical that it is only transmitted thru inhalation.
In the beginning, i thought it was transferred by touch, then into your mouth,nose or eyes.

The referenced PBS articles says """But to infect you via your eyes, the virus would have to penetrate your eyes' mucous membrane, be washed by tears behind your cheeks into your nasal cavity, and then flow from the nose into your throat. "It's a more circuitous route," says Steinemann."""
Huh?, Into your throat... so just swallow.

So, do i still need to leave my Amazon packages in the garage for a week before i touch them. Do i still need to unpack my groceries in the garage and wipe them down with clorox wipes?
Something is missing, but i can't figure it out. Can that little germ crawl down my windpipe if i don't swallow fast enough?

FINALLY! Someone posted what needs to be said!

and a lot of those numbers were inaccurately stated as covid-19 deaths

Seems there is a great amount of self appointed experts on this virus, and the results of the world wide pandemic. Experts pick and choose what to post,
AND believe.

They are lacking context and some are just not true.

Not noted in this post is that Rockefeller Univ has disowned his statements, and that YouTube issued clear statements on why the video was taken down..

I offer no oipinion because I know nothing about the medical field, but each post, including those ipuntrue are investigated by me and if you follow closely....there is an overriding motivation for this stuff, and it is not based on the Corona Virus, but on a subject we cannot discuss on this forum.

All can certainly have an opinion, but be honest about the motivation and source of information.

Frankly, there have been a few very false claims about Dr Fauci for example on this forum, and again let the P arena out of this.

There are things that can be discussed, and hopefully WILL be discussed once our country hopefully rebounds from this thing.

Usually, in our country, when we are under duress we gather together to solidify our resolve to fight whatever the foe might be. In this case, we are being forced to pick sides for all the wrong reasons.

Over 93,000 people died since the middle of March this year WITH Covid-19 in this country.

Fixed it for you.

Dr. Birx: Unlike Some Countries, "If Someone Dies With COVID-19 We Are Counting That As A COVID-19 Death"

Perfectly stated. :thumbup:

In the state of Florida, 85% of all Covid-19 deaths were individuals 65 and up.

The latest data in Florida by age group for Covid-19 deaths:

0-4. 0%
5-14. 0%
15-24. 0%
25-34. 1%
35-44. 2%
45-54. 4%
55-64. 9%
65-74. 21%
75-84. 30%
85+. 34%

Nobody is "forcing" me (we) to do squat. I'm a grownup, and fairly intelligent where I can weigh all the information that is spewed from all sources, and I am perfectly able to make my own decisions accordingly.
Steve

This will go down in history as the greatest overreaction. Hopefully, never to be repeated.

FACTCHECK Dr Wittkowski's strategy was not let it rip until herd immunity is reached, which you would know if you read what I posted about his theory carefully. He said lockdowns for everybody are not necessary, but advisable for nursing homes and the elderly. Why crash your economy when 50% of your deaths are from nursing homes and 80% of total deaths are aged 65 plus. Why lockdown businesses and younger healthier workers when the risk of dying is less than from pneumonia or the flu?

I think I may do a thread comparing the two strategies. :icon_wink:

I was quite upfront, told you Dr Wittkowski's background, told you his video was censored by YouTube for "misinformation" which they defined later. There are many scientists that agree or disagree with his thoughts. Do I need to list 1000s of opinions pro or con every time I post something? I'll do that when you do. :a040:

PS 1000s and 1000s of scientists use twitter and youtube, share their thoughts and scientific papers. Reporters also use twitter extensively, if you follow the right ones, you can almost always tell what stories will be on the evening news. Just because you use them to watch cartoons or be entertained does not mean everyone else is doing the same. Biased censorship and fact checking goes on all the time, perhaps you can't see this because of your own personal bias. Removing a scientist's video because you disagree with it is censorship, period.

PPS I compare Einstein to any scientist who, after being ridiculed and censored, turns out to be right.