Housing prices falling in Florida
 

I doubt prices here will fall very much, but don't expect them to rise much either. Many people are trying to sell at prices they may have gotten a year ago, but they can't get that now.

I am not worried.

Are you?

I am not selling. If I were, I would be concerned. There are a number of houses in my neighborhood that have been for sale for several months. Two years ago, they would have sold in a few days or weeks.

those were crazy times. Obviously that couldn't last forever, and I'm guessing we are seeing a little regression to the norm.

Very much like the S&P 500 being at 4100 now instead of 4700.

House prices are certainly going to drop, with the new 1.00% added to the rate for mortgages of those with good credit

“Starting in May, a new federal rule will upend the current structure of the Loan-Level Price Adjustment (LLPA) matrix. Homebuyers with a good credit score could see their monthly mortgage payment rise by over $60 a month, while riskier borrowers will get more favorable mortgage terms because their fees were reduced. It's a move the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) hopes will address housing affordability challenges in the U.S., but it's come under scrutiny for being unfair and potentially ineffective.”

Well I believe this is the 2nd or 3rd month in a row now that prices and sales have declined nation wide; even states like Florida and Texas. What might be worth a worry or two, is the what the effect of the administration's "Home Act" (presently stalled out in congress) might have eventually on the entire real estate market nation wide... the old ripple effect, if it does get passed. Personally I am not as convinced as others are concerning the equity in mortgage plan. Will lowering the rates for those with poor credit, and raising the rate 1.75 % for those with excellent credit, really work out ? While it is a worthy goal to help low wage earners to become home owners, after the last sub-par fiasco I'm leery of "eliminating" bias in home lending by penalizing those who have been meticulous in their financial matters. Guess another "wait and see" if the effects will be negative or positive, but I think it takes effect soon.

The sky is falling ! We have a shortage of 3 to 5 million houses in the United States.. Florida Housing is in demand …updated houses sell! Wash your Balls and go Golfing

Any 5 year prediction is worthless. Look what unpredictable things happened just since the last presidential election. Stock market crashed. Inflation skyrocketed. Interest rates way up. Russia started a war. Gas prices doubled.

as an extrapolation of the current situation and generalized economic theory, and the future / predictions is never factual, even though its based on current facts. Its also meaningless unless you are in the market because you want / need to move, and even then 1-3% is not enough to make a significant difference if you have to move.

Stock market low was March 16 2020 - 8 months prior to the last presidential election.

Giving mortgages to unworthy credit risks worked great in 2008. Socialism at it's finest.

From today’s Wall Street Journal:

“Rising Mercury, Rising Home Prices

The Tampa metro area, which includes cities such as Clearwater and St. Petersburg, had overall inflation well above the national rate of 5% and the highest of any region the Labor Department measured in March. It trailed only Phoenix among places that the department regularly surveys. The largest Arizona metro registered a whopping 8.9% increase in prices in February over the prior year.
…

Southbound migration in search of jobs, sunshine and less expensive housing isn’t new, but was turbocharged during the pandemic. That increased pressure on housing markets, pushing up rents and home prices. But when housing is removed from the index, inflation in those areas is near the national average.

In Phoenix, the median rent payment rose by 26% over the prior year in February on a six-month moving average, and in Tampa the median rent payment jumped 23%, according to an analysis of financial data by the Bank of America Institute. Northern cities such as Chicago, Boston and New York saw equivalent rent payment increases of under 10%.”

Comparatively Florida area (Miami data was not available) seems to be increasing in demand.

Or was it capitalism at its greediest and worst?:shrug:

Yes, the beginning of covid caused that low, thank you to another country who was afraid of the USA at that point. Let’s remember that.

One prediction.

:shrug:

I would not classify Rep. Frank and those regulating Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as capitalists. :ohdear:

Here is my prediction:

If things are good I get the credit
If things are bad it was my predecessor

As for housing prices lumber futures
4/1/19 < $400
4/1/21 $1500
Today < $400

Mortgage rates on the rise

Employers are starting to force employees back into the office. This could have a negative effect on areas like Florida where people migrated when they could work from home. If you want to keep your job with the same firm you may have to return.


I'll bet housing prices go back maybe as far as prices 4 years ago.

The only house price that matters is the one you are buying or selling. Broad statement is meaningless

View sights seem to be holding, others not as much. Location etc.

it's all the other guy's fault.

Banks got greedy and did not do the proper underwriting.

This new mortgage rule is so nonsensical I thought the poster writing about it was kidding. Turns all economic teaching upside down sort of like saying let’s’ s try 1 plus 1 as 3 the second “1” needs to subsidize the first “1”.

Forcing offices to open back up would increase prices. If you can’t work from home, the boss has to pay the overhead costs of a larger business building etc.

Lenders were forced into making bad loans.

"The evidence is overwhelming that Clinton was the architect of the financial disaster that wiped out trillions of dollars in household wealth. Under his National Homeownership Strategy, Clinton took more than 100 executive actions to pry bank lending windows wide open.

Through executive order, he marshaled 10 federal agencies under a little-known task force to enforce new "flexible" mortgage underwriting guidelines to boost low-income and minority homeownership.

For the first time, banks were ordered to qualify low-income borrowers with spotty credit. The 1994 policy planted the seeds of the mortgage crisis, as lenders eventually abandoned prudent underwriting altogether.


The next year, Clinton set quotas for lending in high-risk neighborhoods under an overhauled Community Reinvestment Act, while adding several hundred bank examiners to enforce the tougher CRA rules. Banks that came up short had expansion plans put on hold — a slow death sentence in an era of bank mergers and acquisitions.

For the first time, CRA ratings were made public, egging on ACORN and other radical inner-city groups, which used the reports to extort banks for $6 trillion in subprime loan set-asides by 2008.

When bankers resisted being saddled with so many risky loans, Clinton tapped Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to take them off their books, while freeing bankers to originate more of the political loans. He had the Department of Housing and Urban Development nearly double Fannie's and Freddie's quotas for underwriting "affordable" loans, which remained in force throughout the 2000s.

When the mortgage giants pushed back, complaining that it would be hard to meet the higher targets, Clinton pushed them to load up on subprime loans, while authorizing Fannie and Freddie for the first time to buy subprime securities to earn credits toward the HUD goals. The mortgage giants complied to their great detriment.

So Clinton was also responsible for securitizing these loans which combined bad loans with good loans in packages that were sold to Wall Street institutions, including insurance companies. The mix of these junk loans made it impossible for investors to tell good ones from bad, and the markets eventually seized up and crashed."

From: Access to this page has been denied.

In a nutshell!

Those buildings already existed and owned. What do they do with the real estate that the company has at 20% capacity ? This will be the most realistic case of trickle down economics one has encountered in our time.

You mean when Covid first hit? Ummm... Okay...

100% correct and the market has steadily increased 73% since that low of March 16 2020. FYI Covid hit the USA January 2020 - 3 months before the market low point.

The shutdown started on March 13, 2020. That was when we shut down travel to and from Europe and people were sent home for two weeks to “flatten the curve.”

And that is correct also - The USA shutdown travel after 40 other worldwide countries had already shutdown their travel.

And now the govt will help to find more homes to sell to people who cannot afford them.

Makes no sense.

It appears that homebuyers with good credit will soon have to pay higher mortgage rates and fees to subsidize people with riskier credit ratings.

If you have a credit score of 680 or higher you will have to pay about $40 per month more than people with worse credit when taking out a home loan of $400,000.

If you have a 30 year loan and you have good credit, you will pay an extra $14,400 over the life of the loan!

If you are considering a home loan and you have good credit, should you miss a credit card payment or utility payment to get under 680 and save yourself $14,400??

My people call it socialism.

Home prices are like the stock market. They go up. They go down. Nothing matters until the day you sell.

And other people call it punishment for good behavior. How dare you have good credit! What were you thinking when you payed your bills on time? And what about working hard so you can afford those bills in the first place?

Generally, people are fined for bad behavior, they didn’t stop at a stop sign etc. This new policy fines people for good behavior, for doing what they are supposed to do. What could possibly go wrong?

Exactly.
But home prices are leveling off pretty much everywhere. As far as TV go, I don't see prices dropping very much at all. Except for the people overpricing their homes thinking they can still ride the wave.

There's still a lot of boomers out there retiring or getting ready to retire like us. i think Florida will have a very vibrant real estate market for a while, just not white hot like it was a year ago.

Including here. I am building a home in Newell. Took 90 days and SEVERAL price drops to sell.

that information, by itself, does not tell us much.

For example, a few blocks from me, there is a home that has been on the market since November, and has had several price drops, from 460K, now down to 390K. However, upon looking at the price history, one learns that it was sold in November of 2017 for 260K.

Asking for 460K, 5 years later, is asking for a 77% increase in 5 years. Not succeeding in such a lofty goal is far from a "crash". Even now, after several "price drops", should they succeed in getting the current asking price, that would represent a 50% increase in 5 years.

True, that might have worked 2 years ago, but regressing from a "bubble" to more realistic, yet still quite handsome returns, does not a "crash" make.

Bet you still made a profit though!