Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 1794128)

Originally Posted by golfing eagles


Disagree with this statement. FL never had a first wave like the northeast due to the seasonal activity differences. With the virus spread primarily indoors, in the northeast, Feb/Mar/Apr were relatively cold monthly, and people were aggregating indoors and spread the virus. At that time, in FL, activities were mostly outside with little spread. Now in the north, there is little indoor activities and mostly outdoor activities, where the spread is reduced. Down here, people are now migrating indoors for air conditioning, as its very hot outside, which promotes spread of the virus. Hat tip Coachk for picking up on that subtle point by Desantis this afternoon.

So, that is why the South has not been as infected as the North over the same time period, but the behaviors are reversing and the South is spreading due to more indoor activities to escape the heat. So this surge is effectively the south's first wave, which makes the south luckier in that the more deadly virus which kills its host and has a shorter life span, has a faster diminishing R0, and not as prevalent and the less deadly or milder is the current most persistent virus.

However, Friday, Fauci also said that this type of virus with such large variation of outcomes, has never been seen before in infectious disease studies. So don't assume that there are any guarantees of simple or safe outcomes just because the average age of infections is trending towards the average age of the population, the only assumption is better treatments for most serious shorter hospital stays. Apparent mild cases are still ending up dead at home.

And these statements are not paranoia, just data points and analysis from individual outcomes, and medical observations and analysis, as reported in a hospital setting by Coachk, who reviews individual deaths many times a week for statutory reporting. And CoachK listens in every morning on senior staff conference calls at the medical center, discussing all aspects of the hospital current daily status and updates.

sportsguy

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 1794128)

Originally Posted by golfing eagles


Disagree with this statement. FL never had a first wave like the northeast due to the seasonal activity differences. With the virus spread primarily indoors, in the northeast, Feb/Mar/Apr were relatively cold monthly, and people were aggregating indoors and spread the virus. At that time, in FL, activities were mostly outside with little spread. Now in the north, there is little indoor activities and mostly outdoor activities, where the spread is reduced. Down here, people are now migrating indoors for air conditioning, as its very hot outside, which promotes spread of the virus. Hat tip Coachk for picking up on that subtle point by Desantis this afternoon.

So, that is why the South has not been as infected as the North over the same time period, but the behaviors are reversing and the South is spreading due to more indoor activities to escape the heat. So this surge is effectively the south's first wave, which makes the south luckier in that the more deadly virus which kills its host and has a shorter life span, has a faster diminishing R0, and not as prevalent and the less deadly or milder is the current most persistent virus.

However, Friday, Fauci also said that this type of virus with such large variation of outcomes, has never been seen before in infectious disease studies. So don't assume that there are any guarantees of simple or safe outcomes just because the average age of infections is trending towards the average age of the population, the only assumption is better treatments for most serious shorter hospital stays. Apparent mild cases are still ending up dead at home.

And these statements are not paranoia, just data points and analysis from individual outcomes, and medical observations and analysis, as reported in a hospital setting by Coachk, who reviews individual deaths many times a week for statutory reporting. And CoachK listens in every morning on senior staff conference calls at the medical center, discussing all aspects of the hospital current daily status and updates.

sportsguy

Originally Posted by charlieo1126@gmail.com (Post 1794322)

hmmm outside bars, boating, golf,beaches , malls , peace demonstrations , what indoor activities are we talking about even here in the villages many of us are active outside all day

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 1794485)

And there goes the younger narrative:
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
still the first wave. . .

interesting how links now may or may not show up properly. here is the url without the linking, which was showing up and then disappeared. . . so the bloomberg link inserted the Are you a robot after I saved. . but the link should still work. . .

sportsguy

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 1794128)

Originally Posted by golfing eagles


Disagree with this statement. FL never had a first wave like the northeast due to the seasonal activity differences. With the virus spread primarily indoors, in the northeast, Feb/Mar/Apr were relatively cold monthly, and people were aggregating indoors and spread the virus. At that time, in FL, activities were mostly outside with little spread. Now in the north, there is little indoor activities and mostly outdoor activities, where the spread is reduced. Down here, people are now migrating indoors for air conditioning, as its very hot outside, which promotes spread of the virus. Hat tip Coachk for picking up on that subtle point by Desantis this afternoon.

So, that is why the South has not been as infected as the North over the same time period, but the behaviors are reversing and the South is spreading due to more indoor activities to escape the heat. So this surge is effectively the south's first wave, which makes the south luckier in that the more deadly virus which kills its host and has a shorter life span, has a faster diminishing R0, and not as prevalent and the less deadly or milder is the current most persistent virus.

However, Friday, Fauci also said that this type of virus with such large variation of outcomes, has never been seen before in infectious disease studies. So don't assume that there are any guarantees of simple or safe outcomes just because the average age of infections is trending towards the average age of the population, the only assumption is better treatments for most serious shorter hospital stays. Apparent mild cases are still ending up dead at home.

And these statements are not paranoia, just data points and analysis from individual outcomes, and medical observations and analysis, as reported in a hospital setting by Coachk, who reviews individual deaths many times a week for statutory reporting. And CoachK listens in every morning on senior staff conference calls at the medical center, discussing all aspects of the hospital current daily status and updates.

sportsguy

Originally Posted by Dana1963 (Post 1794993)

It’s been over 1 month since demonstrations/riots the protesting cities are not showing the spikes we are seeing in Az, Tx Fl. Here in the Villages we survived about 60 days with closures. We are now open and many idiots dropped their guard what they have learned and are infected. All that was suggested social distancing wear a mask BUT to many here it was a joke.

Originally Posted by CoachKandSportsguy (Post 1794508)

As far as who publishes what statistics, there are multiple interpretations of data, analytics and statistics. . . always the ability to segregate and twist the data to tell a narrative. There are also biases with any and every commercial enterprise. . I have spend too many years in corporate america watching the machine make saugage, so assume that there are commercial reasons for not publishing data, and assume that the publishers don't want a perceived outcome or a responsibility for the article.

The worst are the stock market explanations for why the market goes up or down in any particular day. I have a predictive model which identified particular days which go up and then which go down, regardless of the news. So when the prediction comes true as in the pattern has repeated the same way for 20 years, and the narrative is different every time, why do really listen to the publicized reasons?

Likewise, having been an insider in several companies, and having worked on valuation of companies for buying and selling, what the general public hears or reads is usually only a very small piece of the reality inside. So unless you have "reliable" insider information, which is not illegal, then you really are only getting a desired narrative. Same with medical narratives, same with corporate marketing narratives, same with financial results narratives, same with political narratives.

Best to work on one's handicap instead of relying on commercial enterprise news.

sportsguy

Originally Posted by Irishmen (Post 1795067)

In the beautifully safe and lovely cities, health workers were specifically instructed under penalty of termination not to reveal riot and protest participation. Fake test give fake results.

Originally Posted by Beyond The Wall (Post 1794941)

Fauci has been right less then 50% of time. Not creditable . Neither are CDC and WHO. Inside spread is valid. However rioting and protesting were DEFINITELY trigger points. Data showing that you can not stop the spread, just try to control rate.
As aside, King Cuomo is an ass! Just saying

Originally Posted by charlieo1126@gmail.com (Post 1795343)

you got this information , they must have more fairytales to share

Originally Posted by charlieo1126@gmail.com (Post 1795343)

you got this information , they must have more fairytales to share

Originally Posted by graciegirl (Post 1795645)

I think Governor Cuomo did a pretty good job and the only error I can see is directing convalescent cases toward convalescent centers. I also think Ohio's governor did a good job despite opposition from several areas. I think Dr. Fauci is the bomb. He is a smart and diplomatic man who has faced extremely unusual resistance from what a year ago I would have considered surprising areas.

Not all wisdom on this subject rests in one area and really, it is ALL mostly common sense and self control.

We all know that shutting down people, shuts down the economy which is the life blood of people and their bread and butter and their shelter and the entire structure of society. We are as a country, between a rock and a hard place and we olders are arguably in the best position to choose safety, IF WE WANT TO.

People who help us and hindered us have seats on both sides of the aisle. I think science trumps all. It is a little iddy biddy bug and it's killing us and many are letting it.

Originally Posted by Joelack99 (Post 1794329)

Yes, this is the middle of the first wave.

What has become apparent is that transmission rates are different depending on how people act. If we continue to act as we have been, the virus will be totally out of control, much like a forest fire, and will eventually burn out (assuming immunity you get from surviving it lasts for awhile, NOT proven,) but do terrible damage (read many will die) in the process. Not paranoia, math.

The “reproductive rate” of the virus is between 2.5 and 6 if you do nothing, meaning each infected person will infect that many more people. At R0=1, the epidemic doesn’t grow or shrink, so we have to do whatever it takes to reduce that number. Cloth masks are ~60% effective, essential but not good enough by itself. (2.5 times .6 is still >1)

Social distancing improves this, so if most people wear masks, the R0 rate can be brought below 1, according to those pesky scientists who spend their entire lives studying these things. This is the only way we get our epidemic in control. The math is simple and clear.

Wear the mask. Socially distance. Be patient. If the outbreak is bad enough, stay home, no matter how much you hate it.

The alternative is really, really, ugly.