The end is near?
 

Of the rental market that is. I'm staying in Richmond on a small block, in that block 4 of the 12 homes are rentals, 2 of which are rented. Today on one of the rental sites there are 49 homes for rent in March. With new rentals coming on the market every day, Ya gotta wonder if home rentals in the Villages are the soon to be crash that everyone is fearing.

Going Soft
 

I agree, summer is around the corner and everything points to a rental crash soon. I see prices falling almost daily in the market. The housing supply is in explosion mode.

Good, then house prices will drop to a more reasonable level.

Many people buy before they are ready to retire and rent their house out until they are ready to move in permanently...

Personally, It's not for me, but it's quite common...

Sorely needed.
I think about young people and they're ability to enter the housing market.

Not fearing, hoping.

Right!

It's been said that many new houses were recently bought for the purpose of renting out. If the rental market is softening, then I wonder if houses in the newest areas will sell at a less frenzied pace than recently if the buyers-to-rent are absent from the market.

For fun let's project your statistics to all of TV and see if the old R square correlation exists. 4 of 12 homes are rentals = 33%. 2 of those 4 are not rented = 50% of rentals are available. TV has approximately 80000 homes. 80000 x 33% = 26400 rental homes of which 50% should be not rented, If there is correlation to the Richmond experience then 13200 Villages homes should be available for rent March 2023. Considering you found 49 homes for rent in all of The Villages homes for March it would probably be safe to conclude there is no correlation between Richmond and all of TV.

This data would seem to suggest rentals in March 2023 are in high demand and the Richmound data is not a valid sample size to draw a statistically confident conclusion from and appears to be an anomaly that is worthy of more exploration.

There has always been one truism in the world of real estate. It's always about "location".

Comparing Richmond and points South in The Villages, is an entire different world than the more traditional areas of TV. The South is not the same and never will be.

No matter what the original subject is, it usually ends up north vs south. Makes me laugh.

My thought exactly as I read his last sentence. But he made a good stretch to get there.

Average rentals are under contract usually a year in advance. Our long term unfurnished had inquiries anywhere from 5 months to over a year for next potential occupancy. yearly inquiries sometimes were 15, with some years upwards of 50. Home was under contract 1 day after closing, we turned down 19, the first year, with only 1 week of advertising. Home was rented solid from November 2012 to the day we sold in December of 2021

High season homes are usually booked a year in advance, unless it’s a new close. If 50% of the homes you speak of just went into rental pool just few months ago, they are doing well. We found larger homes seemed to rent quickly, and those with a pool never sat on the rental market for more than a week.

I don't know how one can lump Richmond in as a bad location. It's the closest village to Brownwood south of 44.

When I bought in Hillsborough, new house, in 2014, there were like 40-50 rentals the first few years. I think I counted 8 this year(in Hillsbourgh). Nothing new that there are a bunch of rentals down south. The funniest thing is that all the new Landlords said they were going to get $6000 a month in high season for 2024 (there is a landlord thread on Facebook). I told them they were all nuts. Raised rents on my return renters by 10% for next year to cover my costs (both houses I have are rented about 11 months a year, almost exclusively repeat renters) Yeah, now they are all dropping rents down to where they should be. There is plenty of demand, it will all even out. I have 2 designers I bought for $245 range and they cashflow nicely (never going to get rich). I have no idea how you make money when you buy one at $450.... with a 7% mortgage. The math does not work. Believe me, a lot of them will sell. Look for deals on Patio villas next year, there will be some running.

The way you make money is the renters help pay the mortgage and expenses, and then the home appreciates so you make most of the money when you sell (or finally retire and move in :)). Rentals are an inflation hedge with a very nice tax treatment. Anyone who thinks otherwise in TV is fooling themselves. If high season rents go too high, people will just buy. It is easy math.
Ed

First off for the most part people renting for the month of March made their reservations a year ago. Newer house might not have been built so they have a chance to be rented March 2024. That said, if the number of renters each year does not increase but many more have houses to rent, some will not be rented. Many rent the same house every year so the newer neighborhoods might take awhile to get popular.

We bought our house almost 4 years ago but we do not rent it. I would rather not have people using my stuff. We get down 4-5 weeks a year for now.

I agree with the comments made by Ed - you are not going to get rich from the rental revenue. The market does seem to depend on area but that is largely due to the facilities and what people want. We have a house that is mid way between Sumter and Spanish Springs. Lots of facilities and entertainment choices. We could rent 4 or 5 times over in the Jan to Apr period. Next years renters have already asked us to keep the dates for them for several years ahead. Our summer rentals are also strong each year.

The “South” is a different animal all together. There are currently over 400 family apartment style units almost completed or being erected on the corner of 466A and Powell. In addition Wildwood has a brand new development that just started breaking ground last week between the new Home Depot and Target store area that looks massive. Add in the new non Villages units on the south side of 501 and you can see many options opening up for new Floridians. What once was a limited market is now morphing into something much different. Thousands of options are changing the old school playing field. I agree with the group in saying, “You aren’t going to get rich owning rental property.” It couldn’t be more correct as the tea leaves are being revealed for the next decade. If you own a rental, now me be a good time to egress into the “Cash is king” mode.

That’s what we did…5 of 6 were owned inside of IRAs so no capital gains either. Got out before rates rose. Worked out quite well. We’re here now as a result.

Thank you
 

Lol
That is so so true. Thank you for making me laugh so hard. I guess I too am always a northern gal 🤣😘😘😘

Wow science and economics how refreshing

Can you explain the capital gain issue? We have to sell before two years (hope to be back one day)! Thank you!!

One can only hope. Sorry, not the reason we moved here.

Inflation (daily living expenses, food, gas, insurance) and taxes will keep the rental market healthy.

Totally agree with you as anything South of CR-44 will never be as the original Villages was and created by "Harold Shwartz and Gary Morse". They built a community of Rec Centers, Stores, and Town Squares to attract buyers.

Shamefully now as the "Morse Clan" only wants to make even more money. No consideration at all for the purchasers of their very profitable homes.
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We bought a piece of land in Feb. 2009 in the Village of "Amelia". They offered us a full year to build. This will never happen today. All enmities were up and running before we purchased them there. I went to Publix in Colony on their grand opening morning, there were 2 customers and 6 employees in the store. Havana was being finished awaiting an opening day. Mallory was open months earlier. We were told as well as there would never be any more development south of CR-466A.
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Then we purchased a home under construction in Pine Hills closing in Dec. 2018 and moved from Amelia. Again we were told by the cloned Village Salesperson that they (the Morse clan) have no desire to build South of CR-44.
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South of CR-44 I believe there they still have only one Publix to serve how many thousands of people. Why don't people realize what actually is going on with new home sales in "The villages"?
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When the "Village of Fenny" was opened for sale people bought. A few short months later you see homes go on the market for resale as there were no attractions for these purchasers. They needed to drive up to The Original Villages North of CR-44 for something to do.
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We moved out of The Villages in August of 2020 as it was getting too crowded anywhere we went due to the wanted lack of places for the new purchasers South of CR-44 to do by the "Money Hungry Morse Clan".
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From what I have read on this site I can see we made the right move out of" The Villages" in 2020. Wish all home purchasers South of CR-44 the best of luck awaiting the creation of "Shopping, "Town Square", and enough Recreation Centers for everyone's convenience.

I'm interested in your experience, can you expand on how you purchased homes here from within your IRA's?
Thanks!

Don't forget....The conclusion is only as good as the data....Liars figure, and figures lie.
:posting:

I remember being told by my realtor, in 2008, "The amenity fee will cap off at $155/month". Also, "Once the building reaches 466A, that will be the end of new homes". I honestly feel lied to at times. And when the movie theaters didn't re-open (and looks like they will never reopen), I feel cheated. I also feel like the Morse "kids" are forgetting Harold Schwartz's purpose for building The Villages. I recently met a few "oldtimers" who knew Mr. Schwartz. They said he would be rolling in his grave if he were able to see what this place has become. Apartments, condos, housing units going up all over the area . . . it's really getting to be too much! JMHO.

Not sure how they think they are going to make $$ if they have a mortgage. I am a landlord and I wish we had rules about the age demographic and time line people can rent for. I am totally against quick turn arounds (1week or less). I think to keep the Villages in tact there should be rules the full time residents don't have to put up with strangers next to them every week. We are becoming a Disney Vacation Club otherwise and the majority of folks living here can't be for that.

You need a really good lawyer / accounting firm to get the purchase $ and the title in the correct legal location, and then all good!

its pretty amazing what good lawyers and accountants can do to create favorable tax situations. What they can't do is pick a good property for you and manage the properties well. . they aren't operational strategists by trade. .

Buying real estate with an IRA is a can of worms that most folks aren't equipped to handle, financially or otherwise. Anyone who suggests it's "easy" or that it's a panacea for taxes, doesn't understand it very well.

You do "avoid capital gains", but end up paying taxes as if it were regular earned income when you take distributions. Save now, pay later.

Here's a reasonable explanation of the problems, pitfalls and difficulties of buying rental property with an IRA.

Using Your IRA to Buy Real Estate

It won't be long, before TV North & TV South, are distinguished by different names ... just as the original trailer park area has been re-named "The Historic District".

Schwartz & Morse deserved accolades for what they did. The bought junk land in the middle of no where and from whole clothe, created a resort/city/community that provided what people wanted at the time. The "Field of Dreams", in a real life application. "Build it and they will come".

The next generation of the family, doesn't appear quite so smart or visionary.

They haven't created anything, other than housing. The sad truth, is the housing they've been creating is no different than subdivisions all over Florida, other than the location ... which is still in the middle of no where, surrounded by nothing.

Doesn't really sound any different from any other investment in the IRA from a tax point of view. . always taxed at the income rate at withdrawal and no capital gains are paid out when selling the property, standard IRA rules. The biggest difference is that the RE investment is an illiquid investment, and can have very uncertain cash flows.

The cash flow and the financing appears to be the issue with a young IRA, as there isn't a lot of cash accumulated to be able to be successful. The key is that all cash in and out comes from the IRA, which is the cash flow requirement/ non cash invested for unexpected maintenance such as a new roof.

Again, just requires a good financial lawyer and CPA to make it work within the constraints, which are just added costs. . now its significantly easier to get real estate diversification with cash flow from a REIT, so i am assuming that the success or failure comes down to your ability as a property purchase negotiator and tenant/property manager to make it work financially, as well as a significantly sizable IRA with which to start. .

Doesn't mean there will be many homes going on the market.

You seem so glad that you bought in The Villages. You do live here right? Why?

Quote:

Originally Posted by BrianL99 (Post 2178155) It won't be long, before TV North & TV South, are distinguished by different names ... just as the original trailer park area has been re-named "The Historic District".

Historic District - north of 441
Dyersville - between 441 and 466
Alexandria - between 466 and 466A
Stepford - between 466A and 44
Shaker Heights - below 44

Actually, Spanish Springs is the "Historic District" . North of 441 is the "Prehistoric District". :jester:

It's not a complicated equation.

Morse created a "one of kind" with The Villages. Homes, recreational & social activities, virtually unprecedented in the USA.

Morse's heirs have created single family subdivisions, virtually identical to subdivisions all over the USA.

If you want/need a place to live, there are a million choices, including the Southern areas of TV.

If your needs are unprecedented access to golf and social/recreational activities, there's nothing like The Villages that I'm aware of.

What is reasonable? For many, they own another home that they plan to sell. The one you sell is also going up. So it is a wash. Mortgage rates have also gone up. The purchasing power of the dollar CPI consumer price index was 9.1% now 8.5% or there about. Our previous home we sold it for 6x what we paid for it. Wow, great. Made me check most everything else also went up 6x.
What is happening, what will happen, truth it is a best guess.

If, you are happy where you are staying there may be the best option. My niece bought a home in
BUFFALO-homes are cheeeeeeeeep. You've probably heard of the SNOW. Trying not to call and tell her it is 70 here. Truth I miss the snow. Pictures and my busted back are enough for me.

People are people, it has never been different. We are told typical villager moves three times.
HUM four would make more sense-north south east and west.