Billion dollar disasters increasing
 

According to the Office of Coastal Management, the U.S. has an average of 18 weather and climate disasters annually.

In 2023, there were 28 weather and climate disasters with losses exceeding $1 billion. The combined total cost of these 2023 disasters was $93.1 billion.

I do not see insurance companies lowering rates.

Tomorrow.

NOAA issues its most aggressive hurricane season forecast on record
 

NOAA predictions are scary. Not only prepare for the storms but also be prepared for higher insurance costs.

When I see it I will believe it

Weather modelling has advanced more in the past 5 years than the previous 25. AI should accelerate that even more. Predicting weather is no longer "guessing" based on tea leaves and historical data.

On a day to day basis often get it wrong

But gets it right on a hour by hour basis.

Sometimes it does but often does not

You don’t even live here do you?

As someone who has lived in Lake County( not the villages) my entire life, I can say with 100% certainty that everything is worse now than it was in my lifetime.

Climate Change.

I’m laughing because even with a half dozen or more weather models and now AI ones, we still have to wait to see what actually happened.

No Hurricanes Last Year
 

Having zero hurricanes last year to several this year would certainly be a jump. Hurricanes come and go, we had several forecasted last year but none came even close. I don’t think the natural warming of the earth is doing anyone any favors, but it is a natural turn we must all endure. Some who chose to locate on the beach will endure more than those who chose to live on a mountain top.

Risk
 

Maybe not available at the coasts or high risk - ocean warming hurricanes

Does anyone have statistics about their forecasting skill?

Talking about predictions is fun! Making predictions is even more fun!!

Geoengineering is weather control. Who benefits?

The earth has always had changes in climate. Man made weather modification programs are creating "climate change". The Villages is not immune to what is happening.

The government is dimming the sun, HAARP (electro magnetic pulsing to interfere with weather patterns) and fun stuff like cloud seeding, stratospheric aerosol injections are aiding in the quite unusual storms, droughts and new terminology, stratospheric rivers. There is no longer secrecy in the fact that this is going on world wide. You can see it in the skies over The Villages quite often.

TN has passed a bill against weather modification over the skies of TN. Not sure it maters due to the global interactions world wide air space but at least TN gets it and cares.

Drought in FL but they say get ready for the worst hurricane seasons ever so be prepared for insurance hikes. Yeah The Villages is no different than anywhere else with a Wizzard of OZ pulling weather strings. San Francisco, Los Angeles and Dubai get it - floods due to cloud seeding.

At least The Villages is inland and further above sea level. Tornados (scare me) and lightning are the biggest threat in The Villages to me. The Villages does pretty well through hurricanes. Insurance hikes due to coastal issues yep every year normal. With our "climate change" weather is on steroids now.

These data are not nearly sufficient to support any reasonable estimate of what insurance rates would be in the future. They don't even mention the amounts covered by insurance.

Property insurance is a financial business that sells contingent claims contracts to owners looking to put a cap on potential losses on their assets over some time period, typically one year. In that simplified model, the companies must achieve a higher return than the roughly 5.4% available just by purchasing 1 year US Treasury Bills.

The contracts specify the contingencies that may be used to trigger the option to make a claim. The "rate" really is not just set by the gross amount of expected claims.
It should not be a surprise that weather losses are increasing. Even if weather were not getting any worse, the total property capital increases annually from new assets and inflation of replacement costs on previously existing real property.

I think most of us do not need advanced degrees in meteorology to see that the world does seem to be getting warmer and it appears this tornado season to have caused a serious increase in the intensity and numbers of bad storms in the Midwest.

What if anything we can do Nationally and globally is probably the issue to argue. I have lived long enough to believe that no matter the worries, people aren't going to give up their mode of transportation or the manufacture of goods. Insurance prices are based on graphs and solid statistics and if it gets more expensive to pay for damages and insurance, it's going to affect our pocketbooks, no matter where we live. We just got a notice this week that our home insurance will soon be cancelled.

I see that the guy across the street just had one of those big fancy generators put in next to his house and we bought a generator last year. My guess is that this Hurricane season is going to be mighty attention getting in Florida.

I think we are going to have more and more intense Hurricanes this year. I hope I'm wrong.

Florida was hit with one Cat 3 in 2023
 

NOAA Last Year
 

2023 from the NOAA
According to the new forecast, we can expect to see from 14 to 21 named storms with winds of 39 mph or greater. Of those, six to 11 of them could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater. Out of those hurricanes, from two to five of them could become major hurricanes, the report said. NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.

Fruition of Predictions
Atlantic Hurricane Season 2023 recap: 1 landfalling hurricane and it hit Florida

Here are the top 5 US Hurricanes
Labor Day Hurricane of 1935: 185-mph in Florida
Hurricane Camille (1969): 175-mph in Mississippi
Hurricane Andrew (1992): 165-mph in Florida
Hurricane Michael (2018): 155-mph in Florida
Hurricane Ian (2022): 150-mph in Florida; Hurricane Ida (2021): 150-mph in Louisiana; Hurricane Laura (2020): 150-mph in Louisiana; Hurricane Charley (2004): 150-mph in Florida; 1932 Freeport Hurricane: 150-mph in Texas; 1919 Florida Keys Hurricane: 150-mph in Florida

Yes
 

Yes, their over active season for 2023 fell short. We didn’t see 2-5

Living here 4 plus years!

When I stick my head out the windows, see dark skies and drizzle my Forcast record for heavy storms is almost perfect.

Homeowner’s decreasing premiums
 

Eight property companies have filed through state to lower premiums on average 5.9%. The new laws passed by the state are making a difference and helping stabilize the markets.

Which companies have filed?

Remind me of last years dire predictions and how wrong they were. Apparently they didn’t see their shadow this year.

This is the prediction for THIS year. Let's see what happens? If they are right, I will try not to be too annoying when I remind you. ;)

Correct
 

It was also their prediction for last year.

It's nice to see you here on the Forum Gracie.

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

It might have already fallen

In the last 10 years the land and ocean temperatures on average have been increasing and the oceans rising due to that HEAT. The added heat is caused by heat reflecting from the upper atmosphere more strongly due to CO2 increases caused by man's activities including Automobile exhaust. Likely Florida and other countries will see more and stronger hurricanes. New Internal Combustion Engines are being purchased in large quantities worldwide - so, each year, the problem will get worse.

In 2004 there was "Charlie" and so many others that they had to go to the Greek Alphabet for names.

No kidding!

And I notice that there are also now 2, 781 billionaires in the world! I don't think there was a single one when I was a kid. Do you think those two figures could be related? It sure is weird to think that maybe all that "global warming" is making billionaires!

But you know something? Even though there were 16 named storms in 2008 (the year of cat 5 Ike and cat 5 Rita, both of which passed over my Texas house), there were less than half as many billionaires in 2008 (it was the 1st year there were more than 1,000). 2008 had 16 named storms, 50 billion (2008) dollars in damage, and over 1000 deaths. Despite your alarming statistics, 2008 was the worst weather year in recent memory. My insurance then, and 12 years later, when I moved to Florida, was ONE QUARTER of what I paid last year, in a smaller and hurricane-resistant house, in a town that has never experienced a major hurricane or flood.

So, despite your "28" number, the number of hurricanes has actually decreased (one cat 3 in 2023), while weather damage merely doubled in the last 12 years (because the dollar is worth half what it was then).

Meanwhile, insurance bills have quadrupled, and the number of billionaires has increased by 150%.

Weird how that "global warming" works, huh?

A couple of weeks ago someone speculated the Jet Stream was more southern cooling us off. Another forecast gone bad.

What would you expect with inflation out of control the last three years?

What Is the Inflation for Each Year?
An average rate of inflation can be calculated for each year:

In 2023, the average rate of inflation was 4.1%.
In 2022, the average rate of inflation was 8.0%.
In 2021, the average rate of inflation was 4.7%.
In 2020, the average rate of inflation was 1.2%.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. "Historical Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)."

They are predicting an above average hurricane season in the Atlantic and below average in the central Pacific. It's a cycle thanks to La Niña. Cooler water in the central Pacific and warmer water in the Atlantic. So I guess it matters where you live. My friends in Hawaii are glad it is not an El Niño year.