Highest number of listings in over two years and growing...
 

I have been interested in TV for several years and have been keeping a tally of available homes on a weekly basis for more than two years. I know my life is exciting and I need a better hobby. Currently as of 1-12-24 homes available for sale have reached a higher level than I have ever recorded and is growing quickly. Zillow 443 total listings/VLS preowned 492/VLS new 445.

The point being?

Good time to buy?

either trying to time the market, works for pricing but stuck with the current inventory available at that time.

or

wants to buy but can't pull the trigger,

(friends of ours did the same and took them 5 years to buy their house)

Doesnt that make sense? As the Villages builds more and more homes, the percentage of homes for sale may be relatively static, but the actual number would increase.

If there was a 1% number of homes for sale out of 1000, say, 2 years ago (or 10 homes on the market)
and another 2000 homes were built in 2 years, then 1% of 3000 is 30.....

I admit I am too lazy to look up the numbers, just shooting from the hip

Spoken by a young man. You young guys are always comparing yourselves to others.

Us old guys are just happy to be alive and we intend to enjoy each day.

I asked my wife of 52 years if she had any new year's resolutions and she said, "Try to be a nicer person." I feel the same way. I was a real a-hole a few times last year and I really intend to be better in 2014.

Craig, your hobby is fine. Enjoy being who you are.

Do you know what it was in late 2019 (pre-covid)?

Always a good resolution, sometimes needs a monthly reminder
:duck:

You missed a decade. I do that all of the time, myself.
I think not being an a-hole is an excellent resolution, and I am endeavoring to that high ideal as well.

You should be able to find something that suits you among all of those choices.

Like you, I kept a close eye on the TV real estate market for many (like 13) years before pulling the trigger. I was working up in NY State and the time was not right for me until a few years ago, post-retirement.

An interesting thing I found was that while the number of homes listed seems like a crazy high number, we scratched off about 70% right away because we had a specific idea of where we wanted to be, which for us was south of LSL, north of 466A, and not too far from the Odell Circle-Bailey Trail loop. Then we removed all of the villas, because we didn't want a villa. I wanted a golf cart garage (which I didn't get but I did get an expanded garage which covers my needs), then I wanted a floor plan with the guest suite separated from my bedroom, and it had to be over a certain square footage, and under a certain number of dollars....and after all my wants and don't wants, the inventory was not that big, so....

If you are really really interested in TV, now may be the time to make a jump, and find a place that adequately meets your criteria.

Since this is your dedicated hobby, over the last few years, your stats have reach the highest level, in January 2024. So what is the monthly percentage from last quarter of 2023 to January 2024.

Did the percentage grow each month in that percentage, making the statistics higher for January? Or did January increase greatly from the last quarter months.

Wouldn’t the new on the market be consistent as builds are released, was there a plateau on new vs preowned.

Are the new unsold homes in a certain areas, that seemingly are making new buyer take pause.

When Richmond East is released, bet there will be10 plus names on the list, village will be sold out in an hour of release. So new builds could just be a stall due to location.

In 2021 & 2022 there was so little new and preowned on the market stats weren’t really available. Our home like many others never hit online statistics since many were sold within days.

With rates still high, our financial guy thinks it will be end of 2024 before housing comes back to normal. But that’s his prediction, and he did tell us that home sales would greatly slow starting in November of 2023. Which it seems they have.

So in addition to your regular stats separate out new build by village, for comparison to see what is sitting or selling. That would give you a better idea on market for new homes.

Inventory
 

Inventory is trending up across the state. Perhaps the lull or peak buying time will be July or August? Analyst’s predictions are all over the place after that. For sure, now isn’t the time to buy. Prices are dropping in almost every market, not just here.

I have driven through Dabney and I have driven by Eastport. If there was no rush to buy, I would think most people would much prefer Eastport - a new town square with tons of golf courses and it appears that there will be a fair amount of commercial space. All of this should be within a 15 minute drive by golf cart for the new Villages being built in Eastport. Dabney would be a tough sell - unless the prices are significantly lowered to compensate for location, location, and location.

I expect that millions of people living up north are going to consider moving to Florida after this weekend! YIKES!

http://hp2.wright-weather.com/icons/us_chill.gif

“Good time to buy”? Since 2006 I have “watched” the real estate market in The Villages. Many many houses are over priced IMHO. Even the Developer is discounting some new homes south of 44. Inventory of new homes is high in part because of the lack of commercial (supermarket, restaurants, etc.) south of 44 and high interest rates. Those that have a mortgage with a low rate but would like to move up into a “pricey” new or resale home won’t pull the trigger until interest rates move lower. No, I would wait to buy until the second or third quarter of 2024 unless I had cash and had to have a home immediately.

you will never know the exact perfect time to buy until it has passed.

Things are greatly changing in the villages as younger residents move in. Their main concern is not commercial and retail. They are looking for a better lifestyle something that will improve their health or keep them healthy. Retail definitely going by the wayside hoping for better fitness venues than stores.
Why go to grocery when you can order anything you need, delivered when you want. My parents at 90 don’t even waste time in a grocery.

As far as retail new gens rarely go to brick and mortar. I’m not sure if our grandkids shop in a brick and mortar, LuLu Lemon just arrives at your door step.

Meaningless statistic. So many south of 44 flippers asking absurd prices

Ths point is last year this time there were app 300 homes for sale, today over 1,200. The end is coming.

The problem with buying now is the preowned are way overpriced and new construction is basically in the northern suburb of Miami. I drove from Brownwood to Lake Denham, it felt like a half hour.

Here is your post from Jan 2023, are you sorry you finally bought in TV? Some would call all this fearmongering,

"Default The end is near?
Of the rental market that is. I'm staying in Richmond on a small block, in that block 4 of the 12 homes are rentals, 2 of which are rented. Today on one of the rental sites there are 49 homes for rent in March. With new rentals coming on the market every day, Ya gotta wonder if home rentals in the Villages are the soon to be crash that everyone is fearing."

We all saw it coming
 

Most of us saw this initiate fruition the 2nd or 3rd week of September as the absolutes in hard data were pouring in. Expect some equilibrium of availability soon as far as stats with a growing reserve of sellers waiting for market opportunities to change before attempting liquidation.

There will be a strong possibility of FSBO (For Sale By Owner) postings to offset some losses.

If I was just retiring, there would be zero rush to buy or sell. Chill like the true hunter and sit in one place. If you want to sell, then sell, but I wouldn’t repurchase. It would be better to rent because rental prices will and are decreasing in almost every market.

Hopefully prime season is mid to late summer.

....

Zillow shows pre-owned houses listed on MLS (multiple listing service). Realtors have access to those, but not the VLS. VLS new and pre-owned are only accessible to Villages sales agents. There's 3 types of listings - MLS, VLS new and VLS pre-owned.

And exactly why should we fear some sanity returning to the housing market?

My point is exactly what I wrote there are more listings than I have written down every Friday morning for a year.

Not trying to time the market I cannot buy until I retire in or around December of this year. Which unless something major happens is definitely our plan and then moving to TV full time...

I did not write down the numbers in 2019 but I was watching back then..

My wife and I have been doing the same visiting for about 10 years now. We will be down in February and again in May. We are really looking toward a December 2024 retirement and move to TV... Thanks for the insight and sensible comment.

So, I will give it a shot.
Oct 1 2023 zillow 363/VLS preowned 396/VLS New 298
Nov 3 2023 384 421 304
Dec 1 2023 422 427 346
Jan 12 2024 443 492 445

I am just watching the market because I plan on buying probably around the end of 2024. I was just posting an observation.

I live in Ohio by Lake Erie...Brutal weather coming...Thanks for the comment.

Many aren't selling bc they are overpriced..

The good news for the OP is that he now has a large selection of homes for sale from which to choose. At some point markets with growing inventory can saturate and sellers become competitive and willing to negotiate. It seems to me the OP has sufficient time to shop for what he wants and hopefully not overpay in a tight market. Building expenses remain high and boomers continue to retire in droves so I expect Villages homes will hold their value, at least during the next several years unless some unforeseen disaster occurs.

So not really much of a change considering how many homes are closing per month. But my suggestion to separate stats per village may help your research for a new home. Stats are great, but in the long run, you really need to make decisions on what home you want, do you want a new home or a preowned.

In 07 houses were selling before final touches were in place. Why because rumor was it was the end. Well that didn’t happen. In 2010 we bought in Pennacamp, basically 90% of this site told us we were so stupid buying so close to end of TV we would never sell. Took 15 days to sell,

Then we bought in Fernandina, again many on this site couldn’t believe we were buying so far far away from a town square. Sold that house in 5 days. Due to wanting a larger garage, we moved to a preowned near Seabreeze. Loved the house but not the location. However in 2014 didn’t want to move farther south, because my mom’s family was 3 minutes from that house.

A year before Richmond was a twinkling to residents we knew that was where we wanted to build. Yes we have a turnpike 3 streets over, and the normal amount of rentals that every new village has due to flippers.

But when we choose to move from LSL area, for this last house we made a why and why not list.
1. how many times into SS…three times a year.
2. How many times into LSL which was 12 minutes away….about 6 times a year.
3. How many times into Brownwood area 20 minutes away once a week.

So our determination on the fourth house was about would the lot fit our house and still leave room for a pool. Did it have a view out back, and how close to turnpike so we could quickly get on for travel to Gainesville, Orlando, and Disney.

Not at any time was what homes were selling, and where, or the cost of homes Our need for certain things is what made the final decision.

Sometimes all the planning and stats can go right out the window when you find what will work for you. As you can see we have lived in multiple areas of TV, No attachment to any house. I really think coming here and staying in multiple areas might change your entire strategy

I wonder about people and decisions. It is like when my mother and sister used to read Ann Landers. Some need to have others tell them what they should do. In the end it is your decision
right or wrong. Nothing is perfect. It is not third grade there are no he tried hard or do overs.
Far as the villages I would decide new or resale. Built or pick options. What can you afford to spend? What do you need and or want? Are you buying a place to live or an investment?
In terms of an investment reality the stock market generally does better than a home and is far more liquid. Our home has gone up quite a bit BUT, it is a place to live. Another place to live has also gone up. The place we sold also has gone up.

No, most would call this due diligence.

The bottom line is you’re not buying just a home, you’re buying a lifestyle. Come out, get to know people, join some clubs, check out the wood shops, and let home prices do whatever they do.

Craig - I'm the same as you, I like to really study a real estate market for a good period of time to learn it, see the range of properties, watch pricing and sales velocity, etc. Doing that has served me well in several home purchases and sales.

I'm watching TV properties carefully too, online. Will be down there for almost 3 weeks starting late Feb and if it checks out for me, I'll list my property here in metro Cincy by early/mid Summer and make the move late Summer/early Fall.

Depending on the circumstances of the buyer and their flexibility - I may fly down for a week and get something under contract and inspected - then move down into that purchased property. Or, I close here and move down to rent for a bit so, I can be local when I'm buying which I find to be the much preferred way for a variety of good reasons.

Best of luck to you and I think you'll find your time has been well-spent watching the housing market in TV for a long while.

You have to remember that today there are more homes in the Villages than ever before so it makes sense that there would be more homes for sale. Anyone looking should be able to find what they want. Interesting that there are over 400 new homes for sale giving not long ago there were lotteries just for people to put a deposit down and now over 400 new homes for sale, different times.

Multiple names still exist, it just depends on the village. Next multi name on release day will be Richmond East. All of Richmond proper (named from residents) had no less than 10 names on build lots some had over 30. Spec homes were the same in Richmond, multiple people on each home. Closest we got on 15 lots was more than 10.

All the while 3 other villages less than 10 minutes away had homes just waiting to buy.