We may reach herd immunity sooner than you think
 

Some new studies give some signs for hope that this pandemic may run out of steam sooner than we think. But first a couple of graphs.
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Sweden vs USA, deaths per million (Sweden = Black USA = Red)​
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Sweden vs USA cases per million​
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Both deaths and cases per million look very similar when graphed. Sweden did not lock down economy, close schools, use masks while most of the USA did. Sweden did advise citizens to social distance, but nothing like the shelter at home guidelines issued in USA. Sweden's death rate per million is slightly higher than USA, but the graphs show a very similar rise to a peak and then fall. Cases per day rose quickly in both countries, then flatten and both showing a recent rise. But deaths are falling in both countries, not following the recent rise in cases. (The blip you see in Sweden recent deaths was caused by them adding some covid probable deaths in late June) ​
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The reason deaths do not seem to be rising is probably the same for both countries, the new cases being found are mostly younger and asymptomatic, not tested before and in an age group that does not die from the virus frequently.​
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Anyway, the graphs and data show something is at work here and it doesn't have much to do with lockdowns etc.​
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Now lets look at Florida vs New York.​
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Florida vs New York daily deaths (NY = Red FL = Green)​
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Boy we sure did flatten that curve huh? Good job Florida!​
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Florida vs New York daily new cases​
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Wait a minute! Why are new cases in NY going down while ours are going up? NY opened up a month ago, they had huge Floyd protests there too. Maybe they are just better at reopening than we are, or maybe their protesters and a huge percentage of New Yorkers are immune.​
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Recently CDC Director Redfield said this: "Our best estimate right now is that for every case that's reported, there actually are 10 other infections," Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the CDC, said on a call with reporters Thursday.​
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OK, so NYC has had 212,000 confirmed cases times 10 = 2,120,000 actual cases if CDC correct. Population of NYC is 8 million or so, so that's about 25% of the population that are immune.​
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Several new studies have found another kind of immunity from the virus different from antibodies. New research from Karolinska Institutet and Karolinska University Hospital shows that many people with mild or asymptomatic COVID-19 demonstrate so-called T-cell-mediated immunity to the new coronavirus, even if they have not tested positively for antibodies. According to the researchers, this means that public immunity is probably higher than antibody tests suggest. Our results indicate that roughly twice as many people have developed T-cell immunity compared with those who we can detect antibodies in.”

So some people have such strong T cells that they fight off the virus without producing antibodies. Could be from exposure to other coronaviruses like the common cold. This study estimates there are twice as many T cell immune individuals as there are that have antibodies.

So now you can estimate that over 4 million New York City people would either have antibodies or T cell immunity. That's 50% of the population. Is that enough for herd immunity? It sure looks like it in their graph showing new case numbers dwindling down pretty rapidly.

A team at Stanford lead by Nobel Laureate Michael Levitt have been studying data from countries all over the world and think the virus begins to burn out and run out of hosts when infected individuals + asymptomatics reach a certain threshold. Levitt and colleagues think that the existence of large numbers of invisible cases of individuals who are asymptomatic and are not counted as confirmed cases may explain the non exponential behavior of the pandemic, the known cases can't find new people to infect because the invisible cases have already done so.

Basically, Levitt is saying that the various regions his team are tracking are reaching herd immunity faster and at lower levels than many epidemiologists think likely (60-70%)

"I personally think it's less than 30%" said Levitt.

A recent model by MIT predicts that absent a vaccine, the pandemic will grind on until next spring and that Global cases will rise to 249 million with deaths rising to 1.75 million in the 84 countries they survey.

I hope the Stanford guy is right. :) New York City data looks like he may be.

Or maybe not!
 

The problem with this is that there is no reason to believe that herd immunity to COVID-19 can be achieved, at all. Some people have recovered and become infected again. I love data and statistics but a state like NY has had two very distinct experiences with the virus (upstate vs. downstate) and sometimes the data is skewed when viewed at a macro-level, rather than at a micro-level.

NY City is a high-density area that was hit with the virus fairly early on and didn't have as much time to ramp up. Few aspects of life in NYC are private: transportation, shopping, apartment living, etc...Most rely on public systems where everyone is breathing the exhaled air of someone else. There also wasn't a lot known about the characteristics of the virus when NYC was hit. NYC absolutely had to shut down when it did in order to stem the tide. For the purposes of comparison, we should probably compare the data from Miami and NYC. However, those cities are in very different phases of the virus. NYC does not seem to be in an upswing, but Miami seems to be.

I live in a city in Central NY State. Our experience with COVID-19 was entirely different from that of NYC, but we certainly didn't get through it unscathed. We wear our masks (for the most part ) and practice social distancing but we still get hotspots when people decide that the mask mandate doesn't apply to them or decide that it is too onerous to comply for one reason or another. We seem to see our greatest outbreaks in manufacturing and warehousing facilities.

My concern with Florida is the sheer number of seniors and people with underlying health conditions juxtaposed against the numbers of people who refuse to wear a mask and/or practice social distancing. Right now, Florida is on the upswing and we don't know how high it will swing nor how many it will take out. The good news is that we have learned things about the virus as it has raged through other nations, states and communities. This has led to slightly better outcomes for patients battling COVID-19 in places like Florida and Texas.

In Florida, the problem with herd immunity (if it's even achievable) is that far too many of the herd are older and in failing health. To achieve it, we will likely lose a large portion of that subset within our herd.

Great info. Thanks for posting!

Lets start with your opening statement.

The problem with this is that there is no reason to believe that herd immunity to COVID-19 can be achieved, at all. Some people have recovered and become infected again

That's old news, and proven false by recent studies. They have found that the people who tested "positive" again just had fragments of dead virus in their system, which fooled the test. Here's just one of many.

Scientists from the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention studied 285 Covid-19 survivors who had tested positive for the coronavirus after their illness had apparently resolved, as indicated by a previous negative test result. The so-called re-positive patients weren’t found to have spread any lingering infection, and virus samples collected from them couldn’t be grown in culture, indicating the patients were shedding non-infectious or dead virus particles.

All the latest studies show that almost everyone who recovers from covid 19 develops antibodies to the disease. Antibodies to SARS were found to be good for 2 years. (one reason it never came back) Then you have the t-cell immunes, who fight off the virus with their immune system. You have to test specifically for T-cell immunity, as it does not show up in an antibody test.

New York and Florida are very similar in size, population, and population density. New York has one huge city, while Florida has 3 medium size cities that add up to one NYC.
The purpose in comparing the two in deaths and cases is not about saying who did a better job. When you look at the comparison in new cases, and how New York had a huge amount that peaked and then has fallen to very low numbers, without a spike in new cases, you wonder why this is. The only thing I can conclude from that data is that NY has achieved a high enough level of immunity that the virus has run out of easy targets. Florida has not attained this level yet, so we got a spike after protests and reopening.

NYC was hit first, seeded heavily from European travelers. By the time they locked down it was too far gone. They had s few hundred confirmed cases and probably several thousand asymptomatics and very mild cases that spread the virus all over the city. Basically, they ran a herd immunity test case without knowing it.

Another thing Sweden and the US have in common: neither country’s citizens are allowed into most European countries without a two week quarantine. Norway and Denmark do not want Swedes entering their countries. Of course, at present, if you want to visit Maine, you have to quarantine for two weeks. I was planning to go there this summer. But now I can’t.

As for “herd immunity,” we will eventually find out, I guess, but it will take time, and it will be subject to waiting changes in recommendations as new information comes out. Meanwhile, I’d rather not be one of those who gets the virus, so I’ll keep on wearing my mask. It’s tough to not know the answers to everything from the beginning, but that’s not how science works.

I tested Michael Levitt's theory that saturation to achieve herd immunity is as low as 30%

I multiplied each state's confirmed cases by 10 for asymptomatics, and then doubled that number for T-cell immune response to get a total of visible and invisible cases.

Then I divided that number by each state's population to get covid 19 saturation percentages.

3 states with highest spikes in new cases

Florida 15% saturation level
Texas 12%
California 7%

3 States with no spikes in new cases

New York 41% saturation level
New Jersey 38%
Massachusetts 31%

I'm starting to think Michael Levitt of Stanford is a very smart guy who deserved every bit of his Nobel Prize.

The virus is clearly weakening, too. The cloth masks, bandanas, scarves and dust masks that people are wearing only offer very minimal protection. If this virus was that deadly we would know it. People would be dropping like flies and if that was happening no one would have to order them to stay inside of their houses.

This has been one of the most aggravating, ridiculous, unscientific and costly societal jokes that has ever happened in this country if not the world.

Yes, it's a giant clusterfark. Fauci has been a disaster and is a prime example of the Dilbert Principle. Just one 180 degree flip flop after another. You name it, he's been wrong on it. Masks, travel bans, asymptomatic cases etc etc

They knew everything they needed to know back in February after analyzing the Diamond Princess outbreak, contagion vectors, infection rates, asymptomatic cases, death rates, etc

Nobel Prize Winning Professor Explains How 'Scientists Have Failed' Throughout COVID-19 Pandemic - Big League Politics

Here's a nifty graph showing the surge in Florida while death rates plummet.

Nobody is interested in the facts though. That's the part that is so incredibly frustrating and stupid about this thing.

I am beginning to think that people are no longer capable of using critical thinking skills. If some "expert" told them to dive lemming like off of a cliff they would do it.

Suggest you revisit in 3-4 weeks. Takes at least that long for the hospitalizations and then deaths to show. The deaths that are reported now are for infections before the current spike.

Good luck and stay safe until then.

Florida surge started early June, almost 1 month ago. CDC puts time from symptoms to death at average of 14 days.

This chart graphs new cases vs deaths offset by 14, 21, and 28 days

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Well done and well written. Thank you.

Compare apples to apples Sweden’s population 10 million us has 330 million and is not as densely populated.

The graphs comparing the two are cases and deaths per million residents.

Sweden percentage of population living in urban areas is 87%. USA is 80% urban population.

Virus infects people the same way all over the world.

Actually, Sweden’s per capita death rate from covid-19 is higher than the US, 36 per 100K versus 27 in the US.

Why Sweden’s COVID-19 Strategy Can’t Work in the U.S.:
Why Sweden'''s COVID-19 Strategy Can'''t Work in the U.S.

If the link doen’t come through just Google “ Why Sweden’s COVID-19 Strategy Can’t Work in the U.S.”

I’ll leave it to you to you to become an infected individual in the herd that will supposedly flatten the curve. For me, at my age and condition, infection would almost certainly be the end-of-the-line. I’ll leave it to you young-uns to slow down the virus that threatens the rest of us. Go for it!

Actually, I noted this in the original post. The point in comparing the two countries is that both deaths and cases follow the exact same curve. One had lockdowns, masks etc and one didn't. This shows that something else is at work.

People are dropping like flies but so far lots of people are refusing to admit it...or admit to their mortality. In the last 24 hours the number of reported cases increased by 5% in Florida. And that daily rate is increasing.

The pandemic has gotten beyond us as the result of some people placing economics over science. I say “some people” because it doesn’t take very many to spread and re-spread a highly contagious virus like COVID-19.

excellent graph
 

This graph is excellent and shows how even tho cases are going up, deaths are going down. I like the the fact that the deaths offset by 14 thru 28 days still arrive at about the same low level. Perhaps the virus is dying out.

No, they are not dropping like flies. Do you not see the chart above for Florida? Cases are going up but they are young people who don't die. Every time I make a post like this I try to say cases going up, deaths going down, but old people should not drop their guard because the young and asymptomatic can infect you.

Then I get a comment like "enjoy your ventilator" :ohdear:

Gottlieb is saying ... end of the year .... not sure how those numbers work but he's been right on about this since January - so there is some hope.

So many of these theories and predictions are from reported numbers that are being applied to population numbers. DO THE MATH???

Herein lies the fallacies of these predictions. Why? Because we are individuals with different immunities and resistance to various diseases or sickness. The health of each person is different....the activities and even personal hygiene practices are different.

So how can a reasonable person believe in these predictions? I think that things can be generalized, but accuracy??

Take everything with a grain of salt. Just because you heard it on the news or saw it on the internet, ........ There are so many people out there who are INCAPABLE of a cohesive, independent thought.
'Nuff said.

The death count from the Red Wuhan Virus should also include those caused by the draconian measures taken to slow the spread including increased drug overdoses, suicides, delayed or cancelled medical treatments, loss of medical insurance, exploding government debt and the collapse of our GDP.

It is pretty selfish to only be concerned about the most direct threat to your health while ignoring the consequences to others from the government mandated retardation of our economy and liberties.

Great leaders such as our Governor understand this and is constantly evaluating all of the data with an holistic approach. That is why we have had so much more success in protecting the most vulnerable unlike in New York where an incompetent Governor committed manslaughter on a grand scale by forcing infected patients back into nursing homes.

It is right that herd immunity can only really be achieved if you cannot get it again and some people have gotten it again. I don’t really want to be one of those sacrificed people nor do I want my friends and family to be one.

I don't think that was manslaughter. That would be akin to someone putting a bomb in a nursing home and then acting all innocent and surprised when the bomb went off and killed people.

See post #4, the reinfection reports have been proven false by several newer studies.

Some folks do not need to worry about COVID19 killing them. Stress is going to be what kills them. I do not know anyone that is sick or caught it. I do not know of any reports of anyone even near me catching it. And I believe that if I do catch it by some fluke, I will survive it. I have never had the flu and never had the flu shot. I can't remember the last time I had a cold. So, I do not plan to live the last decade or two of my life worrying about what MIGHT happen. If a store says I have to wear a mask, I do it. I don't do it because I am afraid. I also pick up cucumbers, tomatoes and fruit to inspect it before purchasing. I have always washed produce when I get home. We learned that when living overseas. Some folks on here ARE going to die from COVID19. It will be COVID 19 that they are stressing about when their heart bursts and they fall over. It won't be an infection that gets them. Every person I know of that has thought they had the virus, ended up testing negative. Some folks get sick and it may not be virus related.
I hope they will come up with a vaccine for the virus soon, but I have no intention of getting it. I will leave it for those less healthy folks to submit to.
Like I said before, wear your mask if you wish....or not. Makes no difference to me. Placebos do work for some folks, and that is fine with me. But, there are some that will complain no matter what you do to suit their fancy. I'd rather live a shorter happy life than live a long miserable life like some. Pardon me while I go sniff some parsley and sample a few cherries. Don't worry, I'll wash my hands when I get home. :duck::)

Covid19 information
 

Unfortunately, the only thing we know for sure about coronavirus and Covid19 is that we really don't know anything yet. There are new studies constantly being published, usually not peer-reviewed, and many are contradictory. Each person must make their own evaluation, hopefully, based on scientific information, but we should all be very cognizant of the welfare of others as well as ourselves, and no one is harmed by taking extra precautions.

I agree with you. I'd be extra careful though, they think the T-cell immunity that some have (possibly double the number of asymptomatics) comes from immunity systems that have previously been exposed to coronaviruses like the common cold.

:thumbup:

I have been saying herd immunity is the answer since the begining.

I think a lot of people hear the words herd immunity and think that means everyone must catch the disease and they say no way. The herd immunity threshold depends on a lot of factors like infection vectors, infection rate, death rate, length of infectious periods etc etc If herd immunity threshold is 30% for a particular virus, then only 30% is required to stop the virus. The amount of confirmed cases, plus asymptomatics, plus T cell immunities can be used to calculate total number of cases as I did upthread for various states. I can post a few scientific studies on how they actually estimate HIT but they are very complicated. It's easier to look at data graphs to see what has actually happened.

New York was the epicenter for covid 19 with huge amounts of cases and deaths, about 50% of these in New York City. Most regions of New York started reopening May 15 and are now in the final stages of reopening. New York City reopened starting June 7 and starts Phase 3 (out of 4) tomorrow.

Florida flattened the curve very well, with far fewer cases and deaths than New York. Our death totals are still going down, but new cases are surging. Florida started Phase 1 reopening on May 4. Various parts of the state are in more advanced Phases of reopening, with Miami Dade still having more restrictions.

So both States have been reopening for similar amounts of time, both states had huge Floyd protests, but Florida has a huge spike in new cases and New York has no spike.

The only thing that I can conclude from this is that New York has reached a herd immunity threshold while Florida has not.

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I don't understand the graph. You didn't post a link to where you found it. What is the actual data, not offset data? Why did the author of this graph offset death by 7 to 28 days, moving the recorded death to later than it occurred or was reported? Is the death date the date of death or the date it was entered into the system. This is not a trivial issue. Florida has been having over 40 new deaths a day for a couple weeks. This upswing is not shown on the chart you present because deaths are not being shown. You know if you plot the deaths 180 days offset the death line would be at zero. It would even look better.

A chart https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/...avirus-battle/ with a line for past 7 days average looks entirely different than the one you presented. And deaths in Florida from Covid seem to be taking days to weeks to show up in the data. The reports are lagging well behind the death date.

It is certainly true that the improved availability of testing is finding many many more people with less severe symptoms. I don't see any data reporting the symptom profile of those being tested but I doubt that 100,000 people with NO symptoms are being tested daily in Florida. And it is also true that with the average age of people having positive tests being in the 30s for several weeks, the final severity of illness is lower, for some, for most, but not for all.

I forget where I got that chart. Since the CDC puts average time to death from positive test or symptoms from 14 to 28 days, the idea of the chart is to sync new cases with deaths reported which always lag. Average deaths in Florida per day have been about 40 since early May when they peaked. But the IFR is dropping because of the huge surge in new cases. If their is a small uptick it wouldn't surpise me because even though the median age of new cases has dropped 20-25 years, there are bound to be some in that category who have covid susceptible pre existing conditions, plus they might infect some of the elderly who are no venturing out more. But I don't expect we will have a huge surge in new deaths.

The bigger question is, why does New York, which started reopening only 2-3 weeks after Florida, and also had huge protests of shouting protesters walking shoulder to shoulder, have a new case count that is dropping to zero? I think they have reached herd immunity threshold, and so do some very smart scientists.

See post #33

You can also see the same thing in Sweden, no lockdown, no masks, but death rate is plummeting.

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Not really.......

Can You Get Covid-19 Twice? An Infectious Disease Doctor Explores The Possibility

This article from MIT is only a few days old and supports what I stated about the possibility that herd immunity might not be achievable.

From the article:

How long does immunity to covid-19 last after infection? We really have no idea yet. There have been sporadic reports of some people in the world coming down with covid-19 twice, and so far it’s unclear why. It’s well documented that other coronavirus infections confer only temporary immunity, sometimes lasting no more than a few months. Covid-19 may follow the same pattern, but it’s too early to tell.

Our biggest questions yet about immunity to covid-19 | MIT Technology Review

A recent study shows that those with Blood Type O do not suffer as much from the virus as other blood types. Another positive point in my favor. Gotta look for the positive things in today's negative news.

Everyday there is something different changes about the virus. Hopefully by November this will be clear to all.

Very interesting and informative. Thanks.