US Citizens fighting Recession
 

Who really understands Supply Inflation? How are high Interest Rates going to control rising labor and material costs? Does demoralizing the American citizen ever create a positive growth experience for the future of this country…sales of “ happy pills” by the Pharmaceutical companies are reaching an all time high..

Who knows? Hard to discuss this topic without unveiling the dreaded "P" word.

But "does demoralizing the American citizen ever create a positive growth experience for the future of this country"? In a weird way, I think yes. History shows this to us. The stock market crash followed by the Great Depression plunged a prosperous nation into a decade-long period of high unemployment, soup kitchens, and rampant homelessness, migrations of people to hoped-for greener pastures not seen since the great push westward of the 19th century. But we came out of it better. We knew the people who accomplished it. They were our mothers and fathers--still, in some rare cases, us. Immediately following the depression, they were the soldiers, sailors and airmen who fought a two-front war on opposite ends of the globe. The won--not so much because of military acumen or exception bravery, but because of the industries back home that employed their wives and mothers.

They were "The Greatest Generation".

I was privileged to interview my mother shortly before she died, about life in that time. What I knew about the Great Depression and WW2 I learned from history books. Dad fought in the Pacific theater (won the Bronze Star for his part in the liberation of the Santo Tomas prison in Manila) but he never much talked about it. Mostly to say that He acquired a great deal of respect for the Japanese during his tenure there as part of the army of occupation. He also carried a couple of bills of "occupation money" that he showed us. But otherwise--no. Mom the same. It was characteristic of that generation. But the stuff I learned from Mom was priceless. She talked about how, during the height of the depression, people came together. People doing laundry for one another, often walking more than a mile with a full basket as gasoline was saved only for important tasks, such a plowing or rare trips for supplies. My uncle--my namesake, actually--died at age 8 of rheumatic fever during that time. His family buried him in an unmarked grave as there was no money for anything resembling a modern funeral; certainly none for a headstone. His father--my grandfather--dug his son's grave.

Fast-forward to America 2022. Our worries are largely how inflation will affect our stockpile of money, or how the rollercoaster economy is going to impact our investments. The generations that came after us, in many cases, expect the government to either help pay or forgive the student loans that they incurred going to school for the relatively lucrative job they now have, and in too many cases bemoan the fact that they're not being paid what THEY think they're worth. Our dreams are of grandiose visions of how we can save the planet. Or whether or not spending the money to robotically explore the solar system is justified. Or which EV is best. In short, we argue and bicker about things that simply had no impact at all on the lives of The Greatest Generation. THEIR concern was having enough to eat. Or a place to sleep. Or winning a war. I often wonder just what that generation would think, if they had a glimpse into OUR reality and compared it to theirs. I'm afraid they'd see what we have and are, as heaven, compared to their reality.

“Hard times create strong men, strong men create good times, good times create weak men, and weak men create hard times.” This quote by author G. Michael Hopf says it perfectly, and our history proves it. The best steel is tempered in fire, after all. No one knows how long the current ills will last--or comparatively, if they're even ills at all--but I have no doubt that, in the end, we'll come out on the other side better than when we went into it. It is the American way, after all.

What’s the over/under on this thread? :1rotfl:

We have very similar experiences. I really hope your right! You have raised my spirits and I Thank you for that … This most recent Railroad Contractual issue is most definitely a “ P” word discussion!

It has perhaps become a national obsession with complaining. Things are not that bad.
We read about Ukraine. Imagine living wondering when troops will come through or cannons and or missals? Our CPI consumer price index hit 9.1% an it is now 8.2%. I read that in England it is 10%.

Far as, "happy pills," WE are the cause. People choose to take them.

Terms-a soft landing. What does it mean? Perhaps like my post. It could be worse.

Surprising in 2022 people still need to fight for sick benefits. Greed is the worst evil combined profits of railroads this year $25 billion with diesel fuel $5+. Corporation are trying to pull the wool over our eyes, yet they are all reporting exceptionally good earnings.

Far as the railroad strike. The whole set up is INSANE. They regularly go on strike in the last quarter. Many retailers the holiday selling season decides if they will be in business next year. They typically have many different unions. One goes on strike and the others refuse to cross the picket line. They are not on strike so they are still paid while refusing to work.
Management, negotiating to prevent a strike, know that whatever the union guys get they will get a similar package. Many railroads have a fireman his job is to tend the non-existent steam boiler for the steam locomotive.

And there are still 10 million or so unfilled jobs out there, what's up with that?

We all view things based on our bias. Fair balanced is in the eye of the beholder.
A corporation is not evil it is a business format. We all can choose to purchase stock, RISK YOUR MONEY, YOUR SAVINGS, and benefit. The offered contract is if, I recall a huge raise RETROACTIVE going back three years. The sick days are PAID sick days. I am an EVIL stock owner. I do not have a pension and am living on dividends. Interesting reality those with a pension it was untaxed income to the pensioner. The pension money is invested in the stock market.

The more money the government prints /puts in the hands of the citizenry increases demand without any work product, ie goods and services= inflation, the Fed is designed to be independent raising , lowering interest rates to adjust supply and demand , only two ways to lower inflation is to raise interest rates lowering demand or raise productivity something businesses are always trying to do, the Fed only has control of rates

I was born in UK and grew up during and in the aftermath of WW2.
Poor meant poor in those years.
We had nothing, yet we survived.
Poor today is nothing compared to those times.
Successive generations have had it so good, they have lost their power of making do in bad times.
I have no sympathy for Villagers screaming poverty and hardship.
If they are living above their means, have to big a mortgage etc. tough, downsize until your income meets your needs.
Most have never had it so good.

I agree…100 %…..

/very true

Amazing how it is has to come to unions protecting workers for jobs that have no reason to exist. Once upon a time unions existed for a good reason, now not so much. Sad.

interesting view fo the railroad strike and the history of how they got here

Rail Strike: Why The Railroads Won’t Give In on Paid Leave

F* corporatism

Seems to be a very slanted story. No word on salaries for the employees or featherbedding.

A soft place to land
 

your referring to pattern bargaining. One accepts then they all do.
Obsolete job titles are kept in contract books as a holding spot. Unions and management meet in arbitration and sometimes to settle a discilplinary action the individual rather than being discharged is transferred to that title. So effectively their pay is cut and they are generally used as helpers with the chance of regaining their former position by accrediting themselves in the future

Even in the corporate and education world, “sick day benefits “ produce liars out of everyone. Too many workers call in “sick” to take another day off from work. Instead of having Dr appointments, they are found at the ball game, shopping, or playing golf..etc. Some organizations tried adding sick days to vacation days, but then the workers wanted more days. Many jobs that had sick days required you to “use em or loose em”, instead of carrying over for long term illnesses……so liars again to avoid loosing another day off from work.

Precisely. The traditional media sells more advertising by raising passions of outrage, worry, and so on. Social media is mostly an echo chamber of whatever group you want to listen to. The noise-to-signal ratio from our devices is very high. More device time isn’t healthy. But it’s easy to tune out much of the noise if we try — beginning with the on-off switch.

all depends upon if the points the article make, confirms or not, your current beliefs of how the railroads should work.

Personally I have no experience with how a railroad works or should work. I only have maritime transportation industry experience. The article gave me insights to how the optimization processes have transformed a traditional industry from labor intensive to minimal labor. However, the industry appears very similar to the airline industry with scheduling optimization. Lots of federal airline regulation for labor requirements, max hours, backup requirements, similar to the maritime industry with continuous testing and safety education requirements, minimum labor requirements to work in the industry. Not so much with railroads. . . . obviously.

That technology transformation in labor reduction means less opportunities for future employment, seen it, been part of it, assisted in it in some places. There are many, many secondary and tertiary effects which are very similar to the monopolies and trusts of the 1920s and 30's, with the industrial transformation.

glad I am almost watching and not participating.

Soft landing means reducing inflation without going into a recession. Increasing interest rates decreases borrowing and thus spending which in turn reduces inflation. Less spending leads to layoffs which decreases spending more and in return lowers inflation but put us in a recession. It is not a U.S. only phenomenon but world wide and worse for most of the world.

Check into the history of railroad Union negotiations for a point where increased wages were traded for no or little sick leave. Therein may be the answer to the reluctance to add it now...

When I was getting my MBA in the 70s, the economics course I had to take taught that when unemployment went below 5%, inflation would result. When unemployment started dropping after the COVID recovery, I posted that concern and was poo-pooed by friends saying that theory had been debunked. And yet here we are, with unemployment low and inflation raging.

Tug of war
 

I represented the union I belong to and was the single negotiator for a number of contracts. One that I was proud of had 27 signatures, 26 from their side of the table and mine. What it boils down in most cases is the employer's representatives are sent in with a parameter they have to stick to, and they usually try to go below that to secure their own jobs. The employers send in his representatives with one thing in mind, profits and what it takes to get what they want doesn't matter. I on the other hand would go in with a number of demands from my members which I knew many were ridiculous, but I had to put it on the table. Once you pass the nonsense and if everyone entered this in good faith you would come with settlement. I settled one contract in day most others took months. It's a tug of war. As in many negotiations you knew you had a fair contract when either both parties left the table happy or unhappy. I approached these negotiations with two priorities to ensure my members had a safe environment to work in and to get them what would be a fair salary. Many people will blame the employers and many people will blame the unions, but until you're sitting at the table you really shouldn't pass judgment.

The complaining is from the self-inflicted wounds.

Have to disagree with this. Have no idea how railroad should work no experience other than every once in awhile being a passenger.

Think the writer had his point of view and was not at all a balanced article. Wonder if the writer was a member of the railroad union?

Best reply to a ? where in 90%+ of the world do not have the expertise to answer these ?s.

which shows you that your friends had agendas not economic principles to back their beliefs upon

Most of those jobs are for very unskilled labor, such as in the restaurant industry. Went to 2 restuaruants last week. Both 1/2 full and both had 15 minute wait times. Saw 1 maybe 2 wait staff walking around when we waited to hear that there was a 15 minute wait. Also, affecting skilled workers. Have a relative who can not find engineers in S. Florida. They can not afford to live there in a decent neighborhood, with a starting salary of 125K+.

When I had a state job in the '70s we had sick leave. When I quit I had many sick leave days available. I was told by my fellow workers to be sick during the last month to use up my sick leave.

Dad called it slick leave.

1. Supply Inflation - Since 90% of our supplies are manufactured by China, and they have been shutting thr country down every time someone gets COVID the past several years, it shuts down manufacturing and shipping, This causes months of delays, so IF there are still Widget A in stock in the USA, the price climbs because there are few of them and no guarantee of when we will bet more. Solution…bring manufacturing back to USA p, BUT not so fast. Workers in in China make A lot less than workers in USA, so that would send the prices of our products even more. No easy solution.

2. When FEDs raise interest rates, then when banks loan money it costs the consumer more for that product (aka mortgages, etc). Thereby, consumers stop purchasing those products and the prices then have to drop to compete with the shrinking group of purchasers that can still afford to purchase. It slows down the economic engine, so prices have to come down to try an attract buyers that have been pushed out of the market. It’s a fine line…reduce consumer spending without pushing the econ9my into a recession. The number to watch is unemployment. There has never been a recession with low unemployment. People are working, so we aren’t in a recession. If unemployment goes from 3% to 5%: then long term hurt on the horizon. So farm things are looking very good…gas is down, and some other prices down. It’s working.

3. Take responsibility for yourself. No one forced anyone to take drugs. Not even your doctor. Several times I’ve had doctors try to prescribe a pill and I say, “No” and I ask the alternative. Like too high of blood pressure, or glucose….losing weight helped me being the numbers back to normal. If a person is abusing a pill, it’s the person taking the pills fault. No one else. Take response your actions. Also, read up on stuff you put in your mouth. Read articles from the Mayo or Cleveland clinic, or WebMD about the product or issue. Educate yourself on alternatives. It’s your body, and YOUR responsibility what you ingest into it. BTW…”happiness” is a choice. Either you see the glass half-full, or you see the glass half-empty. Same two people looking at the exact same glass, and see something different. It’s not the glass fault….it’s you perspective. Change your perspective (turn lemons into lemonade in your head) and you’ll change your life.

Precisely...

I stopped reading after this:

"For months, the world’s largest economy has been teetering on the brink of collapse because America’s latter-day robber barons can’t comprehend that workers sometimes get sick."

:icon_bored:::popcorn:

My company has found and implemented a solution, we have no set number of vacation or sick days, we have a quoted number of billable hours that must be reached and it is that simple.

Excellent Response!
We are a spoiled generation..

God Bless

Excellent

Raising the interest rate to cool off our super-heated economy is the only solution to inflation. This is a global situation, and our government is doing the right thing, although it is painful.

I'll take a shot at that. Supply inflation is caused by the higher cost of a barrel of oil due to Russia's war with Ukraine. Also, China mismanaged its Covid problem which leaves fewer imports from China which drives up prices, resulting in increased inflation. The answer to the 2nd question is that the FED uses its only tool, the prime interest rate increases, to make large companies and home buyers pay more for loans thus discouraging building more factories and homes. The ripple effect is like applying BRAKES to the general overheated economy. Thus hoping to cool the general economy down. many experts think that the FED began the BRAKING too LATE this time and now may NOT get it exactly right - thus driving the economy into a recession. Historically, the FED has misjudged roughly 80% of the time.

As to "happy pills"........I believe that the Pharmaceutical Industry got EXTRA greedy and OVERHYPED oxycodone. Then China and maybe Mexico wanted to cause chaos and make drug money in the US and ended up supplying Fentanyl, which has succeeded in killing a whole middle age demographic group in the US. Lots of ruined lives!!!!!!!

With respect to # 1 .....The US could make products at prices competitive with China. Shipping costs would be saved. The US would need to be to invest further in A.I. and automated manufacturing, which it will have to do in the future anyway. Right now CEOs are reluctant to change away from outsourcing to China and other countries because they are making solid profits from outsourcing as it exists and CHANGE is always difficult.
One big mistake that the US made a few decades ago was moving R +D out of the Universities and into the various industries. Also, everyone knows that China steals our technology. WE built up China into a world power, now we have to deal with the Frankenstein's monster of our own creation.

Hard times make for hard people. Hard people make for soft times. Soft times make for soft people. Soft people make for hard times.....

We are entering the last phase of the cycle folks. Might be there for a while.