Florida's positive testing rate may not be accurate
 

The percent of positive covid 19 tests for florida has been over 10% for last two weeks with a high 18% on July 8 and a low of 11% yesterday, July 11.

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There is no doubt we have a lot of new cases here. However, the percent positive rate is an important barometer to judge the trends.

In the last few days people who scour the Florida coronavirus websites have noticed something peculiar.

Yesterday, July 11, 333 Florida labs reported 100% positivity on all their tests, which amounts to 3528 positives reported to the state with zero negatives. Another 31 labs reported 90-99% positive tests for a total of 1767 positives and very few negatives. Thats about 50% of all positives for the day. These results are not plausible when you have a statewide average of 10-15% positivity. These results skew the positive rate upward by several percentage points. Something is wrong with their reporting system if so many labs are not reporting their negative test results.

Hopefully some sharp reporters will get on this and try to find out what is happening.

Partial list:

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Not surprising. The numbers have not made a great deal of sense from the get go. I saw on a Facebook group that a nurse sent a couple of swabs that had never been used to a lab for testing and both came back positive. I realize that's just an anecdotal rumor and proof of nothing, but I also tend to believe it could be true, especially after seeing this data.

The more this goes on the more convinced we do not know for sure what is going on

Or dare I say.........believe :duck:

Steve

I’ve been wondering about this for a while regarding the positive test results......

When a person tests positive, they need to be retested a few more times and must have two consecutive negative test results in order to be considered safe to go back out into the community.

Now my question and concern...... each time that SAME person is tested and gets a positive result, is that considered a “new case” for each time a test results in a positive result?

If that is truly the case, the amount of positive “cases” is certainly NOT accurate.

Hope I made my point clear.

Starting to think that if you ask 10 scientists you might get 11 answers.

Also consider..
 

Also, if the same people are being tested multiple times, hospital workers, drs, politicians..., are all of those tests being counted in the total?

Not sure what to believe.

Independent Fl dashboard link.
Experience

From what I understand the numbers are by individuals so if one tests several times, they are considered as one case. They are not reporting on the number of tests done (which is separate report) but on the number of positive cases (people).

I surely hope this is correct. Thank you.

This is from the the Florida State website:

These counts include the number of people for whom the department received PCR or antigen laboratory results by day. People tested on multiple days will be included for each day a new result was received. A person is only counted once for each day they are tested, regardless of whether multiple specimens are tested or multiple results are received.

So if tested several times on same day = one result
If tested on multiple days = multiple results

Crazy crap!
Steve

Yes, but are we not talking about the daily positive cases? Today Florida 15,300 positive cases according to Worldometer. This is how many people tested positive for Covid today. They may have tested positive yesterday too but why would they go again to be tested today? Maybe they didn’t believe the first test?

If this is true, I will NOT believe any of the numbers that are being reported.
If a person is positive on Monday, positive on Tuesday and positive on Wednesday, that should still be ONE CASE and ONE RESULT. It is ONE PERSON, not multiple people.

The cases are correct for each day (assuming institutions report on time) but the daily totals are not necessarily cumulative.

There is a problem in that 100s of Florida labs are only reporting positive tests, not negative tests. This doesn't mean the total for positive tests is inaccurate, it means the percentage of positive test they show every day on the dashboard is inaccurate. If you don't report negative tests, your percentage of positives will be higher than it really is.

Here's a news report from Martin County about this. I saw a similar report from Alachua county last week.

‘Technical issue’ leads to negative coronavirus test underreporting

‘Technical issue’ leads to negative coronavirus test underreporting

It appears that positive test results are automatically transmitted to the state while negative ones have to be entered manually.

I look at the absolute positive numbers, but then I also look at rolling averages, 3 days and 7 days to see the trend - that corrects for institutions not reporting on time.

I've heard posters mention that they have tested multiple times using different testing sites each time they go. I don't know if that would be counted as one individual being tested or 3 separate tests entirely.

3 separate test results, see my previous post.

That is what I suspected. Your posts have been very informative, btw. It's nice to see the numbers so clearly laid out.

From the Florida state report website:

"The percent of positive results ranged from 11.25% to 18.35% over the past 2 weeks and was 11.25% yesterday

This percent is the number of people who test PCR- or antigen-positive for the first time divided by all the people tested that day, excluding people who have previously tested positive."

This seems to indicate that they don't double-count the positives when calculating what they call percent positivity.

I would be interested in any data that's available on how many people don't go through the hassle of getting tested? The news said people are lining up in Orange county at 3am in their cars. Same in Texas. If I was sick but not dying, I wouldn't go through that kind of misery. 5 plus hours in your car in a bad neighborhood. Add heat and humidity with no bathroom and forget it.

I also heard a rumor that a nurse swabbed 4 test in water or something and all 4 test came back positive. I don't remember it very well so it's not a fact by any means.

I assume once school starts we'll see another spike and then the flu season after that.

I know a pregnant nurse and a school teacher and both are very worried about the infection rate. If someone is playing games with these numbers I hope they get busted because that's a special kind of evil.

I agree the numbers aren’t adding up. That’s why I’ve been asking to see the number of neg test vs pos tests. Unless, you know the number of neg tests., verses positive tests, the numbers will not be accurate.

WOW!! Did not know we have so many experts here in Villages who know all about how the numbers get reported.Reading most of the post here, I think most of the folks here think the whole thing is BULL.Just look at the number of folks who do not wear a mask.

Retesting
 

My sister is a DNP. On Friday, we learned that a patient she treated was Covid positive. The same day, a coworker’s granddaughter also tested positive. The potential existed for two exposures. So, she was tested. The results will be back today if Covid positive and a week if negative. If positive, she will be quarantined and tested every 72 hours until she gets a negative result before being able to resume duties at the hospital. The frustrating thing for the medical staff is that they are tested by the state like everyone else which takes them out of service for several days. To be eligible for the 90 minute test, you must be a patient that needs to be admitted to a hospital or a discharged patient that is returning to a group home setting such as a nursing home. The reason health care workers do not have priority is because there are simply not enough of these tests. Of her nursing staff, which is responsible for pre-op, 4 of 8 called in sick as they were waiting on test results. This is the reality.

So, to add to this discussion... I don’t know about the general population, but healthcare workers must be tested multiple times if found positive. Some states may require tests more frequently or perhaps they have access to the 90 minute test. What my sister has found though is that many people are testing positive for having had Covid without symptoms or symptoms so mild they didn’t associate it with Covid and these numbers are exponentially increasing.

Here is a fact....130,000 dead. That's something that should open everyone's eyes. The virus is real..not a hoax.

Are you sure? How many times did they die?

I was in Sam's Club yesterday and very few people were not wearing a mask. I'd say the same holds true for Winn Dixie and Publix where I have been over the past week.

As I look around I see the vast majority of people wearing masks inside of stores.

Really can't believe anything reported by the news. They have an agenda.

More than 11 answers if you ask them again next month.

Even that number is being questioned. I've read that everyone who dies while they have the virus is being counted as a Covid-19 death regardless of the cause of death. A young person that has Covid and was experiencing mild symptoms gets killed in a car accident is counted as a Covid death.

I think that this pandemic is real and very serious, but there are a lot of questions about how a lot of the numbers are calculated.

There is also the problem of politics becoming involved. It is thought to be politically advantageous for some that the numbers are higher, while other's are trying to make it seem like it's not that much of a problem.

I have an uncle that died a few months ago. He went into the hospital for one thing. While he was in rehab, he fell and broke his hip. He evidently developed a mild case of Covid and died a few days later. No autopsy was done but e is listed as a Covid death.

130,000 have died WITH Covid, but how many have died FROM Covid. If you are wondering what constitutes a Covid death:
https://hoiabc.com/2020/04/20/idph-d...re-classified/

Testing LABS
 

There are 307 hospitals with LABS TESTING you are cherry picking 30 LABS.

Huh? 333 labs in Florida reported 100% positive tests, did not report any negatives. I don't know how many labs in Florida process tests, but there are lots of them

So far I have seen two news reports in counties where they have noticed this problem.

COVID test positivity is not a meaningful statistic because not all negatives are reported - Alachua Chronicle

https://www.martin.fl.us/resources/m...data-reporting

It appears that this is a partial report. The number of positive cases is important to know so that they can plan and keep tabs on those infected. There has to be a second chart showing the number of total cases actually tested; without it they can not determine the shape of the curve. It is irresponsible reporting to only show the number of new cases - fear mongering. It is important to know whether the 3,528 cases were out of 10,000 (35%), 30,000 (12%) or 100,000 (3.5%) people tested.

Correct, you can't know the true percentage of positive tests if all negatives are not reported. I don't think this was done intentionally, at least hope not. It appears to be government bureaucracy ineptitude at work. It's not hard to design a system that reports both positive and negative results automatically. Just a few lines of code.

According to Martin County report, negative results must be entered manually.

Well I believe the numbers include people who may have passed from another cause but because they tested positive they are included as covid related.

Testing focused on nursing home populations, residents and care workers. Also, too many stubborn individualists who will not wear masks, keep their distance, and wash their hands.

Over 1/2 million dead babies each and every year. That is also a fact. Facts are not political. Where is the outrage there?

Excuse me while I ignore all the hype (and not become outraged over 130,000 dead) and avail myself of my constitutional rights and go to the beach without a mask and make some Vitamin D.

The following are also facts:

Neither President Trump nor any governor or health official nor any other person elected or not have the authority to override or nullify any portion of the US Constitution regardless of any perceived or actual emergency. To wit:

14th amendment to the US Constitution:

No State shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.

Therefore, there is no authority to force anyone to wear a mask or to fine anyone for failing to do so. Read that again, “no state shall make or enforce any law …”

Moderator: nothing but facts stated here. Some people don't like facts. That does not make them political.

.........and all different!

well, luckily we now have Chuck Woolery to guide us. and yes, that is as sarcastic as I can make it.