The Sky isn't falling
 

14 threads currently running about Milton.

Get out of town. Board up the windows. Fill your bathtub with water. Fill your clothes dryer with ice. Hoard toilet paper.

As we say up north, "is this your first time on skates"?

Is this your first hurricane? Can't be, if you've lived in TV or Florida for more than a year or two. Where did you live before coming to Florida? Weather hasn't affected your life at some point?

New England has been hit with 71 Hurricanes or Tropical Storms, since I was born in 1953. One a year for me.

There have been 18 direct Hurricane hits in New England, since 1953. One every 4 years.

Close to 70 times in the last 70 years, Boston has been hit with a snow storm, dumping over 24" of snow in a 24 hour period. Worcester has been hit over 100 times in the last 70 years.

Doesn't the Midwest ever get bad weather?

Over the last 30 years, an average of 48 people per year, die from Hurricanes in the USA (136 if you include floods). Statistically, a non-event. (Weather Related Fatality and Injury Statistics)

The Villages is nearly 50 miles from the coast and probably has the most sophisticated drainage system in the USA.

Over-react much? Don't drive your golf cart through a flooded tunnel, you'll be fine. Friday is supposed to be 80 degrees and mostly sunny.

I know this isn't going to change anyone's mind or behavior, but this Chicken Little "the sky is falling" stuff is getting tedious.

The track is so wide for Milton which is causing anxiety
 

Wonder when the cone will narrow up on Milton. It could come ashore anywhere from Crystal River to Fort Myers.

Thank you !

The pressure has just dropped below 900 Millibars which makes it one of the most powerful storms in History in this half of the world. It will not be as bad as Tampa, but I would not be surprised that the death toll from this hurricane may very well be in the thousands.

Same goes with the constant threads and posts on climate change. I agree with you, it's weather. It's normal. It's cyclical. It happens. Prepare and deal with it like human kind has for millenia.

Then why read and react to it?
For many here, it [BIis[/B] their "first time on skates". No need to belittle folks with genuine concerns. With time and the grace of God, they may achieve your great knowledge and experience.

Weather? Yes. Normal? No. Natural, but definitely not "normal".

Considering the thousands of new residents we have in The Villages and for whom this is likely their first hurricane season, I'm glad their willing to ask their questions and raise their concerns to those of us who have been through this for many years.

Yes, it will be very rainy and very windy, but The Villages has been developed to mitigate flooding concerns and our houses built to the best hurricane standards in the country. And even during Irma, except for the historic district, lights mostly just flickered and power never went out for any period of time.

If I'm going to have to deal with hurricanes (I've lived in earthquake, tornado and blizzard sections of the country), this is probably the best place in the US to deal with them.

Videos showing 100 mph winds
 

It looks bad!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezIqFyjAUP4

Can you resist 100 MPH hurricane wind? - YouTube

Yes it is. Or soon will be.

Gracie, I hope you’re wrong about the death toll, but some people can’t or won’t evacuate when they should.

Or build homes in areas that are an accident waiting to happen

In the modern era of hurricane detection and warning and within the continental US it looks like there has been one hurricane that caused over 500 deaths in the US and maybe five, counting Helene, that caused over 100 deaths in the US. Given that, I would be very surprised if the death toll from this hurricane is in the thousands

But we shall see.

EDIT: In a USA Today article from this month they count one over 500 and nine over 100 if Sandy is included.

So why start a 15th?

There were quite a few very large oak trees uprooted when Irma came through along with trailer trucks flipped over, if this one is as mean as they are saying I would expect to see many more uprooted this time along with some of the "ornamental palm trees". The sky isn't falling but there are plenty of legitimate warnings about how bad this one could be. Tomorrow will tell the tale so just be prepared.

I really don’t see thousands, as a death toll. I-75 north was a parking lot yesterday, and turnpike was moving at a slow pace as we drove to Disney. Looks like the normal get out of dodge traffic. It’s not like this is the first rodeo for Florida Costal residents. Plus with prior loss of homes, new buildings are at better code on the coast.

Parks are basically empty, and a very nice weather day. Disney Springs will be where the masses will land.
Many guests seem to be here just for a room. Value hotels seem very full from evacuations. Moderates busy, DVC not as busy.

Six USA hurricanes with over 500 deaths. Yes, they were in the late 1800's and early 1900's, except Katrina and possibly Helene being number seven. 8000+ lost their lives in Galveston, TX alone. 19 hurricanes with less than 1000 and greater than 100 deaths. I get your point, but your statistics aren't correct.

Thank you. I continue to be disappointed at how often posters make up stuff and present it as fact when a simple google search will get them accurate data.

https://<a href="http://www.wundergr...a> Underground gives data only for storms thru 2007 and matches your numbers.

But digging deeper since 2007 there have been many killer hurricanes not in that data set:
Helene 2024 214 and climbing
Ian 2022 156
Harvey 2017 103

There are also several just since 2007 in the high double digits:
Irma 2017 92
Ike 2008 85,
Ida 2021 87
Michael 2018 59
and Matthew 2016 52

Note that Sandy which struck NJ and NY hard is not included as it was not a hurricane when it hit, "just" a tropical storm. Deaths 159

Lastly " Bill14564 It looks like there has been one hurricane that caused over 500 deaths in the US " is taking a very narrow view of the US when he seems to mean mainland. Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are part of the US, and both these have lost thousands to hurricanes.

I will change that to say “in the modern era of hurricane detection and warning.”

Edit: … and “Continental US”

(the accusation that I just made stuff up is untrue and quite insulting! If I was writing a paper I may have been more clear about the era and the Continental US. I wasn’t writing a paper, I was questioning “thousands”)

Definitely not my first rodeo with hurricanes, I'm from Connecticut and lived in Boston for 7 years. HOWEVER -

In Connecticut, I lived in a house with a basement, the houses were constructed in the 1950's and 1960's, and weren't going anywhere. We had minor damage, and we were safe under the house in the basement. If the hurricane had blown the whole house away, we would've been fine. Wet and sad and annoyed, but fine. Just like most people who lived in houses INLAND in Connecticut who had basements.

In Boston, I lived next door to the fire department in a walk-up apartment over a store that was constructed in the 1930's. I sat the hurricane out snug as a bug in a rug in the fire department's truck bay, watching broken tree trunks and other debris blow by.

Here, we're in a manufactured home, with no basement. I think I'd be safer in a tent in the Ocala Forest than I am in my own house tomorrow night. But we'll see.

Most interesting FL Hurricane fact:

There were no hurricanes making landfall in FL between October 2005 and September 2016.

That’s 11 years. Weather be random and a trait of randomness is clusters, like galaxies / solar systems in the vast universe

I wouldn’t get too cocky yet, can always spin up tornado. If you’re under it don’t matter how big it is. :faint:

Need a reality check?
 

Try selling that 50 miles inland crap to the folks in Asheville and surrounding areas. I'm 100 miles inland and had $28K worth of damage during Irene in 2011. The Villages is inland but also vulnerable. I hope you do well during the storm.

Oh, but there’s WAYYYY to much money 💰 involved in the climate cycling propaganda.

Enjoy life when your time comes there is not much you can do about it.
There is a new disaster every year, this is just mother nature's way of thinning out the heard.

Maybe because people tell them the sky isn’t falling but for some it very well may.

People who say it is weather it will pass get over it are doing people a dis service. I have been here since 2015 and this is the first hurricane that will have hurricane force winds as it goes over the Villages.

That a lot of typing!

A good dose of common sense. Thanks!

The center of the circulation will not go over The Villages but the wind field is broad. The track of the center of the circulation will be well south of us. While we will see some gusts, the probability of sustained hurricane force winds is on the order of 5-10% according to the NHC.

The entire thing is ludicrous. These people are like "preppers", who think the world is going to end tomorrow.

The folks living in mobile homes in the "historic" part of The Villages, are at risk every time it rains, that's their choice.

The rest of The Villages is about as protected as one can be in Florida. The odds of folks living in TV being seriously hurt or having significant damage, is substantially lower than the odds of them dying in their car while evacuating.

Checked Windy: Wind map & weather forecast this morning and it shows the cone has moved south of the Villages. Orlando is still inside the cone but close to where we were yesterday. And instead of it going from a cat 3 to a 2 as it passes below us it has changed to 2-1. So if accurate we appear to be dodging another one, but I'd still keep looking at updates today. We have a river flood warning and my house is about half a mile from Lake Okahumpka so I'm concerned on how high that will get. Getting the Kayak ready.

Edit: corrected the word track to cone.

Death toll in the thousands?
 

Wanna bet?

The NHC track has been south of us for a few days. On Sunday, there were a few model results that had the center of the circulation in our vicinity but the cone of possibilities was quite wide. Sustained 30-35 mph winds for about 12 hours is certainly possibility.

Old cranky and jaded outlook. When a hurricane has a center measured below 900, you better be paying attention. Thank goodness it is forecasted a little farther south than ordinarily forecasted. Good for us, bad for others. Still gusts of 80mph here can take shingles off and caused many things you’ll have to fix. Pay attention and be ready for any changes. The key to emergencies is to expect the unexpected. Mother Nature like to out guess you.

There have been only 7 actual tornados at landfall that hit New England since 1908. Of those, the highest Category at al small was a 3.
In the last 24 years, there have been only 3 tornados that all were tropical storms by landfall.

Since 2004, Florida was hit with 1 Cat 5, 5 Cat 4, and 5 Cat 3 hurricanes at landfall. This does not include Milton.

The hurricanes that hit New England are little babies compared to those that hit Florida. No need to pretend otherwise, we all know this.

Tornados??
That being said, just one experience near the eyewall of a Cat3 will change minds.
(if you were to survive it)

I corrected the word track to cone since I was referring to the upper edge of it which had moved south. I saw that the center was below us for the last few days. Don't want to confuse anyone.

The over/under is 10 .... if you don't count Lt. Dan in his 20' sailboat.

I read hoarders (but somehow couldn't repy there) and your comment here. The comment on "hoarders" is unnecessarily harsh. Using gas here isn't taking from those on I-75, etc. If it would, we whould have been told and would have complied. People gassed up in case of their need, and maybe to be able to drive to devasted sights with supplies, just as we prepped our properties re flying objects to protect ourselves and others.
Yes, most of us have been thru numerous weather challenges. That doesn't mean we should ignore this humongous storm, especially the elderly with physical challenges.
Lighten up guys.

Yes, I couldn’t reply either. I was challenged about the anti-siphon protection of modern car gas tanks and couldn’t mention that it is relatively easy to by-pass it and I have the pump but this is a public forum so perhaps I shouldn’t say more about it.