Housing prices over the past 10 years
 

I was curious on how much new housing prices have gone up in the past 10 years so I went to the library last week and I checked on prices in 2012, 2015, and 2021.

In November, 2012, a Begonia in Charlotte was $244,000; an Iris in Charlotte was $242,000; and a furnished Courtyard Villa in St. James was $175,000.

In March, 2015, a Cedar in Dunedin was $282,000; a Gardenia in Dunedin was $352,000; and an Ivy in Dunedin was $415,000.

In January, 2021, a Linden in Bradford was $457,000; an Emmet in Bradford was $557,000; and a Putnam in St. Catherine was $309,000.

Not sure the point. Like everything else prices for everything have risen dramatically in the past ten years. The CPI consumer price index has exceeded 7% this year.

Other than in a scify movie, book, we cannot go back to 2012 buy homes, stocks, food etc and move it to 2022.

The purpose of the post was informational only. A lot of people have moved here in the past few years. I think everyone knows that prices have gone up in the past 10 years but they may not be aware of how much houses have gone up in that time period.

I actually think if you went back to 2007,8,9 from 2012, you would not see a huge amount of difference either. Maybe 5% total. One of the reasons I bought in 2014 was I saw the start of the big increases.

Not familiar with more than a few of these models...

Are they comparable, sq footage wise?

Why stop at 10 years.....we have been here 18 years and the trend has been increasing prices.
The trend of increasing home prices in most areas of the USA goes back more than 50 years!!!!
Don't let the name of the link fool you....just click it and it will take you to a study of housing prices back to the 40's.....
Access Denied

Although true, but so has alot of houses, and since you can't go back to those prices, the only relevant point is today's prices for buying and selling.

and the only relevant information would be future home prices for those who have not purchased yet, do they wait for lower prices, has happened, or do they continue with FOMO buying?

Begonia 2 Bed 2 Bath Den 2731 sqft
Iris 3 Bed• 2 Bath• 2753 sqft
Ivy 4 Bed• 2 Bath• 3334 sqft
Gardenia 2 Bed• 2 Bath• Den• 2671 sqft
Emmet 3 Bed• 2 Bath• 2905 sqft
Linden 3 Bed• 3 Bath• 2877 sqft
Putnam 4 Bed• 2 Bath• 2814 sqft

I did a search of all new homes. There is only one home that is larger than 2600 sq. feet. It is an Ivy in Citrus Grove. There are 14 pre-owned homes that are larger than 2600 sq. feet.



See the link for a list of all of the models

Homefinder - The Villages(R) Homes and Villas for Sale

Reality-we do not KNOW. Truth the home we lived in for 40 years before selling and buying in the villages. My parents bought their home which as twice the size as what I bought and paid half as much as I did for it. I put what they paid for their home with a thirty year mortgage as a down payment. I never thought it would go up. I wanted, I needed more space and a better neighborhood. HUH, we sold that place for 6x what we paid for it. Same as the Villages. We bought 9 years ago and this house is up ???
at least 40%. I once again did not expect it to go up. What will the future be? WE DO NOT KNOW.

Financial advice? Few will dare to admit THEY DO NOT KNOW. Housing prices are going up most everywhere. Some own another home elsewhere. If, that is the case it to is going up. Others have money in the stock market. It too has gone up on a historically high basis. Is it a bubble? Is housing a bubble? Reality, may sound stupid
WE DO NOT KNOW.

My mother and sister used to read Ann Landers-her advice column. In the end, if you read her column and it blew up because of her advice she would never admit she was wrong. YOU/WE all need to make the best choices we can for the gain or the loss will be ours not people giving free advice with no skin in the game.

We moved into the Village of Largo two years ago. The homes in our area were built snd sold during the boom of 2005-2006. When you factor in the $20-30k in upgrades most of my neighbors put into their homes for birdcages, crown molding, plantation shutters, upgraded finishes, landscaping, etc…they JUST broke even on their investment when we purchased our home in 2020.
It took 14 years for the market to recover from the bubble they bought in!
The bubble we are in now puts the bubble of that era to shame.
The good news is that in this chapter of life the “investment” factor for buying our homes isn’t such a big deal if we have other retirement assets. But if your home is a substantial part of your net worth and you may need that equity for nursing home care or such in the future, buying in this bubble could be a costly long term mistake.

:1rotfl::1rotfl::1rotfl:

clouwho,

I think your last paragraph, beginning with, “The good news is,” makes an excellent, common sense point.

There is a sense of urgency created by today’s real estate market that makes the market during the early part of this century look tame by comparison. This market has a far more emotional component than that one. I think this market is weirdly a big side effect of the pandemic. We have had too much time on our hands and with that has come the urge to “do something” — and for many that has meant making a move.

You are right about “this chapter of life” where some can afford to buy whatever they want — even though they might feel like the prices are ridiculous — while others should be more circumspect.

I think we are nearing the time where the quasi-flippers might need to tread more carefully. I also think that anyone who is close to being ready to move “back home” — especially if they have a house there, too — might want to think about gettin’ while the gettin’ is good. (They can always come back and rent if they want to.)

Although. . .profit on a home that is not the primary residence invokes capital gain. This is a reason why anyone who owns two houses should be on top of saving every record of any improvements on the secondary residence to close the gap between purchase price and selling price — but people who own more than one house probably already know that.

I don’t feel like we are going to see a drastic drop like the last bubble. But this market is going to have to take a breath eventually, for a variety of reasons.

But my guess is as good as anyone else’s — meaning — only time will tell — said Boomer, stating the obvious.

Boomer

I would agree, I think at some point it will level off and maybe even go down a bit. But I hesitate to call it a bubble. Also anyone making comparisons to 2008 are not well educated on what caused that nightmare.

We bought a home last month because we found what we wanted at a price that worked for us. We're in our mid 60's, about to retire. Time is not something we take for granted, even though we're very fit and healthy. So, "waiting for the market to cool off" was not an option. Besides who knows when that will be?

That said, I don't see the warm weather markets cooling off for a while. Too many boomers out there, and more people than ever retiring early. Many of them sick of winter and wanting to escape it.

But if any of us knew for sure, we'd be extremely rich.

Is the bubble about to burst ? See advice at 4:48.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sbgyBhI4wo

Some housing markets have been crazier than others but most have gone up substantially. Several factors which vary from market to market have driven price increases. To name a few - historically low interest rates (preposterously low IMHO), Baby Boomer retirees relocating to warmer climes, bigger and nicer homes desired by those who work at home made possible by technology and due to the pandemic, people migrating from high cost areas to lower costs areas and for better school systems for their children, recent shortages and cost increases in lumber and other building materials, increased wages due to worker shortages in construction and other industries, during this last year much higher fuel and food prices, high inflation, an increasing number of shortages of critical items and so on.

I own a house in a small town in Northern Idaho in which my son and his family reside. I bought it in late 2017 for $390K. At that time our real state agent apologized for the price as it would have sold for $290K in 2016. Zillow now values the house at $868K and my son believes I could get more, much more for it. An LLC in which I hold a share just sold a Maryland commercial property for twice what I thought it might bring at best. Indeed it sold for 40% over what the highly experienced commercial real estate brokers specializing in that type of property believed it would go for.

You just convinced me we are in a bubble for sure.

And we listed the Maryland property a bit above what the brokers recommended. We had 12 solid offers all over our asking price within a week or two. The brokers recommended we get a second round of bids. We received six, all well above asking price. It was a clean, easy deal, too.

My barber of 30 years back in Southern California with whom I remain in touch told me his grandson just got a house under contract as a buyer in Carlsbad, CA. 18 offers in two days. Four were cash buyers including him. His was not the highest offer but near the highest. He had no contingencies or inspection conditions so the sellers accepted his offer. It is just ridiculous now.

Those prices seem high to me.

When we were choosing a model to have built in May 2016, a basic Iris was $258K and a basic Laurel Oak was $289K. These prices do not include the price of the lot.

Well, more interesting would be normalized for inflation numbers. I was going to say based on square footage, but that won't work either since the houses built 10 years ago aren't the same as those built today in many way. A single example is the poured concrete walls.

But, anyway, inflation sucks and every time it comes around, people focus on it.

Without comparing the same 3 models each timeframe this really does not say anything.

What were lots going for in May, 2016? No view lots backing onto a house and view lots on a golf course, pond, or nature preserve. I don’t think construction costs have gone up as fast as lot prices.

Did you look at the video ? It says we are at the beginning of the end. Mortgage rates are at 5%. Houses in TV are no longer being offered over asking. Author's advice if you are going to sell do it now.

The basic lots with no view and kissing lanai were $5K.

Our quarter acre lot on a cul-de-sac was $60K.

The lots that backed up to a golf course or a water view were about $90K thru $140K.

A good friend of mine favorite phrase was “everything is relative”. Truer words have never been spoken especially when it comes to real estate. In the last five years, the average house in TV has doubled in price. Some maybe a bit more if you own on the golf course. There are no golf course lots currently for sale. However if you sell and purchase another new home it’s all “relative” as my friend has said. You get more but you pay more for another. Fore!

You don't have to go back very far to see the pricing boom on homes south of 44.

How far back does one have to go to see the pricing boom north of 44 ?

Connecting the dots
 

When the last bubble popped, TV seemed to slow down a little but I don’t think it was ever hit like the rest of the country.

When the LSL area took off, people were lining up, frantic to buy. Many of those LSL buyers were already Villagers but just wanted to move to the brand new area or wanted a different size than their first TV house. Another group of those LSL area buyers were from the beginning of the baby boom, newly retired or ready to be.

As LSL went on and reached 466A, it was then 2007–2008 and TV adapted to the slowing of the market up north. But TV never stopped in its tracks — like everywhere else did.

The rest of the country is now in the throes of extremely low inventory, but TV always has houses for sale, not only due to the continued building but also due to the demographic that eventually will move back home or to a care community or to the next world.

Although this market is not being caused by dangerous lending practices (drive-by appraisals and stated assets loans and a frenzy in the secondary mortgage market — reeling those mortgages in the front door and selling them out the back door at high speed) this market has one element in common with the last one — a ridiculously low mortgage rate. Now, that is changing — by the day. . .

And those rate increases will have to slow the market elsewhere. TV buyers are often cash buyers because they have harvested a ton of equity out of houses they had owned forever, so TV buyers often choose not to mortgage. But the TV market is affected by the markets retirees leave behind. Real estate cash might not be flowing as freely as it has been.

Boomer

PS: Not a one of us knows where this weird real estate market is headed, but some of us (including me) think it is fun to talk about.

[QUOTE=Boomer;2082807]When the last bubble popped, TV seemed to slow down a little but I don’t think it was ever hit like the rest of the country.

I will challenge this a bit - however there is an exception to every rule and maybe this is the exception.

Here is the selling history of a courtyard villa off of Delmar I rented when we first came to TV:
1992 - $81K
1999 - $108K
2007 - $249K
2009 - $150K
2015 - $179K
2022 - $249K

FYI - $81K invested at 7% in 1992 would have yielded $616K today

You laugh, but clouwho makes a valid point.
When looking at the increase in price of resales, what is often overlooked is the cost of upgrades. When the houses were originally sold, they were "bare-bones", at least most of them. Minimal landscaping, no plantation shutters, no crown molding. Carpeting throughout.
Many people invested 10s of thousands of dollars on various upgrades, along with paying off 20K or so of bonds.
Yes, the market has gone up, but when you add in those other costs, it negates a considerable amount of that "profit".

Here are some facts. We bought in 2012 for $190K. Just a few weeks ago, a neighbor with the same model as ours sold for $387.5, nearly double our purchase price. Their house was sold turnkey, but had no upgrades other than a screen porch where the lanai was. Ours has a full Florida Room (under air, a complete room) where the lanai was, and has upgrades in flooring, countertops, and appliances, so I think ours is more than comparable to the one that sold. Too bad we have no intention of moving!

That is one persons opinion, I have no idea who he is. Not that I totally disagree. But here is the thing you are missing - 2/3 of buyers in TV are CASH buyers - no mortgage. they don't care. Many times they are moving from areas where they got a lot of money for their house. That said, interest rates WILL have an effect as housing price escalation abates in the north and west. However, DEMAND is not going down anytime soon, especially in Florida with 10000 people retiring a day, and more and more remote workers wanting to live in income tax free Florida.

We are all paying for the fact we have underbuilt for over 10 years so demand is way higher than supply, and we are in an inflationary environment that we all know the cause of (elections have consequences).

However, I think interest rates are going WAY higher, like mortgages over 7% a year from now, they will have to be to slow down inflation. So the housing will slow down but there is no bubble.

My prediction? No drop in prices, but only 5% a year price inflation in TV. Kind of more back to normal.

I agree on all your points. Plus, this market is nothing like what was going on in 2008. It's strictly too much demand and not enough supply.
It's like this all over the country. But Florida is even more extreme since there's so many boomers retiring and wanting to move to warmer weather. And as you said, more poeple than ever are retiring early.

We're trying to downsize here in Indiana since we'll be in TV for 5 or 6 months a year. We have people wanting our house now but we're struggling to find a smaller place. Very few on the market.

Higher interest rates will have some effect and I think prices may cool off some, but not a lot. In my opinion.