Oh Happy Day - I told you so
 

I had 2 titles for this thread, decided just to use them both :icon_wink:

Oh Happy Day is a great song that was used in a great movie about the world's greatest racing horse winning the triple crown - Secretariat. Big Red still has the fastest times ever recorded for all three races, records still standing after 47 years.

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Movie clip:

Secretariat - "O Happy Day " - YouTube

Original by Edwin Hawkins Singers:

NEW * Oh Happy Day Edwin Hawkins Singers {Stereo} - YouTube

When I heard this rendition in the movie, I imagined the lead singer as a male. Turns out it is a female lead singer with slightly deep voice. Doesn't matter, it's a great song.

Secretariat has 1000s of descendants which include two Triple Crown winners, Justify in 2015 and American Pharoah in 2018.

Here's one of the latest, a cute little filly named HOPE. She looks a lot like her great great great great Grandpa.

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So do we have some HOPE in this pandemic? Looks like we do. Brace yourself, there's an "I told you so coming"

Back in the first week of July, when cases were surging here in Florida and panic was being spread, I posted two threads about herd immunity threshold possibly being lower than you might think. Based on work by Nobel Laureate Michael Levitt of Stanford and new research studies showing that large percentages of populations have T cell immunity from the virus, I calculated that new cases in Florida would peak and then start going down before the end of July. I calculated that when Florida reached about 350,000 confirmed positive tests that this would happen. Here are the two threads:

https://www.talkofthevillages.com/fo...y-safe-308745/

https://www.talkofthevillages.com/fo...-think-308570/

So, when did Florida's new case rate start to trend downward? July 18

When did Florida reach total of 350,000 confirmed positive tests? July 19

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Not too shabby don't you think? :icon_wink:

Maybe I am just lucky. Or maybe more people should pay attention. I have gotten a lot of pushback on this low herd immunity threshold idea (not my idea, see Levitt's work) I get called a desperate downplayer, deaths will be on my hands, a paid troll, and get wishes that I enjoy my ventilator all because I tend to pop the panic bubble with science.

Michael Levitt and his team at Stanford started analyzing covid 19 data from the start, including China and the cruise ship Diamond Princess. The Diamond Princess was the perfect floating laboratory for a pandemic. Super high density, restaurants, gyms, bars, pools, stores, common areas etc. When epidemiologists tested everyone on the boat, they found that 20% were infected, about half of these were asymptomatic. They were looking at disease vectors, and since only 20% were infected, they concluded that the ships shared HVAC system did not spread the disease through fine aerosols.

Levitt saw something different. In country after country, regardless of mitigation efforts, when cases reached from 15% to 25% of population (adding in untested but assumed asymptomatics) that the disease seemed to burn out. Cases and deaths went up quickly to a peak and then began to fall in what is called a gompertz curve. Levitt saw that this disease was not exponential, did not infect everyone even in non lockdown countries, and seemed to hit a wall. We can see that this "wall" is holding in many places like Sweden, New York, Italy where there has been no spike of new cases. Many places that were not hard hit at first, like Japan, Phillipines, Australia etc are now seeing a surge of new cases,

Several newer studies on T cells are confirming that there is evidence of that wall existing in 50% to 80% of the population. T cells have memory from previous exposure to common cold coronaviruses and can produce antibodies that work against covid 19. T cell memory of SARS, a previous coronavirus, are still valid after 17 years, so this is a long lasting effect. This is also good news for certain types of vaccines.

T cells found in COVID-19 patients ‘bode well’ for long-term immunity | Science | AAAS

Some of the pushback I have seen on a low herd immunity thresholds are:

1. I don't want to be part of the herd. You don't need to be, when cases reach certain percentage level they start to fall. You don't have to be part of that percentage

2. I heard about people being re-infected. These were faulty tests, they saw dead virus fragments and registered as positive. The CDC currently states that there are no known re-infection cases.

3. Not everybody tested has antibodies. Again, some faulty tests looking for wrong antibodies or not calibrated correctly. Read this article from NY Times (link goes to Times of India because NYT is under subscription firewall, same exact article)

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/77194515.cms

4. Antibodies don't last. This is true, one study I saw said they were still robust after 3 months but doesn't matter, your T cells are like elephants and never forget, they can produce antibodies at will.

5. What if coronavirus mutates? Thankfully, coronaviruses don't mutate a lot, at least in ways that matter for immunity responses. The flu mutates a lot and new strains develop, which is why we need new vaccines every year. T cell immunity for SARS is still good after 17 years.

So it's good news that cases are trending down now, deaths will probably start dropping in a few weeks because of lag factor. Florida Emergency room visits for CLI (covid like illness) are also trending downward so that's good news as well.

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Does this means you should let down your guard? Nope, I plan to continue my modified Howard Hughes lifestyle till end of September. The herd immunity threshold is geographic, the threshold appears to have been reached in Florida hotspot counties but The Villages has had low cases and deaths so far, so keep being safe.

The $64,000 question. Is it going to come back? Hard to say at this point. In places where herd immunity threshold has been reached, it will be hard for virus to gain a foothold, not enough available hosts to create a large outbreak. Today we are seeing surges of cases in places like Japan and Phillippines that previously thought they had it beat. Phillippines has had a very strict lockdown for months and is most mask compliant country in the world.

As a twitter pal says "virus is gonna virus" no matter what we do.

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Thank God or Nature for T cells. Some studies I have read theorize that some of the coronaviruses that cause the common cold were actually pandemics 100s of years ago when we didn't know anything about viruses or vaccines. Our immune systems and T cells adapted and beat them down so that nowadays they are just a nuisance called common colds.

217 views and not on single response!?

My biggest fear for the future is the lack of involvement of the average American in too many issues of significance.....even when anonymous.

So we are to conclude what?

This thread needs to be bumped back to page one.

217 views of what?

Thanks again for your info.

Part of the problem is many of us do not know what to believe at this point.

Not part.....ALL

Our experts, those scientific folks who have spent their life working with such things, who know of what they speak are routinely bashed publicly by those who employ them, with nothing factual....just don't want to hear it.

Then, on forums like this, we have those who share some special interests searching for data to fit.....also joining the bashing.

No, ALL would like to have central information source like we always have had....but alas.....

Undertand that last month all hospitals were told to stop sending data to CDC....and send to a private firm hired by the HHS.

So, whatever you read is filtered quite a bit

That certainly makes it easier to manipulate and suppress facts and the truth for those so inclined to do so. Count me as one of those who won't be surprised to see a magical and significant reduction in the supposed "official" reported Covid cases and deaths, in the very near future.

"But as a global health expert at the university's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, he says he should be able provide much more nuanced answers.

"Why can't we figure out what's contributing to the recent spread? It is very simple," Mokdad said. "No access to data."

https://www.bakersfield.com/ap/news/...42663a4ab.html

LOL There's no mention of Florida in that article. My post is about Florida data.

Dr Deborah Birx on Florida's covid 19 website:

“If you go to the Florida Public Health website on COVID, they’ve been able to show their communities’ cases and tests district by district, county by county, ZIP code by ZIP code,” Birx said. “That’s the kind of knowledge and power we need to put into the hands of American people so that they can see where the virus is, where the cases are, and make decisions.”

The “dashboard” also shows the basic statistics, including the total number of confirmed cases, the death toll and the trend in the past month. But the real power, she said, is in the specificity of the data.

Undertand that last month all hospitals were told to stop sending data to CDC....and send to a private firm hired by the HHS. So, whatever you read is filtered quite a bit

And like I said in earlier threads about that, all states have their own websites, if you want data on a particular state, go to their website, because that's where the federal data comes from whether it is at CDC or HHS websites.

Too funny, good news about Florida's cases trending down and what do they come up with? Conspiracy theories that the data is corrupt.

Also, not one comment so far saying "wow Goodlife, you really made a very accurate prediction about when the new cases surge would start ending"

This is very good news and lends credence to the low herd immunity threshold theory.

Florida will have more deaths, maybe double the total we have now, but we can see some light at the end of the tunnel. If cases go down then so will deaths. Also note that I continue to stress that if you are elderly or have certain conditions, don't let up your guard and stay safe.

And yet some appear to be in denial and want the panic to continue. Why?

The thing we need to remember is that Florida has over 21,000,000 people so 7600 deaths is tragic but not reason for hysteria.

For the conspiracy fear mongers who think information is being withheld.
Put out by FDOH:
ArcGIS Dashboards

Yes, we have one of the best state covid 19 sites in the country. Lots of info and very specific

Our hospitals have also handled the surge nicely, currently state wide we have 17% ICU bed availability, which is completely normal.

Workbook':' Public

You do realize that Ms Brix comments were made on April 20, months before the change in reporting ???

Nothing has changed on Florida's website, still has the same if not more details. The change you keep blabbing about (CDC to HHS) has nothing to do with Florida data. The federal sites just aggregate the state data. When will this fact sink in? The Florida site is run by Florida epidemiologists, the feds have nothing to do with it.

Want accurate hospital data for Florida? Go to this site, run by a Florida state agency. The feds have nothing to do with it.

Workbook':' Public

It’s In the title “happy” nobody has nothing to say about happy.

Every country that had cases of the virus peaked then fell.
Many are now getting a second dose, and numbers rise again, and when it is under control, they will fall again.
Can't see this as earth shattering, or something to brag about regarding predictions.
Seems pretty obvious to me.
Up, then down.
Just like the Stock Market.
Even a dumbo like me can work that out!

Another point of view regarding herd immunity.

Coronavirus: Spanish study casts doubt on herd immunity feasibility - BBC News

LOL I didn't just predict that cases would start going down, I predicted WHEN they would start going down, missed it by one day. :icon_wink: Please quote anyone back in early July that predicted this. If it was so obvious why didn't you predict it?

As far as your link to the article about Spain, perhaps you did not read the NYT article I posted in the OP about antibody tests. They are not very accurate, some of them look for the wrong antibodies, or have poor calibration. Doesn't matter anyway, your T cells have long memories and can produce new antibodies when needed. Please actually read the article so you can understand.

Your coronavirus antibodies are disappearing . Should You Care? - Times of India

Then read about T cells and immune responses here

T cells found in COVID-19 patients ‘bode well’ for long-term immunity | Science | AAAS

:)


https://i.postimg.cc/3J1BrYdF/2020-08-06-14-40-04.jpg

Would you prefer to read the actual science that article is based upon? It's more technical but will tell you the same thing. The article quotes several immunologists and epidemiologists directly. Do you dispute their conclusions?

CDC says the same thing, antibody tests highly inaccurate

Antibody tests for Covid-19 wrong half the time, CDC says - CNN

Interim Guidelines for COVID-19 Antibody Testing | CDC

GoodLife, I do hope that you are right....but, I'd wait a couple of weeks before claiming the prize. The last couple of days have been influenced by the tropical storm, with some testing sites closed down. That will continue to be the case for a few more days. There are still a lot of places in Florida, and in the country, where we are nowhere near the number (whatever it is) that is needed for herd immunity .

I will make this real easy for you. Forget all the competing theories and models and highly technical science studies. Take a look at this chart that shows the death totals per day of Sweden superimposed over New York. New York's death rate was 3 times higher but that does not matter, this is not a "who did better" question.

New York enacted a severe lockdown on March 14 and recommended everyone to use masks two weeks later. Their deaths went up rapidly anyway, peaked, and then started going down.

Sweden stayed open, did not lockdown or recommend masks, just advised mild social distancing. Their deaths went up rapidly, peaked, and then started going down.

In both places this rise and fall took the same amount of time. In both places there is no new surge, and deaths and cases are close to zero.

Tell us in your own words how this could happen. Even a dumbo can figure this out. I am not calling you a dumbo, just using it in general like you did. :icon_wink:

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The downward trend started almost 3 weeks ago. I noticed it two weeks ago and waited till yesterday to see if it was continuing down. Because of Isaias testing numbers went down for 3 days but that has little effect on the three week trend. The percent positive of total tests is also trending downward. This number is actually probably 1-2 points high because many labs continue posting 100% positives and no negatives, which skews the percent positive number higher. But it is going down anyway. Notice that yesterday, will full testing resumed, positivity was just over 8%

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As I noted in the OP, herd immunity is geographical so I advised Villagers to continue staying safe. I am still a modified Howard Hughes and since this may take another 2 months to wind down here in Florida, plan on doing the same.

The surges in Texas and Arizona look to have started falling as well. We just have to be patient.

Well researched and presented. This is TOTV and we are discussing COVID 19 so there is always going to be some pushback. Once panic sets in people just cling to their position no matter what.

The take away you quoted and that many of us have said for some time - and also backed by some very talented scientist, doctors, and statisticians - is "the virus is gonna do what it's gonna do".

This is true for lockdowns and wearing masks. These measures will "flatten the curve" but not stop the virus from running its course.

My VERY lay mans 2 cents worth.

Masks and lockdowns don't seem to work much at all. Look at New York, locked down March 14 recommended masks 2 weeks later. Result, 2nd highest deaths per million in the world.

The Phillipines has been locked down tight for 4 months and is the most mask compliant country in the world.

Result? Virus does it's thing anyway

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Soon approaching acceptable annual infection/death rates just like the flu....cancer....heart attacks.....automobile accidents.

Maybe people aren't replying because it's long and people don't have time to read it. I did a quick scan, it seems he predicted virus cases in Florida would peak, then decline. And that's what happened, just like every other virus outbreak in history. So congrats to him, I guess.

This post you linked is from MAY 26th. That's like 100 virus years ago. Things change in 10 weeks. 1 week = 10 virus years.

BULLETIN: IBM ANNOUNCES FIRST PC: IBM PC Announcement 1981

CDC still has same info on antibody test on website today, nothing has changed. There are no new antibody tests.

They aren't very reliable and not a good way to test populations for virus exposure. Antibodies fading away doesn't matter anyway, read the info on t cells memory, cross exposure etc etc

Or just look at the Sweden/NY graph. Virus stops at a certain point of infection percentage of population.

So...you didn't have the 5 minutes to actually read it but you have an opinion on it? LOL

This is getting tiresome. I didn't just say cases would peak and then decline. I predicted WHEN they would decline. I did this on July 7 and said it would happen before the end of the month. At that time the media was blaring headlines that Florida was "the next New York" and "the epicenter" NOBODY was predicting this.

I invite you to find anyone in early July predicting that the surge would start to fall before the end of the month. I'll be waiting for any quotes you can supply.

Thank you, Goodlife, for your well reasoned posts and research. Keep it coming.

Wow Goodlife, you really made a very accurate prediction about when the new cases surge would start ending.

I'm looking forward to October 1st, no more Howard Hughes lifestyle! Yaaay Goodlife!

My goodness! You win the prize! Pat yourself on the back. Yes, it is getting tiresome. Come back in October and hopefully you'll still be right. Florida is #2 with a bullet. Tough fight for #1 with CA. We keep trying to be on top.

ooops, wrong thread! NM

Why am I reminded of another thread...? Oh, yeah:

:1rotfl:

Science is still involved in assessing the role that T-cells play in combating COVID-19, but you go ahead and do your victory dance. Hopefully nothing will change in the coming weeks or months to spoil the glee at the recent downturn in the number of cases. Even more importantly, I hope that the number of deaths has also peaked.

When I predicted that Florida's surge of new cases would peak and start falling before end of July I was applying the theory of a Nobel Prize winner. Nobody else was predicting this at the time I did. Doesn't make me an expert, just someone who knows how to follow the science and was willing to go out on a limb when nobody else was. Turns out my prediction was spot on. :)

As far as T cell coronavirus immunity science goes, nobody on this forum was even talking about it until I started bringing it up. I'd wager that you knew nothing about it till I brought it up. Search for T cell immunity on this forum and you will find a lot of posts by yours truly. T cell immunity from previous exposure to other coronaviruses has confirmation in 4-5 studies now, done in different parts of the world. Pretty convincing evidence. Doesn't really matter anyway, actual data from virus outbreaks all over the world shows that no matter the mitigation efforts, the virus keeps infecting until it reaches a certain percentage of population, then it goes downward. This fact alone says that there is something stopping the virus from full penetration and infection of all. T cell immunity studies are just another confirmation of why this happens.

Of course I am gleeful that cases are trending downward. You would think everyone would be. If cases go down then so will deaths. Cases peaked on July 18 so we should be close to peak of deaths because of lag time in reporting (3-4 weeks) Current highest death day was July 16 with 152 deaths, but that may get surpassed as new certificates come in.

On top of what? Case count? Who cares, it is deaths that matter. Everyone from New Jersey can be proud of having the highest death rate per capita in the world.

And don't worry, there is no way that Florida can knock NJ off that perch, even if our deaths double in the next two months.

Congrats!!

Covid 19 deaths per 100k population

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It's like shooting fish in a barrel :ho:

Well I follow the science literature and the role of T cells so heard about it already. The problem is that Covid 19 was man made in the labs at Wuhan and engineered to circumvent our natural biological defenses. So I’ll cross my fingers and wait and see.

One is my favorite movie’s along with warhorse.:a040:

Or inflated?