Jamie Dimon claims a recession is coming
 

What do you think? I thought we were in one a couple years ago (2022) and I do think we will be in one soon. With the high debt in this country, the highest ever personal debt and soon coming more defaults on this personal debt, or war in the Middle East, or if we have any internal terrorist attack, any of these could trigger a recession IMO.

Here is what Jamie Dimon stated:

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday he still believes that the odds of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy are around 35% to 40%, making recession the most likely scenario in his mind.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty out there,” Dimon said. “I’ve always pointed to geopolitics, housing, the deficits, the spending, the quantitative tightening, the elections, all these things cause some consternation in markets.”

Lots of things out there that can push us into a recession.

We technically had one two years ago when GNP was negative for two quarters but the powers to be decided it was not.

Jamie just wants to be Treasury Secretary to sell all his JPM stock to avoid taxable gains.

Is that the same Jamie Dimon who in June 2022 told investors that we needed to brace ourselves for an "economic hurricane"? Since then the DJIA is up about 20% well above historic gains. Maybe he is not such a great prognosticator, or he has an agenda.

all finance people on TV always have an agenda, . . it's in their DNA, that's how they got the notoriety. .

Always do the opposite in most cases. . latest SEC lawsuit is for this exact reason.

These guys are like the weather forecasters, only right half of the time.

I am still working. I run the purchasing group for a Fortune 500 company. He is wrong - we are IN a recession. If we aren't we are going into one. Everything has slowed down, sales for all my suppliers are down, they are all asking for more orders. Commodity prices are falling - Cold Rolled steel coils are less than $1000 a ton, first time in a long time. I don't see a soft landing. Its not the end of the world, it is taming inflation. The fed is succeeding.

The real world is in a recession.

This is a very difficult thing to discuss on here, as some subjects are a no no to discuss.
I’ll just say we were not heading down the recession road several years ago. But things have happened and we are now.
In fact; we have been in the starting stages of recession for a few years now. Even everyone’s fav investing/financial guru Jim Cramer has been saying so. For him to admit this is an eye opener.

Thanks! feet on the street data is always the best!

Be sure that you save up for any layoff / relocation sr mgmt decision. .

We have been in recession for more than a decade. The inflation adjustment to GDP growth is based on a lie to cover for government incompetence. If you believe the published government inflation rate, you have not been to the grocery store lately.

You listen to Jamie Dimon, really! He was one of the major causes for the housing crisis in 2008. Were you worried about the US debt from 2017-2020? Jamie Dimon is fun of hot air.

Tend to agree. Real inflation is higher than what we are told it is.

You know what to do when our modems have issues?? unplug the sucker and wait about 20 seconds. How about simply unplugging the darn debt clock and waiting 20 seconds?
Problem solved....

There is a catastrophic depression coming when the US dollar literally fails. At $35 trillion in acknowledged debt (and multiples of that in unfunded liabilities), the Fed will continue to print, print, print and the spending power of the USD will go down , down, down. Eventually, there will be few buyers for the debt auctions which will force interest rates higher. And the cycle will just feed on itself.

Google "BRICS" if you are not familiar with it. What started out as 5 nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) is now a consortium that includes Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates. As of today, the BRICS nations' GDP exceeds that of the G7. The population of the BRICS nations is 45% of the world. About 40 more nations are looking to join BRICS which is poised to issue its own currency backed by gold. Our currency is backed by nothing except the world's acceptance post WW2. The world is now deliberately and quickly reversing that situation.

The goal of these nations is to dethrone the USD as the world's reserve currency. In doing so, the USD (and the USA) will be almost literally destroyed. Our greatly diluted dollar (think Zimbabwe) will buy almost nothing on the world markets.

Our leaders who continue to spend beyond our means are destroying our country. No matter who gets elected, this will be the outcome because none are interested in making hard choices.

My predictions:
1) escalating debt into 2025 with no end in sight.
2) inflation getting worse no matter what the fed does with interest rates
3) real interest rates will rise even if the fed lowers the fed funds rate
4) food inflation to skyrocket as the country's ability to grow its own food declines; anything imported whether food or not will get more and more expensive
5) business closures and job losses as far as the eye can see.
6) any number of "black swan" events (attacked by Iran or other, massive earthquakes or yellowstone blowing its top, terrorism from illegal migration, etc) could accelerate or exacerbate our decline.
7) crime & violence accelerating on a near vertical trajectory.

Jamie Dimon is wrong. The odds of a soft landing are 0%.

You won't recognize this country in 2028.

IMO were already in one, feds fudge/manipulate numbers to make it look better than it is?

The only way to reverse inflation is to slow the economy down. The economy is doing exactly what it’s supposed to do reverse that inflation. We are not in a recession because the unemployment is way too low. That’s the barometer of a true recession. Let the economy do what it has to do to bring inflation down. It’s never fun getting inflation down.

Keep in mind, we are NOT reversing inflation.
Reducing the inflation rate.
We are still living with the cumulation of ~20% inflation over the last three years.

As my guy from Chicago says, deficits and debts are bad, but with all that money in circulation, ride wave until you wipe out.

Just think about the inflation we have coming, withe the border closed to the agricultural imports from our southern trading partner, and the labor shortage in the Ag industry, then the tariffs that will run up prices of almost all the consumer goods we buy.
Save your money now, you are going to need it.

It's painful to read this but, bingo! You've hit the nail on the head and what blows me away is the fact that supposedly very bright people haven't grasped the whole picture of what is happening to this country and the forces behind it.

We continue to increase our population in a large fashion, gobble up valuable and productive farmland for housing and most people don't know how to get off their butts anymore and do physical labor. We are a very weak and vulnerable country at this point.

He'll be right eventually

Listen to Harry Dent and get some real perspective about the huge bubble in which we sit. And after the crash, it will take 2-3 years to recover, if we do... Printing so much money has made a huge mess.

If we were heading for a recession, would not the Fed start cutting rates last month? There are always naysayers on one side of a subject or another.

LOL. Harry Dent is the quintessential PermaBear. He has been predicting doom for decades. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day, but not Harry.

The unemployment numbers are as believable as the stated inflation rate. Fake stats. Unemployment "is down" bc people aren't getting full time jobs but working multiple part time jobs instead, huge swaths of people who stopped looking or retired early, etc.

If you really believed this, you would be selling your home in the US and moving to one of the up and coming BRICS nations. Are you?

I agree that you won't recognize the US 5 years from now. but maybe not entirely for the reasons you think.

Lol, Harry Dent predicted the bear market at the end of the eighties and early nineties and they laughed at him then too. But he was right on the money.

Wonder who will have the last laugh, if it's even possible in a few years.:loco:

That's the only solution you can come up with for the issues? I think that may be cyclops vision. :duck:

This is Village news?

Many people don't know that a recession does not track the stock market. The stock market usually peaks several months before a recession starts, then it bottoms out, but it starts to rise again during the recession.

Way back when in business school, a recession was when we had two successive quarters of negative growth in the gdp.

For some reason this indicator which was used for many years was ignored when we had this recently and it was decided we did not have a recession.

Also when people stop looking for jobs they are taken out of the labor force and not considered unemployed. This has been calculated in this manner for many years.

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Stopped clock. He predicted those bc he is always predicting doom and just happened to finally be right. The real question is how many times (correct answer= dozens) did he INcorrectly predict bear markets?

It wasn't intended to be a solution. It was a commentary on the conviction of his beliefs.

Any different than Jews leaving Germany in the late 1930s when they could see the writing on the wall? Those who left survived, those who stayed perished. Is it 1938 Germany in the US now? If the UK and Paris are any indication, maybe. My point was that if you truly believe it to be the case, why would you stay here?

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I believe that Mr. Dimon is the only finance expert predicting a recession. As I understand it, the US is the least likely economy to have problems.

Prices on everything have a tendency to INCREASE rapidly, but decrease slowly. The US middle class does not have the same strength that it did from 1950 to about 1980.

I believe that grocery prices are NOT included because they are so volatile.

I don't believe that right now there is negativity in the economy. In fact, it feels pretty positive.