Given the inflation decline, Fed should be done hiking. . .
 

Looks like federal reserve interest rates have peaked, and given the inflation trend at the moment, which is much slower and getting near fed targets. However, fiscal spending is still trending higher, like the sumter county tax rates on non homesteaded homes, and longer term interest rates may continue to rise with the continued increased fiscal spending, which is not good for mortgage rates.

So for those like myself still in 2 year bills, rolling out in duration to 5 year notes when it gets higher than the 2 year rate would be a good interest income strategy.

and remember that the future is always uncertain,
and sometimes more uncertain than at other times,
and that it can change in a flash for individuals and economies.

I agree, I wanna move my cash from my money market account into 4 and 5 year CD 's. Why do you choose treasury notes over CD 's ?

Inflation decline???? Just got our homeowners renewal, property tax bill, auto insurance renewal, 2024 health insurance renewal notice, went to the grocery store, and filled up the oil tank. Inflation appears to be accelerating, not declining. Food prices alone appear to be on a non stop upward spiral. I can see how the powers that be need to massage the data to create the false impression that inflation is declining. The cost of paying the interest alone on the out of control national debt has risen to over a trillion dollars per year.

Inflation and price gouging about 1,000 feet or so apart, Publix extra large eggs $5.99dz, Aldis extra large eggs $1.12dz.
We are experiencing GREED!

take a breath! I think you just hyperventilated with your current analysis of annual taxes, which I am gratefully thankful, as well as you are only seeing the FL geography and state/local effects. (remember, FL is a third world country in most all governmental aspects). Lets parse the words carefully:

The fed is done hiking rates due to the national government inflation calculations.
The rent equivalent portion of housing prices was one of the last rising components, and as evidenced from the house pricing discussions, that component should stop rising fairly soon.

The federal deficit funding is another issue, and that additional funding will cause the longer term interest rates to potentially rise, and putting the yield curve back into its normal upward sloping curve, with the current fed funds rate anchoring the curve. I fully expect longer term interest rates to rise, and soon due to the next 700B funding tranch coming next week? i think.

now, i am long oil and expected the middle east conflict to do something to crude / diesel supply, but without any super cold air in the northern hemisphere or any other supply interruptions, etc, the most obvious inflation generator isn't happening. Trucking companies are having a slowdown, which will keep diesel from having a supply crunch.

So currently, just sitting here waiting to see how fiscal funding affects interest rates, and expecting a slow deterioration of business conditions, with the increasing inability to pass on costs to the consumer, and hoping that oil will reverse a bit as the first cold air hits somewhere. Actually SG&A staff needs salary cuts, particularly sr mgmt, but that's my opinion. .

and remember that the future is always uncertain,
and sometimes more uncertain than at other times,
and that it can change in a flash for individuals and economies.

Perception, confirmation bias, media frenzy all play a role in what you think is happening vs what is really happening. I chose to show you oil prices as it is cut and dry. This is the straight forward chart of crude oil price per barrel for West Texas Intermediate. Note that the present day, Nov 7 it is at 80.85

That is the same as in Nov 2021, the same as Nov 2014. Now in Nov 2014 it was a huge drop from a high of over 120 in 2011.

If you are interested in more facts, US oil production in the most recent week was the highest ever. You read that right. The US in producing more oil now than at any previous time.

I also show you the chart of Florida gasoline prices. The price per gallon is in Oct 2023 a whopping 10 cents higher than Oct 2021. It will be lower once the November data is released. Yet somehow many people believe fuel prices are racing upward.

Agree 100%. Forgot to mention, you do not have to check out yourself but do have to "bag" your own groceries. Noted that some Publixes are starting self check out.

Yes, please listen to what you've been told... there isn't inflation, there isn't inflation, there isn't inflation. What a crock, prices are rising constantly and in leaps. If the Fed can't get a handle on what we are paying for commodities, taxes, wages and a multitude of items, most of the population will be on the government dole. It's a mess out there.

Publix is having a sale on Nellie's Free Range eggs for only $3.99. They're large, not extra large. But they have around 25% more nutritional value than the white factory farm eggs. They also bake better, and taste better, and smell better.

They run around $6/dozen at Walmart for Nellie's. But that's a pretty stable price, free range and pasture raised tend to be more expensive, but their prices also stay pretty stable. They don't get the disease problems that factory hens have. Whenever there's a salmonella scare or a bird flu or other sickness at the factories, the prices go sky high. But the small farm free range/pasture raised stay the same price as always. Expensive, but worth it.

I’m going to go to one of the free lunches. They know what to do with my money :$:. Take if from me :wave:

Got my gas for $2.85 this week. Pretty sure that's a lot cheaper than it was last year. Or even 6 months ago.

So you comparing inflation to oil market. Funny crud oil goes up and down but daily living prices don’t follow same pattern.

No you experienced convince and quality.

So do you think that will bring some prices down?

Read everything in the original post to which I am replying and what I wrote.

There was a complaint that inflation is out of control and as evidence we were told how much more he was paying for his fill up. I very clearly replied to that complaint which is demonstrably wrong. I presented charts for both the price of gasoline in Florida over several years and the price of oil over several years. No inflation. Nada, none, zilch.

Inflation and daily living prices as you chose to label it do not follow the crude [not crud] oil price. Correct. When crude dropped off the cliff during the Covid shutdown, we did not see deflation. All I pointed out was that using oil costs to prove inflation is out of control is completely bogus. Got it now?

If you want to know if inflation is out of control first you need to define what factors or commodities or services are in your inflation measure. The federal government does this and you can select among many different inflation measures.

A reason I do it is that at least for the past two years treasuries were yielding slightly higher than the same duration CD's. If you buy through Schwab/Fidelity etc check the current rates.

A side benefit to treasuries is that they are tax free if you are not a "legal" Florida resident. They can also be bought directly from the US Treasury via a Treasury Direct Account.

An advantage to CD's is that you can sometimes find some that pay monthly if that is important.

The fed paused, and there is a good possibility that they will raise rates in the next 2 meetings. You won’t see the fed pivot for a long time unless you start seeing banks failing.
It’s not just Florida where you are seeing high inflation, did you see a Big Mac meal in Idaho is $16?
Oil is a good place to invest in, but so is a couple other areas. Predictions are oil will be near $150 a barrel in the near future.
As soon as things change for the better, then you will see tremendous growth in the market and if you are tying your money up in 2 year holdings making not much money, you will miss this great opportunity to make good money.

Raise Rates
 

Keep in mind, the Fed’s goal is BELOW .02 not about or a little above. It’s still very possible to see a further hike or two.

The higher minimum wage isn’t going away and businesses either lay off employees or raise their prices. We lose either way.

What is actually going on.
 

[QUOTE=tophcfa;2272156]Inflation decline???? Just got our homeowners renewal, property tax bill, auto insurance renewal, 2024 health insurance renewal notice, went to the grocery store, and filled up the oil tank. Inflation appears to be accelerating, not declining. Food prices alone appear to be on a non stop upward spiral. I can see how the powers that be need to massage the data to create the false impression that inflation is declining. The cost of paying the interest alone on the out of control national debt has risen to over a trillion dollars per year.[/QUOTE
Thank you for your truthful and honest response based in reality.

:evil6::evil6:

OK, I'll bite. Exactly who has said "there isn't inflation"? We've seen inflation for the last 50 years except maybe once. Prices almost always rise. Inflation can be stated as declining, decelerating or falling but prices still rise, so we still have inflation. However, it's not "in leaps", unless you want to keep harping on 2022. We are running under 4% for the last 6 months, which is still elevated but is far from being "a mess out there".

Inflation
 

Inflation since April 2021, of essentials, have gone up 20%! That includes the cost of eating at home.
Overall, costs have gone up 13% during that same period.
The bad news is that they are never coming back down. Yes, wages have gone up but have not kept pace. My grandson, who is a junior in high school, makes over $16/hour at Taco Bell. Of course, that increases all associated costs ie ss, Medicare,, unemployment insurance, workers comp. We all have to pay for that in the things we buy. A business has to recover all their costs or they go out of business. Simple economics. Add to that, the uncontrolled Federal government spending.
Elections have consequences.

You're basing this hypothesis on gasoline prices???? That ridiculous, the gas prices are being controlled by the sell off of the strategic reserve, so when that reserve needs to be refilled at an even higher price then what???? I won't even mention the point that only 2 weeks supply is far beyond high risk for the reserve.

Much More
 

Take it from me, it’s all about the oil market(how much a barrel is), refining and transportation. Selling from reserves is just a market influencer. I remember an accountant that was talking to the comptroller about gas prices one day.

True Story: The staff accountant didn’t even know the difference between gas (automotive type) and Marcellus gas (natural) and she had been doing entries for an eternity. This was all in front of the auditors brought in from Texas. The auditor went on to clarify and explain this very thing about prices. Many don’t understand the bottom line….It’s all MARKET. The price per barrel companies are willing to pay. Many ditzy people will never get it and accuse, accuse, accuse. There just isn’t a whole field knowledge or understanding that will ever be there.

I saw who the OP was, and immediately thought... oboy, another doom and gloom post. Wonder what he's whining about now. I have a suggestion, enjoy the time you have left, turn off your favorite news channel, people who don't watch it are much happier without all the actors telling us the sky is falling. It's a beautiful fall day, go outside and enjoy it.

Make that 2 trillion a year during the last administration 2017-2020

Inflation is not under control and when the bond yields increase again next week, after the shorts were closed out of their positions this week, it will be a concern. Not to mention the ever-looming debt balloon affecting most, if not all, countries.

Inflation
 

Gas prices are nowhere near the $2.30 price in January 2021.

Every time I see the word inflation which has been going on for years which means raising prices
I always wonder:
"Why do we still have the penny:?

Inflation DECLINE?
 

///

Inflation
 

Inflation has nothing to do with our current administration or any administration!!!!!!!!!!!!

Simple Economics........demand is outstripping supply and wages are at an all time high!!!
Thats spells higher prices. Like the dinosaur, if you don't adjust your budget you will perish. Lets add in the cost of computerization and you have runaway inflation.

The fed is the only way to decrease demand/higher interest rates. If the consumer stops buying prices will come down,BUT, they won't. Unlike the older generation they have no sense of things they need vs things they want. Its a conundrum. And it aint political.

Lets not forget the population growth. The supply of things has to increase past demand for prices to fall. The good news is savings interest rates at 5%, lock them in.
This situation isn't going away for a while, adjust.

If the Saudis want to turn off the taps and increase gas its at their whim. We are not oil independent. Strap in boys and girls, your in for a bumpy ride regardless of politics, they have just turned into entertainment and that is a dangerous situation. Hopefully we will not be attacked. Welcome to the new world. God bless the bubble!!!!!!!!!

No, Im sorry, you just don't understand the definition of inflation. It's not that difficult, you can even google it or ask a friend but you really need to first understand a concept before you start making accusations. However, you are partially correct on the blame game but the Fed has SIGNIFICANTLY MORE of an effect on inflation.

We won’t have any currency in near future, paper worthless anyway and coins can’t be tracked. Once online banking only way every invisible cent can’t be tracked, account for, And easily taken.

So, what saying once prices go up it’s new standard and inflation only affects that price point.

Oil on Decline
 

Crude dropped below 75 briefly, gas was below $3 in Wesley Chapel today. This is one driver for a decrease in inflationary pressure.

Well you have to set date parameters like month over month or on an annual basis. You just can't take say gas at the pump today is $3 and tomorrow it jumps to $3.6 because of a pipeline attack and claim inflation's at 20%. The OP said "inflation decline", this DOES NOT mean prices are falling. It means THE RATE OF PRICE INCREASES are falling. Hypotethically speaking, gas was $3 on 1/1/2022. Inflation was 8% is 2022, so gas on 1/1/2023 would be $3.24. Inflation for 2023 is 4%, so INFLATION IS FALLING. However, gas on 1/1/2024 would be $3.37. $3.37 is a HIGHER PRICE than $3.24. So, prices can rise and we can still have inflation falling, or what is referred to as a disinflationary period.

Fooled you didn't I? :kiss: The post wasn't about all doom and gloom, it was a positive post about moderating inflation and interest rates not being forced up by the federal reserve, ha! So your intuition isn't always correct. . chilout

And this is only my second post in this thread, and you posted as well, so you are inside as much as i am inside, so since I never watch CNBC, (mostly read online) and it is a high of 40 degrees today, i don't consider this fall, i will post a second one while its dahhhhk and cohhhld out.

And who said i wasn't happy? Other than the weather, life is great!

All I know is when are interest rates going to come down so I can sell my house?

Hard to imagine under 5% without a deep recession. If your selling price is right someone will buy it with the hope of refinancing in the future.