Is The Villages Sustainable?
 

With the cost of living in The Villages continuing to climb is it sustainable? We moved and purchased here 17 plus years ago. Some years prior, we met and shook hands with Harold Schwartz during our first visit. We have seen and experienced some “things” in The Villages.

My wife and I grew up in a coal mining town. I can remember going to “the company store.” The town was prosperous and growing until it wasn’t. The mines closed, many moved and the owners left town with most of the money. Population is half what it was. You could buy a house for a “song and dance.”

Will the next generation of retirees be able to afford The Villages? With insurance, taxes, amenities and maintenance costs continuing to climb will those on fixed income be able to stay in The Villages? What could happen to real estate values? In 15-20 years will the Developer close up shop, sell and leave? Is The Villages, as we know it, sustainable for the long haul? I can think of other scenarios but you see my point.

The next generation of retirees will have more wealth than the last generation. The house they sell will be worth more, wages are higher, the stock market had bigger returns, defined benefit plans (with little COLA increases) have been replaced with defined contribution plans.

As long as the Villages adapts (and the last generation seems to not like all the adaptation being made) - but they are for the next gen, not the last gen

The economics are different.

This isn’t a coal mining town, the economy of the villages is based on not producing anything’s, except an active retirement - apples and oranges.

Something new and exciting will come along. It always does! When it does, the Villages will be forgotten. Nothing lasts forever.

It seems to me, if you want to retire in a warm-climate retirement community with things to do, you'd be hard pressed to find one more affordable than The Villages.

4.4 Million people in the USA will turn 65 next year. The largest number in history. As long as they keep making old people, The Villages will be a prime area for retirement.

...and with each generation living longer, people will be looking to fill their (more active) retirement years with the sorts of activities that The Villages provides

It al depends on overall economic factors, just because a large number of people want something doesn't necessarily mean it will happen. The large number of people retiring are no longer part of the workforce, nonproductive yet still consumers, living on retirement plan income, savings, entitlement programs. The developer certainly tries to sell the "lifestyle" to as broad an economic segment it can but I think over the long term supply/ demand and economics will raise the bar as to who can afford to live here

Sustains for how long, and in what form? The Villages I see when I drive to Orange Blossom is nothing like the model I see being built down by Franklin Rec Center. Where I live, in Poinciana, is different from either of those.
Nothing sustains forever, and to sustain as long as it has, it has been necessary for The Developers to adapt their product to the changing market, presented by subsequent generations of retirees, or near-retirees.

What the OP may see as evidence of a lack of sustainability is, IMHO, the required ingredient for sustainability: the ability to adapt.

I do not believe the rate of growth of TV, as experienced in the last decade, is sustainable, but the general model of shared amenities, and current level of population density, with maybe some minor tweaks here and there, will be sustainable through my, and if they desire it, my kids' retirement years.

The Villages will continue to adapt and evolve has it always has - the community is so different now than it was 25 years ago, and yet still continues to thrive. It’s expensive living anywhere, and retiring to warm weather destinations will always be a draw. So many of my generation and younger live now or came from very expensive housing market areas, and saw our cost of living dramatically decrease by moving to Florida and The Villages (even with current insurance rate increases). Many of us paid cash for new homes here, based on the equity we had built up, with money left over for other things (housing upgrades, travel, etc.) This seems to be true for many of the new residents south of 44.

What happens to The Villages after we’re all gone is anyone’s guess, but for now and the foreseeable future, I see The Villages as a continued “draw” for the last of the boomer generation and the gen-x generation that is starting to relocate here.

"Next generation"? I couldn't care less. Half of us Baby Boomers are still waiting for retirement -- that's enough to see me through. And I don't know about you, but my kids are so much better off than we ever dreamed of being that the Morses would have to start building retirement ranches and mansions to get their interest.

I'm more worried about the country coming unglued than I am The Villages!

I was just thinking how The Villages is so large now that I will never see all of it. We are in LSL area so to go to the southern part of TV is like going to Leesburg or Ocala. My concern is not if people will keep moving here but if they can continue to maintain the quality of the services which some will say have already slipped.

As long as there are retirees from "up north" they will come. They always do.

Its hard to predict the future, but the Villages has maintained a lead position in retirement communities for many years and will probably continue to do so for some years to come. I think it will depend on where the builder takes the Villages and whether they can rectify some of the creeping problems such as overcrowding and the lack of commercial establishments in the newer sections. After a few years here you begin to realize that having over 100 pickleball courts that are full constantly is no better than 8 courts in a smaller community with more availability. Anticipated Commercial business is not keeping up with the Villages expansion. With the premium price we pay to live in the Villages the comparisons to other, smaller communities may begin to be not as favorable.

Boomers wealth
 

You are spot on Boomers and the silent generation could pass on a huge amount of wealth to the Millennials generation.

Moved here 10 years ago and took awhile for the Commercial business to take root so not sure because you think it's "Anticipated" it should appear now. Also, Commercial business will show up when their business plan works. That will take some time. I'm seeing a lot of commercial development now and that creates a whole bunch of other issues :)

Moved here 10 years ago and took awhile for the Commercial business to take root so not sure because you think it's "Anticipated" it should appear now. Also, Commercial business will show up when their business plan works. That will take some time. I'm seeing a lot of commercial development now and that creates a whole bunch of other issues :)

Good point, didn’t even consider the generational transfer of wealth.

We have always had the family home, the lake house, an investment in TV, plus our home. Our kids have their main residence, an investment home on barrier island in NC, and SC. Eventually they will all have the lake house. Difference between us and kids they had multiple homes by 30s, we were in our late 40s. Plus two are DINKs, middle child, has 2 in med school, and one coder nerd

The Villages isn’t for everyone, and I don’t say that to be elitist. It’s not the cheapest alternative, and it’s always been somewhat difficult for people who have only Social Security, never earned much, and didn’t have much equity in a home before moving here. However, there are many areas of the country where average housing is more than here. Many “fixed incomes” like Social Security have cost of living allowances that help a lot. Many people sell their homes elsewhere and have enough equity to move here and pay cash. The amenities fees are very reasonable indeed. I know people who live in trailer parks within twenty minutes of here who are paying $450 to $850 for a tiny lot for their trailer. People who retire today with only Social Security may have been earning a lot more than you earned before retiring and so may receive much higher Social Security. I think there will continue to be a market for both used and new homes in The Villages so long as it is kept immaculate the way it is now. There are plenty of small towns across the country where a three bedroom ranch house that is just fine sells for around $100,000, and those people will have a tough time buying here unless they have another source of income, but there will still be plenty of people. I think the biggest problem is home insurance rates. The state needs to solve that, perhaps by limiting lawsuits. But not everyone needs to move to Florida. And if you worry about there not being enough people to keep buying homes here, don’t complain about there being too many people.

An easy solution would be to lower the age requirement from 55 to say 53, etc. That way you will attract those still in the workforce and/or younger retirees.

I see the breaking point as medical care not enough hospitals or doctors for the large elderly population. They were going to add a hospital but cancelled because they couldn’t get enough doctors to staff the ones we have so why build another.

The sustainability depends on the developers and the residents. As long as the developers can make a profit, changes are they will continue. As long as the residents stay as residents and not want to “change” things like they had back home, or want to “control the greedy developer” TV can continue for many years. Should the developers STOP developing and making a profit, they’ll leave everything to the residents (after sell properties to them) and TV will slowly decay like your mining town.

I sure hope the Developer never decides to abandon the community and turn over its governance to the residents. If you look historically at Sun City and a Sun City West Arizona, that is exactly what the developer (Del Webb) did after those communities were “built out” - Though still nice communities, deeds and restrictions became less restrictive, giving more control to the residents, which have created an “inconsistent” feel in their respective communities. The pristine and beautiful community we live in, is because of the control the Developer has over The Villages, and why many of us chose to retire here.

I thought they cancelled the hospital because of the possible impact fees on the construction.

Young doctors want new facilities, what young doctor wouldn’t want a brand new hospital, in a warm, no tax state, with literally hundreds of thousands of aging patients?
If I ran an orthopedics practice, I would open 10 offices around TV.

After WW2, my dad graduated college & law school, and joined the FBI when a friend applied and found out it paid $5500/year!!! Later in the 50s, dad opened a law practice in our hometown, bought a 3-story home on a hill in town for $18k. When my parents passed, it sold for much more and lawyers made much more than $5500/year. Times change and wages, income, retirement, housing, etc. all go up. I bought my house 9 years ago for $121/sq ft, my neighbor just sold their house for $265/sq ft, and I hope I can do as well this year selling mine. For reference, my neighbor's house is 20 years old, not updated (but well kept), and it sold for more per sq ft than my new designer home in TV!!!

IMO, What TV REALLY NEEDS is to attract more physicians and open up TV medical facilities to all payors (e.g. government Medicare). Healthcare availability in TV is what I see as biggest issue. Access to healthcare will drive decisions of retirees.

20% of TV is available to those under 55 provided they don’t have kids under 18. Quite a few “younger” people now living in TV.

TV. Is still a cheap place to retire, especially if you live here year round and sold your more valuable home from the northeast or west coast, you’re ahead by hundreds of thousands of dollars
If your retiring now, you’ve never been richer when you count the value of your house and your retirement portfolio
Demographics favor retirement places like TV as oldsters favor a warmer climate with lots of activities. Greed could be their undoing, if that happens I’ll just move

Good thing you don’t run a practice, 10 offices, staff, equipment, rent, would eat you alive. Plus not only wouldn’t you not have a life, burn out would be eventual. Plus can you imagine that many physicians getting along.

Average practice (to make profits) one main office, then one or two shared office used on that drs day off, or use half day.

One physician wouldn’t spend hours traveling when they can make money in one place. If you are good at what you do, patient will travel hours to get that appointment.

We had a practice with 4 orthopedic surgeons, one PA, and CFA. 3 office staff, 1 X-ray tech, and shared PT. 1 main office, and 2 satellite 1/2 day offices. Even then some days it was a stretch if trauma hit ED.

Plus young newly board physicians don’t care if hospitals are new, they just want a place to land, make some money, then move on with experience. Have been involved with 3 new hospitals, takes awhile for the dance to become fluid

Requires an Act of Congress.

Unlikely

IMHO The Villages has a proven business plan that adapts as needed therefore sustainability within TV proper is not an issue. The threat to our lifestyle here is external.
Current rate increases for both home and auto insurance in this state are unsustainable.
Thousands upon thousands of apartments surrounding TV with little or no amenities. Overcrowding in the squares, pools and courts are not because of The Village's building fewer amenities. Last but not least healthcare, it’s difficult to sustain quality healthcare on a Medicare budget. Quality healthcare is a national problem, exacerbated in Florida and even more so in TV due to the median age.

I would not worry about it with everything else going on in the World. We are in the age where the Baby Boomers are all retiring at once thus the reason housing is going crazy. It will eventually settle down but the demand is a lot greater than the supply. Most of us moving here have made enough $$ to last our lifetimes hopefully. If invested properly the new retirees have way more $$ than those who retired years ago because we were paid more and had 401k's to invest in. I am not worried and I retired 6 years ago at 56. Just thank God you woke up today and enjoy youself.

FL and hospitals and elderly medicare and others forms of health insurance for retirees are a gold mine for scams and enrichment schemes.

The healthcare in FL is somewhat similar to the housing scenario, where the state laws and oversight are not focused on serving the communities, but are left to commercial enterprises (which includes non profit enterprises, as non profit only means that profits are not taxed the same way.)

Other states force and oversee the healthcare hospital systems such that they cover rural and other areas regardless of profitability, and then provide certain reimbursements for serving that population. . . not here in FL. .

I was kind of being facetious when I said 20 offices.
I was pointing out that TV is ripe with lots of patients.
And I wasn’t thinking a single practitioner, was thinking something along the lines of Rothman Orthopedics, (40 offices in 4 states).

:what:

It’s not the post- Boomer generation that has to worry it’s the one after that which experienced company downsizing and eliminating pensions and benefits. Not everyone has investments and 401Ks etc. Yes, that’s years down the road but it will get here eventually. Experts, meaning those who examine socioeconomic trends, say those under 40 won’t have the quality of life or living standards of their parents.

Age limits
 

Read post #25 it is spot on.

Inflation is everywhere - not just The Villages. If someone can afford to move here or anywhere today, inflation will be the same as years go by no matter where you are.

The villages will implode in 15 years. Next generations with no savings or pensions. No interest in golf, only video games.

Not in our family. The kids are doing extremely well. A MD, an optometrist, physical therapist and the most successful has a huge job in sales. They all save and live very well. 3 of the 4 play golf. They all went to good schools and are very successful.

My urologist office started as a 3 physician office, now has 46 physicians in tri county area, with 8 offices. Without the yearbook pics sometimes you didn’t know who staff was.

To get some peace he would come to the OR for quite time. As he said it’s time to leave the zoo, because when you have 46 personalities to deal with, something always fall through the cracks, usually a patient.

Medicare has become one of the better payers to doctors... The others have dropped to (or below) medicare reimbursements...

It used to be that you made most of your money off of the private insurance companies and you accepted Medicare/Medicaid as an afterthought...

That is no longer the case...